Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Communicate with fellow Zoners

Moderators: shortski, Bubba, spanky, SkiDork

Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby DES » Thu Nov 30, 2017 4:30 pm

Hey, I just like to "spread knowledge" and I share the goods! There are some people here in Kzone that do go to Cannon. Also, in the spirit of sharing knowledge, you should have typed "there" instead of "their"...
DES
Blue Chatterbox
 
Posts: 145
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2017 4:02 pm

Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby Nikoli » Thu Nov 30, 2017 5:37 pm

Figured some here my like to know this.

A significant cold event is poised to make its way from Canada next Tuesday/Wednesday, through the Great Lakes, and into the Midwest and Ohio Valley before heading to the Northeast. This will be the most significant event of this short winter season thus far. Regarding temperature anomalies, expect a 1.5 or 2 sigma event with nightly lows in the upper teens/low 20s and daily highs into the 30s/40s. A secondary short-wave will bring reinforcing cold by the end of the work-week next week, thus extending this cold event into the second full-week of December. On top of cold temperature anomalies, an abundant flow of moisture combined with northwesterly flow should make for lake-effect snows in all of the usual places.

ERCOT will see reduced temperatures from this air mass as well. But, the freezing mark likely will not make it that far south and west. The North Zone may get in on upper 30s for nightly lows and 50s for highs, which will lead to increased load.

As weather vendors are often cautious/slow in forecasting such a sharp temperature change, your current load forecast for next week and the week after may not accurately reflect the magnitude of load which you will see. To better quantify your load for the first two weeks of December, please use the "Extreme Weather" module of our Demand Forecasting System. This tool will assist with your hedge planning for the upcoming two weeks.
And the sea will grant each man new hope . . .
-Christopher Columbus
Nikoli
Slalom Racer
 
Posts: 1407
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 10:49 am

Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby Bubba » Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:49 pm

Nikoli wrote:Figured some here my like to know this.

A significant cold event is poised to make its way from Canada next Tuesday/Wednesday, through the Great Lakes, and into the Midwest and Ohio Valley before heading to the Northeast. This will be the most significant event of this short winter season thus far. Regarding temperature anomalies, expect a 1.5 or 2 sigma event with nightly lows in the upper teens/low 20s and daily highs into the 30s/40s. A secondary short-wave will bring reinforcing cold by the end of the work-week next week, thus extending this cold event into the second full-week of December. On top of cold temperature anomalies, an abundant flow of moisture combined with northwesterly flow should make for lake-effect snows in all of the usual places.

ERCOT will see reduced temperatures from this air mass as well. But, the freezing mark likely will not make it that far south and west. The North Zone may get in on upper 30s for nightly lows and 50s for highs, which will lead to increased load.

As weather vendors are often cautious/slow in forecasting such a sharp temperature change, your current load forecast for next week and the week after may not accurately reflect the magnitude of load which you will see. To better quantify your load for the first two weeks of December, please use the "Extreme Weather" module of our Demand Forecasting System. This tool will assist with your hedge planning for the upcoming two weeks.


Obviously that forecast comes from an energy industry related source. Care to share?
Image

"Abandon hope all ye who enter here"

Killington Zone
You can checkout any time you like,
but you can never leave

"The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function" =
F. Scott Fitzgerald

"There's nothing more frightening than ignorance in action" - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Bubba
Site Admin
 
Posts: 22577
Joined: Fri Nov 05, 2004 10:42 am
Location: Where the climate suits my clothes

Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby Nikoli » Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:02 pm

Escoware. It’s a retail energy software package. They send these from time to time to make sure you don’t go out of business. The polar vortex a few years ago took out a few companies in ERCOT
And the sea will grant each man new hope . . .
-Christopher Columbus
Nikoli
Slalom Racer
 
Posts: 1407
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 10:49 am

Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby Bubba » Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:26 pm

Nikoli wrote:Escoware. It’s a retail energy software package. They send these from time to time to make sure you don’t go out of business. The polar vortex a few years ago took out a few companies in ERCOT


Took out a whole bunch of companies throughout the country. Thanks.
Image

"Abandon hope all ye who enter here"

Killington Zone
You can checkout any time you like,
but you can never leave

"The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function" =
F. Scott Fitzgerald

"There's nothing more frightening than ignorance in action" - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Bubba
Site Admin
 
Posts: 22577
Joined: Fri Nov 05, 2004 10:42 am
Location: Where the climate suits my clothes

Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby Nikoli » Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:31 pm

Bubba wrote:
Nikoli wrote:Escoware. It’s a retail energy software package. They send these from time to time to make sure you don’t go out of business. The polar vortex a few years ago took out a few companies in ERCOT


Took out a whole bunch of companies throughout the country. Thanks.

True!
And the sea will grant each man new hope . . .
-Christopher Columbus
Nikoli
Slalom Racer
 
Posts: 1407
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 10:49 am

Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby spanky » Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:39 am

Nikoli wrote:
Bubba wrote:
Nikoli wrote:Escoware. It’s a retail energy software package. They send these from time to time to make sure you don’t go out of business. The polar vortex a few years ago took out a few companies in ERCOT


Took out a whole bunch of companies throughout the country. Thanks.

True!

How? Due to crazy energy usage/spend?
Never argue with idiots. They will bring you down to their level, then overwhelm you with their experience.

"I have noticed that when you post, you often say more about yourself than the topic you chose to speak about." -The Suit
User avatar
spanky
Site Admin
 
Posts: 5417
Joined: Thu Nov 04, 2004 10:50 pm
Location: 40.768N 73.982W

Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby Bubba » Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:36 am

spanky wrote:
Nikoli wrote:
Bubba wrote:
Nikoli wrote:Escoware. It’s a retail energy software package. They send these from time to time to make sure you don’t go out of business. The polar vortex a few years ago took out a few companies in ERCOT


Took out a whole bunch of companies throughout the country. Thanks.

True!

How? Due to crazy energy usage/spend?


Power prices jumped for the bulk of the winter and a number of smaller marketers as well as at least one larger one were either under capitalized or had simply left themselves unhedged to too great an extent. Lots more complicated than that but I'd have to write a treatise to fully explain what occurred that winter.
Image

"Abandon hope all ye who enter here"

Killington Zone
You can checkout any time you like,
but you can never leave

"The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function" =
F. Scott Fitzgerald

"There's nothing more frightening than ignorance in action" - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Bubba
Site Admin
 
Posts: 22577
Joined: Fri Nov 05, 2004 10:42 am
Location: Where the climate suits my clothes

Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby Nikoli » Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:58 am

Bubba wrote:
spanky wrote:
Nikoli wrote:
Bubba wrote:
Nikoli wrote:Escoware. It’s a retail energy software package. They send these from time to time to make sure you don’t go out of business. The polar vortex a few years ago took out a few companies in ERCOT


Took out a whole bunch of companies throughout the country. Thanks.

True!

How? Due to crazy energy usage/spend?


Power prices jumped for the bulk of the winter and a number of smaller marketers as well as at least one larger one were either under capitalized or had simply left themselves unhedged to too great an extent. Lots more complicated than that but I'd have to write a treatise to fully explain what occurred that winter.


Naked Positions!
And the sea will grant each man new hope . . .
-Christopher Columbus
Nikoli
Slalom Racer
 
Posts: 1407
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 10:49 am

Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby spanky » Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:52 pm

Nikoli wrote:
Bubba wrote:
spanky wrote:
Nikoli wrote:
Bubba wrote:[quote="Nikoli"]Escoware. It’s a retail energy software package. They send these from time to time to make sure you don’t go out of business. The polar vortex a few years ago took out a few companies in ERCOT


Took out a whole bunch of companies throughout the country. Thanks.

True!

How? Due to crazy energy usage/spend?


Power prices jumped for the bulk of the winter and a number of smaller marketers as well as at least one larger one were either under capitalized or had simply left themselves unhedged to too great an extent. Lots more complicated than that but I'd have to write a treatise to fully explain what occurred that winter.


Naked Positions![/quote]
Ah, that I understand.
Never argue with idiots. They will bring you down to their level, then overwhelm you with their experience.

"I have noticed that when you post, you often say more about yourself than the topic you chose to speak about." -The Suit
User avatar
spanky
Site Admin
 
Posts: 5417
Joined: Thu Nov 04, 2004 10:50 pm
Location: 40.768N 73.982W

Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby MrsG » Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:12 am

27.5 degrees, no wind . . . and, it's snowing :wink:
User avatar
MrsG
Postinator
 
Posts: 6727
Joined: Fri Nov 05, 2004 12:17 pm

Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby snow4all » Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:54 pm

Things beginning to look more positive :-)
http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/
snow4all
Green Skidder
 
Posts: 76
Joined: Thu Dec 25, 2014 6:26 pm

Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby Dr. NO » Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:24 pm

If you are traveling to / from VT, MA has already put out a Winter Storm alert. They were pre-deicing I-91 near Northampton. Storm track is :-x DC, NYC and Boston. Was going to clean up the yard in CT but covered in snow, nobody will complain about the branches and leaves I haven't picked up. If you are in VT, enjoy the POW and hope you get lots.
MUST STOP POSTING ! MUST STOP POSTING !

Shut up and Ski!

Why's Everybody Always Pickin on Me?
User avatar
Dr. NO
Signature Poster
 
Posts: 21113
Joined: Fri Nov 05, 2004 7:52 am
Location: In the Baah!

Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby Mister Moose » Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:14 pm

Not a direct hit for K as of now


Image
Image
User avatar
Mister Moose
Whipping Post
 
Posts: 8877
Joined: Tue Jan 04, 2005 8:23 pm
Location: Waiting for the next one

Re: Current Conditions 2200' 17/18

Postby tyrolean_skier » Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:18 pm

Mister Moose wrote:Not a direct hit for K as of now


Image


Hate these types of storms where the snow falls in the flatlands where it's a nuisance and none of it falls in the mountains where we can play with it.
Image
ImageImage
User avatar
tyrolean_skier
Signature Poster
 
Posts: 20629
Joined: Fri Nov 05, 2004 1:28 am
Location: LI, NY / Killington, VT

PreviousNext

Return to Chatter

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], Majestic-12 [Bot], Woodsrider and 8 guests