Mike Solimano VBM Cover Story

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Mister Moose
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Re: Mike Solimano VBM Cover Story

Post by Mister Moose »

freeski wrote:
Mister Moose wrote:
freeski wrote:The price of gas in Western Maine is as low as $2.25.

Irving out of Canada is driving the market.
Because Irving has a refinery in St John New Brunswick. Lower cost producer.
I thought it had to do with the St. Lawrence Seaway, butt they have pipelines. Refinery makes since. Plus LePage.
Atlantic Canada has a thriving offshore oil and natural gas industry, with five producing projects, one development project and ongoing exploration activity in the area.

Atlantic Canada produces more than 180,000 barrels of oil per day and 150 million cubic feet of natural gas per day, representing five per cent of Canada’s total crude oil production and 1.0 per cent of Canada’s overall natural gas production.* To date, development of oil and natural gas production in Atlantic Canada has mainly occurred offshore Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia.
http://atlanticcanadaoffshore.ca/the-at ... -offshore/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

That oil probably has the shortest commute in the entire northeast, except maybe PA wells that are refined and sold in NJ.
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Re: Mike Solimano VBM Cover Story

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But we digress. Meanwhile, back at the VBM article, I thought the most interesting point was that both Vail and Aspen were interested in buying Killington but Powdr wasn't interested in selling.
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Re: Mike Solimano VBM Cover Story

Post by hillbangin »

Bubba wrote:But we digress. Meanwhile, back at the VBM article, I thought the most interesting point was that both Vail and Aspen were interested in buying Killington but Powdr wasn't interested in selling.

Big difference between sniffing and making an offer Powdr couldn't refuse.

They obviously were not that interested.
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Re: Mike Solimano VBM Cover Story

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Powdr sell to Vail after the Park City debacle? Very skeptical of that happening.
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Re: Mike Solimano VBM Cover Story

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Mister Moose wrote:Powdr sell to Vail after the Park City debacle? Very skeptical of that happening.
That was kind of my reaction. Less surprising about Aspen. In any event, the unwillingness to sell suggests that Powdr is satisfied with their investment in Killington, the returns, and is positive about the future here.
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Re: Mike Solimano VBM Cover Story

Post by da Pimp »

Sure they are happy - plenty of income, no new hardware. Those crappy Snowdon lifts should have been long gone. Spending very little makes any investment look better. Copper Mtn. keeps on growing and improving. Killington gets snowmaking pipes, summer activities, and they take away South Ridge chair, Devils Fiddle Chair, and count on someone else's money to help fix up the Snowdon Quad.

Besides, POWDR smells a village finally coming to pass, and after their 30% investment they stand to pocket a lot of dough in profits from the build-outs then a ton of dough every year when they collect those huge fees for rentals. Every year they will collect their unit rental fees plus more high margin village customers renting equipment & getting lessons, all for the investment of an 800 number. Oh, they have that figured out already.

That's what Vail & Aspen wanted - the future state of Killington, not the past.
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Re: Mike Solimano VBM Cover Story

Post by rogman »

da Pimp wrote:Sure they are happy - plenty of income, no new hardware. Those crappy Snowdon lifts should have been long gone. Spending very little makes any investment look better. Copper Mtn. keeps on growing and improving. Killington gets snowmaking pipes, summer activities, and they take away South Ridge chair, Devils Fiddle Chair, and count on someone else's money to help fix up the Snowdon Quad.

Besides, POWDR smells a village finally coming to pass, and after their 30% investment they stand to pocket a lot of dough in profits from the build-outs then a ton of dough every year when they collect those huge fees for rentals. Every year they will collect their unit rental fees plus more high margin village customers renting equipment & getting lessons, all for the investment of an 800 number. Oh, they have that figured out already.

That's what Vail & Aspen wanted - the future state of Killington, not the past.
The condos going in at the base of Bear will pay for a new South Ridge Lift, and a renovated Bear Lodge. Obviously these will be high end homes, and although SP Land isn't the developer, they will allow it to assess the demand for high end homes. The trade is a win-win: the developers get a renovated lodge near the homes they are trying to sell, as well as another way out of Bear; Killington gets improvements swapping land it wasn't going to do anything with anyway.

A few years back, Steve Selbo pegged the price of real estate in the village at $500/foot. That's about twice the cost of any other on mountain property. No idea what they'll be asking at Bear, but I suspect it will saturate the market for a bit. Killington doesn't have the panache it once did, partly due to cheap flights to Denver and points west, and partly because of the resort has at best been treading water under POWDR, after years of neglect by ASC. POWDR's steady state investment of 5 or 6 million a year isn't going to sell real estate, that will require a massive investment in the entire mountain, not just the Interconnect. I doubt that's a news flash to anyone.
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Re: Mike Solimano VBM Cover Story

Post by icedtea »

rogman wrote:
da Pimp wrote:Sure they are happy - plenty of income, no new hardware. Those crappy Snowdon lifts should have been long gone. Spending very little makes any investment look better. Copper Mtn. keeps on growing and improving. Killington gets snowmaking pipes, summer activities, and they take away South Ridge chair, Devils Fiddle Chair, and count on someone else's money to help fix up the Snowdon Quad.

Besides, POWDR smells a village finally coming to pass, and after their 30% investment they stand to pocket a lot of dough in profits from the build-outs then a ton of dough every year when they collect those huge fees for rentals. Every year they will collect their unit rental fees plus more high margin village customers renting equipment & getting lessons, all for the investment of an 800 number. Oh, they have that figured out already.

That's what Vail & Aspen wanted - the future state of Killington, not the past.
The condos going in at the base of Bear will pay for a new South Ridge Lift, and a renovated Bear Lodge. Obviously these will be high end homes, and although SP Land isn't the developer, they will allow it to assess the demand for high end homes. The trade is a win-win: the developers get a renovated lodge near the homes they are trying to sell, as well as another way out of Bear; Killington gets improvements swapping land it wasn't going to do anything with anyway.

A few years back, Steve Selbo pegged the price of real estate in the village at $500/foot. That's about twice the cost of any other on mountain property. No idea what they'll be asking at Bear, but I suspect it will saturate the market for a bit. Killington doesn't have the panache it once did, partly due to cheap flights to Denver and points west, and partly because of the resort has at best been treading water under POWDR, after years of neglect by ASC. POWDR's steady state investment of 5 or 6 million a year isn't going to sell real estate, that will require a massive investment in the entire mountain, not just the Interconnect. I doubt that's a news flash to anyone.
How will all you this effect existing RE?
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Re: Mike Solimano VBM Cover Story

Post by hillbangin »

icedtea wrote:
rogman wrote:
da Pimp wrote:Sure they are happy - plenty of income, no new hardware. Those crappy Snowdon lifts should have been long gone. Spending very little makes any investment look better. Copper Mtn. keeps on growing and improving. Killington gets snowmaking pipes, summer activities, and they take away South Ridge chair, Devils Fiddle Chair, and count on someone else's money to help fix up the Snowdon Quad.

Besides, POWDR smells a village finally coming to pass, and after their 30% investment they stand to pocket a lot of dough in profits from the build-outs then a ton of dough every year when they collect those huge fees for rentals. Every year they will collect their unit rental fees plus more high margin village customers renting equipment & getting lessons, all for the investment of an 800 number. Oh, they have that figured out already.

That's what Vail & Aspen wanted - the future state of Killington, not the past.
The condos going in at the base of Bear will pay for a new South Ridge Lift, and a renovated Bear Lodge. Obviously these will be high end homes, and although SP Land isn't the developer, they will allow it to assess the demand for high end homes. The trade is a win-win: the developers get a renovated lodge near the homes they are trying to sell, as well as another way out of Bear; Killington gets improvements swapping land it wasn't going to do anything with anyway.

A few years back, Steve Selbo pegged the price of real estate in the village at $500/foot. That's about twice the cost of any other on mountain property. No idea what they'll be asking at Bear, but I suspect it will saturate the market for a bit. Killington doesn't have the panache it once did, partly due to cheap flights to Denver and points west, and partly because of the resort has at best been treading water under POWDR, after years of neglect by ASC. POWDR's steady state investment of 5 or 6 million a year isn't going to sell real estate, that will require a massive investment in the entire mountain, not just the Interconnect. I doubt that's a news flash to anyone.
How will all you this effect existing RE?
It may help a little in the sense that if more high end homes sell - it does attract more people - and it allows upgrades of existing properties to keep up.

In VT - these are LONG cycles - not the 10 year up and down cycles we see near cities.

Turning Killington into a three season town ( Stowe , Manchester ) will do way more for property values than new lifts etc.

Would be nice to have both.
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Re: Mike Solimano VBM Cover Story

Post by da Pimp »

I disagree a bit. Improving the mountain ops with sorely needed chair upgrades, decent lodges, parking lots, keeping a log season, blowing more snow will combine to add in the missing 150,000 to 200,000 daily visits that they used to enjoy in the past. I think the biggest negative in their future growth is embarrassing lifts, other lifts that are unreliable, and crappy lodges. When those things improve and the winters become hugely popular it will drive growth in the rest of the seasons, creating higher real estate demands. POWDR has already started the growth trend in summer activities. Holding them back is the wait & see attitude about the village progression into reality. I think this is the number one reason why Snowdon has suffered for so long.

The only other negative lurking around the corner is the loss of Snowshed and Rams Head lodges during a long village buildout project, with an even worse negative being the loss of so many parking spaces. The negative public hype created by pain in the ass access will hurt a lot more than stopping & going on a slow chair. Which I used to think was the worst of all. When the village starts, watch out.
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Re: Mike Solimano VBM Cover Story

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Skier visits in the State of VT are flat. VT real estate taxes are oppressive. Killington has lost market share that is tough to win back. Millenials aren't skiing as much. Current real estate sales are slow and have been slow for a very long time.

On the plus side, the Bear condos will be the best location to date.

I'm guessing on the upside, it will be 2 years to sell the condos, and then 2 years to sell the duplexes.


That takes you to 2022. Village sometime after that. Will the current plan endure?

Meanwhile, The Vistas at Sunrise still aren't sold.
http://www.vistasatsunrise.com/home.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Big Rock Rd building lots aren't sold out, ski in to Home Stretch. Asking $340-400k for the land, price is down from last year.

The Heights can't sell the second building for ~$200 a foot.

This is not an environment you go pedal to the metal with the Village.
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Re: Mike Solimano VBM Cover Story

Post by Big Bob »

Do you really want to ski with another 150-200K people on the slopes? Saturday is already stupid busy. Lift replacements may help spread people out, but that remains to be seen. I don't! I was thinking of purchasing a place near Killington for retirement, but now I am hoping that The Balsam's pans out. No income or sales tax in NH and with all the new real estate in the area and few school age children property taxes should be low. VT has a hard time controlling education and social spending. And it takes forever to sell real estate, homes sit on the market for years it seams. In my town in NH some properties are selling in a day for more than the asking price due to a shortage and a strong economy.
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Re: Mike Solimano VBM Cover Story

Post by hillbangin »

Mister Moose wrote:Skier visits in the State of VT are flat. VT real estate taxes are oppressive. Killington has lost market share that is tough to win back. Millenials aren't skiing as much. Current real estate sales are slow and have been slow for a very long time.

On the plus side, the Bear condos will be the best location to date.

I'm guessing on the upside, it will be 2 years to sell the condos, and then 2 years to sell the duplexes.


That takes you to 2022. Village sometime after that. Will the current plan endure?

Meanwhile, The Vistas at Sunrise still aren't sold.
http://www.vistasatsunrise.com/home.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Big Rock Rd building lots aren't sold out, ski in to Home Stretch. Asking $340-400k for the land, price is down from last year.

The Heights can't sell the second building for ~$200 a foot.

This is not an environment you go pedal to the metal with the Village.
On a positive note - houses between 350K and 600K close to the access road are going pretty quickly if priced properly.

Condos are flat regardless of cost.

The high end is pretty quiet but moving better than 5 years ago - all that money is going to the beach and tax free FL/TN.

I keep hoping for the Woodward because it would draw a ton of summer traffic.
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Re: Mike Solimano VBM Cover Story

Post by rogman »

Vistas are selling, albeit slowly. I'd guess about 1 a year. They are spectacular, but their location on Sunrise isn't the best with respect to the ski trails. Regardless, at 1.4 million for 4000 sq feet ($350/foot) that's pricey real estate in today's market. I'm skeptical about MM suggestion the Bear condo's will sell out in 4 years. I'd put the build out at a closer to 6-8 years. Obviously, it depends on the price point. I'm hoping the developer will pu$h the mountain to get Bear open earlier to spur sales, say the beginning of December rather than late.
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Re: Mike Solimano VBM Cover Story

Post by da Pimp »

At face value I thought the Bear project would sell out in a year or less, but now you all give me second thoughts. I guess the only ace in the hole to invest over there is the slopeside attraction. Although only for about 16-17 weeks out of 52. If it sells as slow as you are all projecting, that means SP Land will drag their feet on dropping big bucks into the village for a while longer. The longer the delay the better for the average K customer. I guess SP will be banking on their slopeside village location to drive up activity & pricing despite market indications otherwise. As they say, location-location-location.

When I saw how fast the Stowe projects were built and sold for big numbers, I thought the market was there for the taking in southern Vt. I guess Stowe has that name & reputation that Killington still yearns for. Even without the tons of trails, long season, way more snowmaking and more lifts (but poorer quality) that Killington offers, Stowe still garnered a million per unit for many units and sold them quickly. If that was driven mostly by slopeside location, then SP and POWDR will do well enough.
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