Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

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Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby DES » Nov 30th, '17, 15:30

Hey, I just like to "spread knowledge" and I share the goods! There are some people here in Kzone that do go to Cannon. Also, in the spirit of sharing knowledge, you should have typed "there" instead of "their"...
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Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby Nikoli » Nov 30th, '17, 16:37

Figured some here my like to know this.

A significant cold event is poised to make its way from Canada next Tuesday/Wednesday, through the Great Lakes, and into the Midwest and Ohio Valley before heading to the Northeast. This will be the most significant event of this short winter season thus far. Regarding temperature anomalies, expect a 1.5 or 2 sigma event with nightly lows in the upper teens/low 20s and daily highs into the 30s/40s. A secondary short-wave will bring reinforcing cold by the end of the work-week next week, thus extending this cold event into the second full-week of December. On top of cold temperature anomalies, an abundant flow of moisture combined with northwesterly flow should make for lake-effect snows in all of the usual places.

ERCOT will see reduced temperatures from this air mass as well. But, the freezing mark likely will not make it that far south and west. The North Zone may get in on upper 30s for nightly lows and 50s for highs, which will lead to increased load.

As weather vendors are often cautious/slow in forecasting such a sharp temperature change, your current load forecast for next week and the week after may not accurately reflect the magnitude of load which you will see. To better quantify your load for the first two weeks of December, please use the "Extreme Weather" module of our Demand Forecasting System. This tool will assist with your hedge planning for the upcoming two weeks.
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Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby Bubba » Nov 30th, '17, 20:49

Nikoli wrote:Figured some here my like to know this.

A significant cold event is poised to make its way from Canada next Tuesday/Wednesday, through the Great Lakes, and into the Midwest and Ohio Valley before heading to the Northeast. This will be the most significant event of this short winter season thus far. Regarding temperature anomalies, expect a 1.5 or 2 sigma event with nightly lows in the upper teens/low 20s and daily highs into the 30s/40s. A secondary short-wave will bring reinforcing cold by the end of the work-week next week, thus extending this cold event into the second full-week of December. On top of cold temperature anomalies, an abundant flow of moisture combined with northwesterly flow should make for lake-effect snows in all of the usual places.

ERCOT will see reduced temperatures from this air mass as well. But, the freezing mark likely will not make it that far south and west. The North Zone may get in on upper 30s for nightly lows and 50s for highs, which will lead to increased load.

As weather vendors are often cautious/slow in forecasting such a sharp temperature change, your current load forecast for next week and the week after may not accurately reflect the magnitude of load which you will see. To better quantify your load for the first two weeks of December, please use the "Extreme Weather" module of our Demand Forecasting System. This tool will assist with your hedge planning for the upcoming two weeks.


Obviously that forecast comes from an energy industry related source. Care to share?
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Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby Nikoli » Nov 30th, '17, 21:02

Escoware. It’s a retail energy software package. They send these from time to time to make sure you don’t go out of business. The polar vortex a few years ago took out a few companies in ERCOT
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Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby Bubba » Nov 30th, '17, 21:26

Nikoli wrote:Escoware. It’s a retail energy software package. They send these from time to time to make sure you don’t go out of business. The polar vortex a few years ago took out a few companies in ERCOT


Took out a whole bunch of companies throughout the country. Thanks.
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Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby Nikoli » Nov 30th, '17, 21:31

Bubba wrote:
Nikoli wrote:Escoware. It’s a retail energy software package. They send these from time to time to make sure you don’t go out of business. The polar vortex a few years ago took out a few companies in ERCOT


Took out a whole bunch of companies throughout the country. Thanks.

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Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby spanky » Nov 30th, '17, 23:39

Nikoli wrote:
Bubba wrote:
Nikoli wrote:Escoware. It’s a retail energy software package. They send these from time to time to make sure you don’t go out of business. The polar vortex a few years ago took out a few companies in ERCOT


Took out a whole bunch of companies throughout the country. Thanks.

True!

How? Due to crazy energy usage/spend?
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Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby Bubba » Dec 1st, '17, 08:36

spanky wrote:
Nikoli wrote:
Bubba wrote:
Nikoli wrote:Escoware. It’s a retail energy software package. They send these from time to time to make sure you don’t go out of business. The polar vortex a few years ago took out a few companies in ERCOT


Took out a whole bunch of companies throughout the country. Thanks.

True!

How? Due to crazy energy usage/spend?


Power prices jumped for the bulk of the winter and a number of smaller marketers as well as at least one larger one were either under capitalized or had simply left themselves unhedged to too great an extent. Lots more complicated than that but I'd have to write a treatise to fully explain what occurred that winter.
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Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby Nikoli » Dec 1st, '17, 09:58

Bubba wrote:
spanky wrote:
Nikoli wrote:
Bubba wrote:
Nikoli wrote:Escoware. It’s a retail energy software package. They send these from time to time to make sure you don’t go out of business. The polar vortex a few years ago took out a few companies in ERCOT


Took out a whole bunch of companies throughout the country. Thanks.

True!

How? Due to crazy energy usage/spend?


Power prices jumped for the bulk of the winter and a number of smaller marketers as well as at least one larger one were either under capitalized or had simply left themselves unhedged to too great an extent. Lots more complicated than that but I'd have to write a treatise to fully explain what occurred that winter.


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Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby spanky » Dec 1st, '17, 12:52

Nikoli wrote:
Bubba wrote:
spanky wrote:
Nikoli wrote:
Bubba wrote:[quote="Nikoli"]Escoware. It’s a retail energy software package. They send these from time to time to make sure you don’t go out of business. The polar vortex a few years ago took out a few companies in ERCOT


Took out a whole bunch of companies throughout the country. Thanks.

True!

How? Due to crazy energy usage/spend?


Power prices jumped for the bulk of the winter and a number of smaller marketers as well as at least one larger one were either under capitalized or had simply left themselves unhedged to too great an extent. Lots more complicated than that but I'd have to write a treatise to fully explain what occurred that winter.


Naked Positions![/quote]
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Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby MrsG » Dec 7th, '17, 09:12

27.5 degrees, no wind . . . and, it's snowing :wink:
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Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby snow4all » Dec 8th, '17, 12:54

Things beginning to look more positive :-)
http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby Dr. NO » Dec 8th, '17, 17:24

If you are traveling to / from VT, MA has already put out a Winter Storm alert. They were pre-deicing I-91 near Northampton. Storm track is :-x DC, NYC and Boston. Was going to clean up the yard in CT but covered in snow, nobody will complain about the branches and leaves I haven't picked up. If you are in VT, enjoy the POW and hope you get lots.
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Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby Mister Moose » Dec 8th, '17, 21:14

Not a direct hit for K as of now


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Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby tyrolean_skier » Dec 8th, '17, 22:18

Mister Moose wrote:Not a direct hit for K as of now


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Hate these types of storms where the snow falls in the flatlands where it's a nuisance and none of it falls in the mountains where we can play with it.
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