So for the relevant air masses surrounding Killington how much ATMOSPHERIC warming are you claiming has occurred over the last two decades???Coydog wrote:I didn't claim we'd get more total snow, I said I expected less snow in the early and late season, but bigger storms than average during the mid-season.Mister Moose wrote:Air below 32F holds the same amount of moisture it always has. The only way you'd get more snow from higher moisture content warmer air is to modify the distribution of what air temperature occurs during the winter, ie instead of raising the temp 1 degree so that we are at 28 instead of 27 in December and -9 in February instead of -10, you would need to raise the temp in February, but not in December.Coydog wrote:
Let's see, increasing global temperatures lead to hotter air. Hotter air holds more moisture. (yes) More moisture means more snow in areas where it's still cold enough to snow but more r*in (i.e. less snow) where it's not. (NO!) So around here, I would expect less snow than average at the beginning and end of the season (too warm for snow), but bigger storms mid season (more moisture and cold enough for snow).
In any case, I'm sure the good folks who run Killington believe that global warming is a hoax and have apportioned their resources accordingly.
Higher temperature air can hold more moisture than colder air. If the temperature is below freezing, more moisture means more snow. An increase in 1F corresponds to a 4% increase in moisture holding capacity. So air at 32F has double the moisture holding capacity as 14F air.
Because air at 32F holds twice the moisture as 14F, a storm at 32F is generally more intense than a 14F storm. In fact, the sweet spot for really big storms is 28F to 32F.
So as the temps increase, in the spring and fall I expect more moisture to fall as r*in (above 32F). But mid-season, with temps warmer than average but still plenty cold for snow, there is more of a chance of creeping into that sweet spot, leading to bigger storms, though not necessarily more total snow. A few degrees warmer for temps well below 28F probably won't make much of a difference in terms of storm intensity.
Less snow early and late season, a rise in the number of intense storms mid-season. Unfortunately, so far it appears it all adds up to less overall snow for Killington.
We might agree that that number globally is less than 2 degrees (less that 1 degree in data sets I know) in the LAST CENTURY. US warming is probably less. And most consensus scientists agree that the ATMOSPHERE has NOT warmed even as much as 0.5 degrees over the last two decades.
So how did this minimal change in temperature lead to the SIGNIFICANT changes in moisture and temperature that would drive the dramatic changes in snowfall you are showing.
I think the regional weather patterns that drive snowfall patterns are NOT captured well in GCMs and mentioning atmospheric warming (however slight) let alone CO2 as a driver for changes in regional snowfall is a fool's errand.