Science Rant, Not politics: Can CO2 cause "Climate Change?"
Moderators: SkiDork, spanky, Bubba
-
- Postinator
- Posts: 7029
- Joined: Mar 27th, '06, 13:33
- Location: In a maze of twisty little passages, all alike
Re: Science Rant, Not politics: Can CO2 cause "Climate Chang
Beachcomber parking lot was washed out earlier this season in heavy r*ins. Swallowed a car. Cahoon Hollow Beach was closed for a while. Glad to see that's sorted out.
As for 100 year storms, it's really a misnomer: it means that in any given year there is a 1% chance of a storm of that magnitude happening. A 500 year storm refers to a storm that has a 0.2% chance of happening in a given year. How they come up with those odds is open to question, however it is not based strictly on flood levels. More likely a meteorologist with an Ouija board.
Carry on with your ill informed ramblings.
As for 100 year storms, it's really a misnomer: it means that in any given year there is a 1% chance of a storm of that magnitude happening. A 500 year storm refers to a storm that has a 0.2% chance of happening in a given year. How they come up with those odds is open to question, however it is not based strictly on flood levels. More likely a meteorologist with an Ouija board.
Carry on with your ill informed ramblings.
- Mister Moose
- Level 10K poster
- Posts: 11619
- Joined: Jan 4th, '05, 18:23
- Location: Waiting for the next one
Re: Science Rant, Not politics: Can CO2 cause "Climate Chang
I'm sure we'll come back to this later.rogman wrote:Beachcomber parking lot was washed out earlier this season in heavy r*ins. Swallowed a car. Cahoon Hollow Beach was closed for a while. Glad to see that's sorted out.
As for 100 year storms, it's really a misnomer: it means that in any given year there is a 1% chance of a storm of that magnitude happening. A 500 year storm refers to a storm that has a 0.2% chance of happening in a given year. How they come up with those odds is open to question, however it is not based strictly on flood levels. More likely a meteorologist with an Ouija board.
Carry on with your ill informed ramblings.
-
- Site Admin
- Posts: 26305
- Joined: Nov 5th, '04, 08:42
- Location: Where the climate suits my clothes
Re: Science Rant, Not politics: Can CO2 cause "Climate Chang
The Beachcomber lot was damaged three weeks ago when the east end of the Cape got 5"-8" of r*in in about 4 hours. We were in Orleans and it was unbelievable with thunderstorms and pouring r*in from about 10:30 until after 2:00 AM. Guess they fixed the lot in the interim as it was pretty busy earlier this week when we tried to get in for lunch.rogman wrote:Beachcomber parking lot was washed out earlier this season in heavy r*ins. Swallowed a car. Cahoon Hollow Beach was closed for a while. Glad to see that's sorted out.
As for 100 year storms, it's really a misnomer: it means that in any given year there is a 1% chance of a storm of that magnitude happening. A 500 year storm refers to a storm that has a 0.2% chance of happening in a given year. How they come up with those odds is open to question, however it is not based strictly on flood levels. More likely a meteorologist with an Ouija board.
Carry on with your ill informed ramblings.
"Abandon hope all ye who enter here"
Killington Zone
You can checkout any time you like,
but you can never leave
"The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function" =
F. Scott Fitzgerald
"There's nothing more frightening than ignorance in action" - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Killington Zone
You can checkout any time you like,
but you can never leave
"The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function" =
F. Scott Fitzgerald
"There's nothing more frightening than ignorance in action" - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Re: Science Rant, Not politics: Can CO2 cause "Climate Chang
Moose apparently needs more time to recalibrate statistics.
Yeah, that was some freakish rainstorm a few weeks ago.
Caught a boatload of stripers that week.
Beachcomber is overrated. Mac's is still good.
We miss tying off at Thompson's.
Cape has been wicked crowded this year.
Yeah, that was some freakish rainstorm a few weeks ago.
Caught a boatload of stripers that week.
Beachcomber is overrated. Mac's is still good.
We miss tying off at Thompson's.
Cape has been wicked crowded this year.
Forever .. Goat Path
-
- Post Traumatic Stress Syndrome
- Posts: 3757
- Joined: Mar 29th, '12, 18:27
- Location: KMP Island
Re: Science Rant, Not politics: Can CO2 cause "Climate Chang
Heading out to chill on Pamet Harbor for the last couple of weeks of Summer. Just like Killington love when I have the place nearly to myself. Atlantic is close to breaking thru the Pamet River at Ballston Beach. Waiting for the big break where Pilgrim Lake and North Touro get swallowed by the ocean. Then it will be time to dig the P-town tunnel. Power of the ocean over a spit of sand is quite evident year to year. Sharks and seals seem to having a good year.brownman wrote: Cape has been wicked crowded this year.
If my words did glow with the gold of sunshine.
-
- Postinator
- Posts: 6587
- Joined: Feb 23rd, '06, 17:17
- Location: Where the host of Dancing with the stars lives.
Re: Science Rant, Not politics: Can CO2 cause "Climate Chang
Traffic on I-95 headed into Maine this summer has been wicked heavy starting Friday at 10 AM with backups at the High level bridge.brownman wrote:Moose apparently needs more time to recalibrate statistics.
Yeah, that was some freakish rainstorm a few weeks ago.
Caught a boatload of stripers that week.
Beachcomber is overrated. Mac's is still good.
We miss tying off at Thompson's.
Cape has been wicked crowded this year.
2 hours and 10-minute drive to K
2023/2024 Ski Days: 33 days for the season
Killington: 12/14, 1/4, 1/9, 1/11, 1/17, 1/23, 1/31, 2/5, 2/20, 2/26, 3/4, 3/20, 3/25, 4/2, 4/5
Loon: 11/29, 12/8, 12/21, 1/8, 1/19, 1/22,1/30, 2/7, 2/15, 3/1, 3/8, 3/22, 4/14
Sunday River: 3/12
Sugarloaf: 3/13, 3/14
Cannon:1/15, 2/22
2023/2024 Ski Days: 33 days for the season
Killington: 12/14, 1/4, 1/9, 1/11, 1/17, 1/23, 1/31, 2/5, 2/20, 2/26, 3/4, 3/20, 3/25, 4/2, 4/5
Loon: 11/29, 12/8, 12/21, 1/8, 1/19, 1/22,1/30, 2/7, 2/15, 3/1, 3/8, 3/22, 4/14
Sunday River: 3/12
Sugarloaf: 3/13, 3/14
Cannon:1/15, 2/22
-
- Site Admin
- Posts: 26305
- Joined: Nov 5th, '04, 08:42
- Location: Where the climate suits my clothes
Re: Science Rant, Not politics: Can CO2 cause "Climate Chang
If it's a good year for sharks, it's a bad year for seals. The day of the eclipse, a shark nailed a seal at Nauset Beach about 60' offshore about 45 minutes before we got there. Lots of video on NECN that night. We now pay attention to Sharktivity app on our phones.Guy in Shorts wrote:Heading out to chill on Pamet Harbor for the last couple of weeks of Summer. Just like Killington love when I have the place nearly to myself. Atlantic is close to breaking thru the Pamet River at Ballston Beach. Waiting for the big break where Pilgrim Lake and North Touro get swallowed by the ocean. Then it will be time to dig the P-town tunnel. Power of the ocean over a spit of sand is quite evident year to year. Sharks and seals seem to having a good year.brownman wrote: Cape has been wicked crowded this year.
"Abandon hope all ye who enter here"
Killington Zone
You can checkout any time you like,
but you can never leave
"The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function" =
F. Scott Fitzgerald
"There's nothing more frightening than ignorance in action" - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Killington Zone
You can checkout any time you like,
but you can never leave
"The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function" =
F. Scott Fitzgerald
"There's nothing more frightening than ignorance in action" - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Re: Science Rant, Not politics: Can CO2 cause "Climate Chang
Pamet River flats mussels plentiful this year?Guy in Shorts wrote:Heading out to chill on Pamet Harbor for the last couple of weeks of Summer. Just like Killington love when I have the place nearly to myself. Atlantic is close to breaking thru the Pamet River at Ballston Beach. Waiting for the big break where Pilgrim Lake and North Touro get swallowed by the ocean. Then it will be time to dig the P-town tunnel. Power of the ocean over a spit of sand is quite evident year to year. Sharks and seals seem to having a good year.brownman wrote: Cape has been wicked crowded this year.
How big are the carp in Pilgrim Lake ?
Say hello to all the shrinks in town
Forever .. Goat Path
- Stormchaser
- Level 10K poster
- Posts: 13760
- Joined: Nov 4th, '04, 22:32
- Location: Hot tub
Re: Science Rant, Not politics: Can CO2 cause "Climate Chang
And further, the 100-year storm event and the 100-year flood event are not the same thing. You can get a 100-year flood event from repeated smaller storms and climate conditions; the accumulation of which results in a flood that occurs with 1% frequency. 3 back to back 25-year storms could produce a 100-year flood event. r*in events cause flooding events; flooding events don't determine rainfall intensities or frequencies. Even beyond that, storm intensities are based on duration; flood events are not. There is a 100-year, 24-hour storm event. Also a 100-year, 48-hour event...7 day event, blah blah blah. Houston had revised flood maps published in January 2017 which appear to show extensive areas prone to flooding in and around the Houston area complete with flood water elevation levels, but what hasn't been revised (for anywhere in the US) is projected rainfall intensities. If you don't accurately predict rainfall intensities for multiple storm-duration events, you can't accurately predict flooding concerns. When rainfall intensity maps used for design of stormwater management systems (and flood maps) are outdated and off by orders of magnitude, flooding events will continue to occur with increased frequency. Depending on location, this means areas of increased flooding, areas of new flooding, and increased event duration... So which did Houston get? You can be sure the media/local government picked whichever sounded worst...rogman wrote:Beachcomber parking lot was washed out earlier this season in heavy r*ins. Swallowed a car. Cahoon Hollow Beach was closed for a while. Glad to see that's sorted out.
As for 100 year storms, it's really a misnomer: it means that in any given year there is a 1% chance of a storm of that magnitude happening. A 500 year storm refers to a storm that has a 0.2% chance of happening in a given year. How they come up with those odds is open to question, however it is not based strictly on flood levels. More likely a meteorologist with an Ouija board.
Carry on with your ill informed ramblings.
In my area, we are required to design stormwater systems to handle the 100-year storm event - 6.5" of r*in in 24 hours. That number comes from a Technical Paper from 1961. Current weather data suggests the rainfall intensities in this paper are grossly outdated. Research suggests that the 6.5" for my area should be closer to 14". 14" of r*in in 24 hours will surely change the limits, intensity, and duration of flood events. That additional rainfall isn't being considered in flood evaluations. Back to back storms and long duration storm events are never considered in stormwater designs. At a minimum we need to start engineering for current rainfall intensities, and not the conditions of 50 years ago. Houston is what happens when poor planning and poor engineering comes to a head. Understanding the causes, and then designing for the future should be the primary focus of climate research. Adaptations to the results of climate change will help prevent flooding events like those in Texas. Attempts to change the climate while ignoring the need to adapt to current conditions, creates situations like Houston. (Yes, Al Gore caused expanded flooding in Houston.) If the need to adapt to change, rather than the need to adapt to prevent change, was presented equally in the doomsday scenarios of carbon emissions for the last 30 years, stormwater systems in Houston would have had significantly more capacity to deal with large scale storm events such as this one. Who gets this Darwin Award?
-
- Site Admin
- Posts: 26305
- Joined: Nov 5th, '04, 08:42
- Location: Where the climate suits my clothes
Re: Science Rant, Not politics: Can CO2 cause "Climate Chang
Jaws nailed another seal yesterday off Nauset Beach, this time about 150' - 200' offshore. Thankfully we missed the event by about an hour. Don't need to see that kind of thing in person. Saw a lot of seals close to the beach yesterday, most swimming south entertaining those of us on the beach.Bubba wrote:If it's a good year for sharks, it's a bad year for seals. The day of the eclipse, a shark nailed a seal at Nauset Beach about 60' offshore about 45 minutes before we got there. Lots of video on NECN that night. We now pay attention to Sharktivity app on our phones.Guy in Shorts wrote:Heading out to chill on Pamet Harbor for the last couple of weeks of Summer. Just like Killington love when I have the place nearly to myself. Atlantic is close to breaking thru the Pamet River at Ballston Beach. Waiting for the big break where Pilgrim Lake and North Touro get swallowed by the ocean. Then it will be time to dig the P-town tunnel. Power of the ocean over a spit of sand is quite evident year to year. Sharks and seals seem to having a good year.brownman wrote: Cape has been wicked crowded this year.
Shark attacks seal near beachgoers at Nauset Beach
http://www.capecodtimes.com/news/201709 ... sfeed=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
(Via Cape Cod Times)
"Abandon hope all ye who enter here"
Killington Zone
You can checkout any time you like,
but you can never leave
"The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function" =
F. Scott Fitzgerald
"There's nothing more frightening than ignorance in action" - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Killington Zone
You can checkout any time you like,
but you can never leave
"The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function" =
F. Scott Fitzgerald
"There's nothing more frightening than ignorance in action" - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Re: Science Rant, Not politics: Can CO2 cause "Climate Chang
Going forward, I nominate the Fake President:Stormchaser wrote: If the need to adapt to change, rather than the need to adapt to prevent change, was presented equally in the doomsday scenarios of carbon emissions for the last 30 years, stormwater systems in Houston would have had significantly more capacity to deal with large scale storm events such as this one. Who gets this Darwin Award?
Trump Signs Order Rolling Back Environmental Rules on Infrastructure
...
A key element of the new executive order rolls back standards set by former President Barack Obama that required the federal government to account for climate change and sea-level rise when building infrastructure.
...
Re: Science Rant, Not politics: Can CO2 cause "Climate Chang
quite similar to the elimination and streamlining of permitting processes that allowed 107 to rebuilt so quickly....they didn't take any similar stuff into consideration such as could the water rise that high again...nope they built it virtually right where it was before, dredged and reclaimed gravel from the riverbed and used the white river a roadway....were you upset then???Coydog wrote:Going forward, I nominate the Fake President:Stormchaser wrote: If the need to adapt to change, rather than the need to adapt to prevent change, was presented equally in the doomsday scenarios of carbon emissions for the last 30 years, stormwater systems in Houston would have had significantly more capacity to deal with large scale storm events such as this one. Who gets this Darwin Award?
Trump Signs Order Rolling Back Environmental Rules on Infrastructure
...
A key element of the new executive order rolls back standards set by former President Barack Obama that required the federal government to account for climate change and sea-level rise when building infrastructure.
from your article:
President Trump announced on Tuesday that he had signed a sweeping executive order to eliminate and streamline some permitting regulations and to speed construction of roads, bridges and pipelines, declaring that the moves would fix a “badly broken” infrastructure system in America and bring manufacturing jobs back to the country.
...
and as you well know:
standards set in 2015 that never went in to effect....BFD...yer buddy DHS brought this irrelevant point up last week going so far as to blame trump for the devastation in texas...
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=42300&start=1710" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
just more ridiculous whining about nothing...or, the coydog who cried wolf...
mach es sehr schnell
'exponential reciprocation'- The practice of always giving back more than you take....
'exponential reciprocation'- The practice of always giving back more than you take....
Re: Science Rant, Not politics: Can CO2 cause "Climate Chang
Putting it in a large font doesn't make Gump's short sighted measure any less idiotic. Yeah, you can build roads and stuff faster if you completely ignore the consequences of climate change. I guess with Gumpenomics this is good for the economy since you get to build them over and over again.madhatter wrote:
from your article:
President Trump announced on Tuesday that he had signed a sweeping executive order to eliminate and streamline some permitting regulations and to speed construction of roads, bridges and pipelines, declaring that the moves would fix a “badly broken” infrastructure system in America and bring manufacturing jobs back to the country.
...quite similar to the elimination and streamlining of permitting processes that allowed 107 to rebuilt so quickly....they didn't take any similar stuff into consideration such as could the water rise that high again...nope they built it virtually right where it was before, dredged and reclaimed gravel from the riverbed and used the white river a roadway....were you upset then??? Plenty of Gump voters questioned this, including you. Gump, in his vanishing small wisdom, just made sure the practice would be federal policy from now on.
Re: Science Rant, Not politics: Can CO2 cause "Climate Chang
it never went in to effect...so what changed? they built 107 right in the same spot, same w many other places affected by flooding and hurricanes...I read the NYT article...not much to be concerned about...Coydog wrote:Putting it in a large font doesn't make Gump's short sighted measure any less idiotic. Yeah, you can build roads and stuff faster if you completely ignore the consequences of climate change. what consequences?I guess with Gumpenomics this is good for the economy since you get to build them over and over again.madhatter wrote:
from your article:
President Trump announced on Tuesday that he had signed a sweeping executive order to eliminate and streamline some permitting regulations and to speed construction of roads, bridges and pipelines, declaring that the moves would fix a “badly broken” infrastructure system in America and bring manufacturing jobs back to the country.
...quite similar to the elimination and streamlining of permitting processes that allowed 107 to rebuilt so quickly....they didn't take any similar stuff into consideration such as could the water rise that high again...nope they built it virtually right where it was before, dredged and reclaimed gravel from the riverbed and used the white river a roadway....were you upset then??? Plenty of Gump voters questioned this, including you. Gump, in his vanishing small wisdom, just made sure the practice would be federal policy from now on.
A White House official said that Mr. Trump’s order reinstated the previous flood management standard, issued by President Jimmy Carter in 1977, but that it did not prohibit state and local agencies from using more stringent standards if they chose.
The Obama-era rule gave federal agencies three options to flood-proof new infrastructure projects. They could use the best available climate change science; they could require that standard projects like roads and railways be built two feet above the national 100-year flood elevation standard and critical buildings like hospitals be built three feet higher; or they could require infrastructure to be built to at least the 500-year flood plain. The order did not regulate private development.
Trump unveiled a head-to-toe-length flow chart purporting to show the permitting regulations required to build a highway in a state he would not name that he claimed took 17 years.
“This is what we will bring it down to — this is less than two years,” Mr. Trump said, dropping the paper to the ground and revealing a new flow chart about a quarter of the size.
if this stuff is so important obama should have brought it before congress not issued an EO...congress can still act on it as well...it;s how our govt is supposed to work...till then nothing has changed so spare us the faux outrage...It also puts in place what the White House called a “one federal decision policy” under which one lead federal agency works with others to complete environmental reviews and other permitting decisions for a given project. All decisions on federal permits will have to be made within 90 days, and agencies will have a two-year goal to process environmental reviews for major projects.
“It’s going to be a very streamlined process, and by the way, if it doesn’t meet environmental safeguards, we’re not going to approve it,” Mr. Trump said.
mach es sehr schnell
'exponential reciprocation'- The practice of always giving back more than you take....
'exponential reciprocation'- The practice of always giving back more than you take....
Re: Science Rant, Not politics: Can CO2 cause "Climate Chang
Yeah, nothing has changed yet Gump claims he magically slashed permitting for a highway in some unnamed state from 17 years down to 2 years.madhatter wrote:nothing has changed so spare us the faux outrage...Trump unveiled a head-to-toe-length flow chart purporting to show the permitting regulations required to build a highway in a state he would not name that he claimed took 17 years.
“This is what we will bring it down to — this is less than two years,” Mr. Trump said, dropping the paper to the ground and revealing a new flow chart about a quarter of the size.
The sad reality is Gump only plays to his ever winnowing base with impetuous maneuvers like this. The only reason these sensible regulations were not already in place is because they were still in the public comment stage. Gump would have nixed them anyway - primarily because Obama did it and he wasn't even born here.
We spent $277B on federal relief from 2005 to 2014 yet only $600M on mitigation even though flood mitigation has a 4 to 1 payback. True conservatives and all taxpayers should be outraged.
Hmmm, I wonder if Gump will change his EO after he sees the bill for Harvey ...