Killington's Impending Infrastructure Collapse

[Highway Star]

All this talk about POWDR's Killington "capital improvements" (aka basic maintenance) lead me to ask the question:

The way Killington is going, where will they be in 10 years?

I first skied Killington in 1988, but started skiing there regularly in 2004. Ten years ago, in 2005, there was plenty of talk about neglect, old lifts and old lodges. Now ten years on, upkeep of the infrastructure has improved, but they rate of replacement is sorely lacking.

Since 2005, they have installed one new lift (reusing old towers), replaced a lodge and a section of a lodge. They have removed two lifts without replacing them. That is a net loss.

In the past 15 years (2000-2015), Killington has installed one lift (Skye Peak Quad).

In the 15 years prior (1985-2000), Killington installed 2 gondolas, 4 detachable quads, 3 fixed grip quads, and 2 double chairs. In most cases, these lifts replaced existing lifts that were 20-25 years old and lacked capacity.

Does anybody else see a problem with Killington's current rate of re-investment?

Snowshed and Superstar Quads were built in 1987. They are 28 years old. They are two of the oldest HSQ in the country. Pico's two HSQ are from '87 and '88. Are there any plans to replace these aging primary lifts, like Killington's competitors have done? If these lifts are not replaced in the next ten years, they will be older than any of the oldest HSQ's operating today.

Here's an example of an old HSQ, that was removed from Breck and sold after 20 years in service:



Love the comment:

I did 5 years as a liftie when I was younger been skiing for 20 years and this sketchiest chairlift i've ever ridden. Makes so many noises I've never heard on any other lift makes me wonder if i'm going to reach the top everytime.

The only other detach quad in VT that is as old is Mount Snow's summit quad. Killington has FOUR of these lifts.

Stowe recently replaced it's 1986 ForeRunner quad, which was very well maintained. But it was 27 years old, so they replaced it. BAM. Looks nice, doesn't it...?

http://www.newenglandskihistory.com/lif ... php?id=826" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

In the next ten years, Killington will have multiple lifts that will be getting dangerously old. We are already seeing an increased rate of failure with the rampant lift stopages. How are they possibly going to replace these lifts when they are not showing any willingness to spend real money on the mountain? What if someone is looking to buy property at Killington.......where will the mountain be in 10 years?

By the year 2025, what will the fate of these other lifts be?

Bear Quad (1979) - already Killington's oldest primary lift (chairs swapped to quad in 1984), will this still be in service in 10 years, at an astounding 45 years old? Will they drop $3m for a new fixed grip replacement?

Snowshed Doubles - Rebuilt in 1987, but the towers date from 1961. Will the towers make it past 60 years old, or will they be replaced by a new 6-pack lift on snowshed?

North Ridge Triple (1972) - Already appearing on lists of oldest chairlifts in operation, this lift will be 53 years old in 2025. It would have been replaced some time in the last 10 years by any other resort operator.

Snowdon Triple (1973) - Ditto.

Skyeship Gondola (1994) - Hard to imagine, but in 2025, the Skyeship will be 31 years old. That will make it one of the oldest operating Gondola's in the country. I'd be willing to bet Stowe replaces it's Gondola in the next 5 years, while Killington does not replace the Skyeship by 2025.

And lets not even get started with the Lodges. Killington is in serious trouble. If they don't get their act together and start spending some money, they will eventually run out of turd to polish.

[skifaster]

[

Skyeship Gondola (1994) - Hard to imagine, but in 2015, the Skyeship will be 31 years old. That will make it one of the oldest operating Gondola's in the country. I'd be willing to bet Stowe replaces it's Gondola in the next 5 years, while Killington does not replace the Skyeship by 2025.

More like 21 years.

[Mister Moose]

Skyeship Gondola (1994) - Hard to imagine, but in 2015, the Skyeship will be 31 years old. That will make it one of the oldest operating Gondola's in the country. I'd be willing to bet Stowe replaces it's Gondola in the next 5 years, while Killington does not replace the Skyeship by 2025.

You made a 10 year error. Karma is a bitch.

[Highway Star]

Skyeship Gondola (1994) - Hard to imagine, but in 2015, the Skyeship will be 31 years old. That will make it one of the oldest operating Gondola's in the country. I'd be willing to bet Stowe replaces it's Gondola in the next 5 years, while Killington does not replace the Skyeship by 2025.

You made a 10 year error. Karma is a bitch.

Just seeing if you're paying attention toolboy.

[skibikeclimbguy]

It's all about the skiing. Lifts matter, fancy lodges don't.

[rogman]

If you find yourself in a dick measuring contest, you've already lost. It's worse when nobody even cares.

[madhatter]

All this talk about POWDR's Killington "capital improvements" (aka basic maintenance) lead me to ask the question:

The way Killington is going, where will they be in 10 years?

I first skied Killington in 1988, but started skiing there regularly in 2004. Ten years ago, in 2005, there was plenty of talk about neglect, old lifts and old lodges. Now ten years on, upkeep of the infrastructure has improved, but they rate of replacement is sorely lacking.

Since 2005, they have installed one new lift (reusing old towers), replaced a lodge and a section of a lodge. They have removed two lifts without replacing them. That is a net loss.

In the past 15 years (2000-2015), Killington has installed one lift (Skye Peak Quad).

In the 15 years prior (1985-2000), Killington installed 2 gondolas, 4 detachable quads, 3 fixed grip quads, and 2 double chairs. In most cases, these lifts replaced existing lifts that were 20-25 years old and lacked capacity.

Does anybody else see a problem with Killington's current rate of re-investment?

Snowshed and Superstar Quads were built in 1987. They are 28 years old. They are two of the oldest HSQ in the country. Pico's two HSQ are from '87 and '88. Are there any plans to replace these aging primary lifts, like Killington's competitors have done? If these lifts are not replaced in the next ten years, they will be older than any of the oldest HSQ's operating today.

Here's an example of an old HSQ, that was removed from Breck and sold after 20 years in service:



Love the comment:

I did 5 years as a liftie when I was younger been skiing for 20 years and this sketchiest chairlift i've ever ridden. Makes so many noises I've never heard on any other lift makes me wonder if i'm going to reach the top everytime.

The only other detach quad in VT that is as old is Mount Snow's summit quad. Killington has FOUR of these lifts.

Stowe recently replaced it's 1986 ForeRunner quad, which was very well maintained. But it was 27 years old, so they replaced it. BAM. Looks nice, doesn't it...?

http://www.newenglandskihistory.com/lif ... php?id=826" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

In the next ten years, Killington will have multiple lifts that will be getting dangerously old. We are already seeing an increased rate of failure with the rampant lift stopages. How are they possibly going to replace these lifts when they are not showing any willingness to spend real money on the mountain? What if someone is looking to buy property at Killington.......where will the mountain be in 10 years?

By the year 2025, what will the fate of these other lifts be?

Bear Quad (1979) - already Killington's oldest primary lift (chairs swapped to quad in 1984), will this still be in service in 10 years, at an astounding 45 years old? Will they drop $3m for a new fixed grip replacement?

Snowshed Doubles - Rebuilt in 1987, but the towers date from 1961. Will the towers make it past 60 years old, or will they be replaced by a new 6-pack lift on snowshed?

North Ridge Triple (1972) - Already appearing on lists of oldest chairlifts in operation, this lift will be 53 years old in 2025. It would have been replaced some time in the last 10 years by any other resort operator.

Snowdon Triple (1973) - Ditto.

Skyeship Gondola (1994) - Hard to imagine, but in 2025, the Skyeship will be 31 years old. That will make it one of the oldest operating Gondola's in the country. I'd be willing to bet Stowe replaces it's Gondola in the next 5 years, while Killington does not replace the Skyeship by 2025.

And lets not even get started with the Lodges. Killington is in serious trouble. If they don't get their act together and start spending some money, they will eventually run out of turd to polish.

as long yer around there's never gonna be a turd shortage...

[Highway Star]

[steamboat1]

I'd be willing to bet Stowe replaces it's Gondola in the next 5 years

I'd take that bet seeing Stowe completely rebuilt the gondola last year (new drive, bull wheel, haul rope & rebuilt cabins which were sent out to the manufacturer).

[Highway Star]

I'd be willing to bet Stowe replaces it's Gondola in the next 5 years

I'd take that bet seeing Stowe completely rebuilt the gondola last year (new drive, bull wheel, haul rope & rebuilt cabins which were sent out to the manufacturer).

Clearly a full rebuild means they will not replace it soon.

[Highway Star]

The problem is the metric Mr. Moose uses is as flawed as is his math. Average age isn't particularly relevant. Assuming you want to replace all your lifts at some fixed age (say 40 years), then your average lift age should be 20 years, assuming you're replacing them at a steady rate. The fact that the average age is about 25 years, suggests a 50 year cycle. However, as I said, that's not really a relevant metric. Key lifts really shouldn't be allowed to operate until reaching their end of service lifespan, since the maintenance costs go up, the availability of parts goes down, and customer perception in the quality of your resort erodes. For Killington, the problem is exacerbated in that there are a lot of key lifts; i.e. there are a lot of lifts that shouldn't come anywhere near their end of service life, because of the catastrophic and cascading effect on overall operation of the resort if they fail for a sustained period. HS is full of sh*t when he says that there is an "impending infrastructure collapse". There isn't. However, Mr. Moose's contention that everything is rosey is also wrong: if the current rate of lift replacement is sustained, the resort will wither on the vine.

Given Killington's current rate of lift replacement, some of their lifts are going to be 100+ years old by the time they get around to replacing them. I wonder if the Snowdon Poma will make it to 2058? That's only 43 more years. Assuming an average age of 27 years and 20 total lifts (including Pico), they have to replace a lift almost every other year to maintain that average age.

Killington is not doing that. By barely making any replacements in the last 15+ years, they have created a large bubble in the age of their lifts. The first sign was the removal without replacement of the Devil's Fiddle lift, then the South Ridge lift.

Now, everything is just continuing to age along with no end in sight. Will 2020 come and go, without any new lifts? Maybe we'll get one new lift by 2025? It certainly seems possible at this point.

What if the Village never gets funded? Does that mean that there is very little reinvestment in Killington otherwise for the next 10 years?

Everybody thinks Killington is a major resort and "too big to fail". Well, they've already gone through a period of losing 30%-50% of their skier visits from their peak in the 90's. What's to say that after a further gradual decline, they can't afford the $50M infrastructure upgrade needed all at once in 2030 after another 15 years of no real improvements? BAM.....out of business.

[yiddle on da fiddle]

The problem is the metric Mr. Moose uses is as flawed as is his math. Average age isn't particularly relevant. Assuming you want to replace all your lifts at some fixed age (say 40 years), then your average lift age should be 20 years, assuming you're replacing them at a steady rate. The fact that the average age is about 25 years, suggests a 50 year cycle. However, as I said, that's not really a relevant metric. Key lifts really shouldn't be allowed to operate until reaching their end of service lifespan, since the maintenance costs go up, the availability of parts goes down, and customer perception in the quality of your resort erodes. For Killington, the problem is exacerbated in that there are a lot of key lifts; i.e. there are a lot of lifts that shouldn't come anywhere near their end of service life, because of the catastrophic and cascading effect on overall operation of the resort if they fail for a sustained period. HS is full of sh*t when he says that there is an "impending infrastructure collapse". There isn't. However, Mr. Moose's contention that everything is rosey is also wrong: if the current rate of lift replacement is sustained, the resort will wither on the vine.

Given Killington's current rate of lift replacement, some of their lifts are going to be 100+ years old by the time they get around to replacing them. I wonder if the Snowdon Poma will make it to 2058? That's only 43 more years. Assuming an average age of 27 years and 20 total lifts (including Pico), they have to replace a lift almost every other year to maintain that average age.
is there EVER a Cliff Notes version of your insights?.....
Killington is not doing that. By barely making any replacements in the last 15+ years, they have created a large bubble in the age of their lifts. The first sign was the removal without replacement of the Devil's Fiddle lift, then the South Ridge lift.

Now, everything is just continuing to age along with no end in sight. Will 2020 come and go, without any new lifts? Maybe we'll get one new lift by 2025? It certainly seems possible at this point.

What if the Village never gets funded? Does that mean that there is very little reinvestment in Killington otherwise for the next 10 years?

Everybody thinks Killington is a major resort and "too big to fail". Well, they've already gone through a period of losing 30%-50% of their skier visits from their peak in the 90's. What's to say that after a further gradual decline, they can't afford the $50M infrastructure upgrade needed all at once in 2030 after another 15 years of no real improvements? BAM.....out of business.

[yiddle on da fiddle]

The problem is the metric Mr. Moose uses is as flawed as is his math. Average age isn't particularly relevant. Assuming you want to replace all your lifts at some fixed age (say 40 years), then your average lift age should be 20 years, assuming you're replacing them at a steady rate. The fact that the average age is about 25 years, suggests a 50 year cycle. However, as I said, that's not really a relevant metric. Key lifts really shouldn't be allowed to operate until reaching their end of service lifespan, since the maintenance costs go up, the availability of parts goes down, and customer perception in the quality of your resort erodes. For Killington, the problem is exacerbated in that there are a lot of key lifts; i.e. there are a lot of lifts that shouldn't come anywhere near their end of service life, because of the catastrophic and cascading effect on overall operation of the resort if they fail for a sustained period. HS is full of sh*t when he says that there is an "impending infrastructure collapse". There isn't. However, Mr. Moose's contention that everything is rosey is also wrong: if the current rate of lift replacement is sustained, the resort will wither on the vine.

Given Killington's current rate of lift replacement, some of their lifts are going to be 100+ years old by the time they get around to replacing them. I wonder if the Snowdon Poma will make it to 2058? That's only 43 more years. Assuming an average age of 27 years and 20 total lifts (including Pico), they have to replace a lift almost every other year to maintain that average age.

Killington is not doing that. By barely making any replacements in the last 15+ years, they have created a large bubble in the age of their lifts. The first sign was the removal without replacement of the Devil's Fiddle lift, then the South Ridge lift.

Now, everything is just continuing to age along with no end in sight. Will 2020 come and go, without any new lifts? Maybe we'll get one new lift by 2025? It certainly seems possible at this point.

What if the Village never gets funded? Does that mean that there is very little reinvestment in Killington otherwise for the next 10 years?

Everybody thinks Killington is a major resort and "too big to fail". Well, they've already gone through a period of losing 30%-50% of their skier visits from their peak in the 90's. What's to say that after a further gradual decline, they can't afford the $50M infrastructure upgrade needed all at once in 2030 after another 15 years of no real improvements? BAM.....out of business.

..is there ever a Cliff Notes version of your seemingly endless insights?....

[madhatter]

The problem is the metric Mr. Moose uses is as flawed as is his math. Average age isn't particularly relevant. Assuming you want to replace all your lifts at some fixed age (say 40 years), then your average lift age should be 20 years, assuming you're replacing them at a steady rate. The fact that the average age is about 25 years, suggests a 50 year cycle. However, as I said, that's not really a relevant metric. Key lifts really shouldn't be allowed to operate until reaching their end of service lifespan, since the maintenance costs go up, the availability of parts goes down, and customer perception in the quality of your resort erodes. For Killington, the problem is exacerbated in that there are a lot of key lifts; i.e. there are a lot of lifts that shouldn't come anywhere near their end of service life, because of the catastrophic and cascading effect on overall operation of the resort if they fail for a sustained period. HS is full of sh*t when he says that there is an "impending infrastructure collapse". There isn't. However, Mr. Moose's contention that everything is rosey is also wrong: if the current rate of lift replacement is sustained, the resort will wither on the vine.

Given Killington's current rate of lift replacement, some of their lifts are going to be 100+ years old by the time they get around to replacing them. I wonder if the Snowdon Poma will make it to 2058? That's only 43 more years. Assuming an average age of 27 years and 20 total lifts (including Pico), they have to replace a lift almost every other year to maintain that average age.

Killington is not doing that. By barely making any replacements in the last 15+ years, they have created a large bubble in the age of their lifts. The first sign was the removal without replacement of the Devil's Fiddle lift, then the South Ridge lift.

Now, everything is just continuing to age along with no end in sight. Will 2020 come and go, without any new lifts? Maybe we'll get one new lift by 2025? It certainly seems possible at this point.

What if the Village never gets funded? Does that mean that there is very little reinvestment in Killington otherwise for the next 10 years?

Everybody thinks Killington is a major resort and "too big to fail". Well, they've already gone through a period of losing 30%-50% of their skier visits from their peak in the 90's. What's to say that after a further gradual decline, they can't afford the $50M infrastructure upgrade needed all at once in 2030 after another 15 years of no real improvements? BAM.....out of business.

..is there ever a Cliff Notes version of your seemingly endless insights?....

there is:



wait for it...






































































wait for it.....



















































highwaystar is an idiot...

[Highway Star]

Here's what Vail does with it's old HSQ's.........1989? Yank it out and replace it.

http://liftblog.com/2015/08/24/checking ... ew-lift-2/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Oldest lifts at Vail are from 1985. That's 3 years older than Killington's average lift age. Oops.