Vail Resorts

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snoloco
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Re: Vail Resorts

Post by snoloco »

I agree Vail will eventually go up in smoke. You can't keep buying new resorts every year without running up huge debts. This is just like ASC did but without the real estate.

Aspen is now trying to follow the Vail model by buying up Intrawest and we'll see if they introduce their own epic pass style deal.
rogman
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Re: Vail Resorts

Post by rogman »

derickson178 wrote:Vail is a Ponzi scheme. The only way they have been able to get the stock price up is by purchasing more resorts and taking on debt. It's textbook. The guy is a finance guy and he knows the only way he can get rich is to this type of model. This is a one trick pony. They don't own any of the real estate that would help them balance things out. So, once there are no more resorts to buy, the party will be over. There revenues will go flat and then drop, and the stock price will follow. The only thing that won't go down will be the debt and that will be what kills them. From an investors standpoint, I would sell the stock or short it. From a skiers point of view and a person who has skied Vail many times since the mid 80's, it's a nightmare dealing with the crowds since the EPIC pass has been out, especially on weekends. Stowe will have this same issue is my guess. Sure, they will upgrade the lifts, etc. but still only one road in and one road out. No thanks. Back when Killington had the cheap season passes of the ASC era, Killington had the same crowding issue. Aspen is doing things the right way. They are profitable, don't have a lot of debt, and provide a superior product at the high end of the market.
ASC was a penny stock for a number of years. Vail is currently at about $230.00/share. Consensus of analysts is a strong buy with a $250 target. At best that makes you a contrarian. I'm not sure why you call it a Ponzi scheme, since that involves using investor money to pay other investors. Lot of debt? Sure. Doesn't make it a Ponzi scheme. I think you're throwing around buzzwords without having any clue about what you're talking about. Prove me wrong.
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snoloco
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Re: Vail Resorts

Post by snoloco »

And the Vail acquisition will be a disaster for Stowe and everyone who skis there. They don't need any capital improvements. AIG already did them. I think they will siphon off their revenue to pay for upgrades elsewhere or buying up more mountains.

Once Vail implodes I think pass prices will go back up somehwhat while day ticket prices will come back down to earth. The only way to compete with Vail is sell cheap passes and make up for it with 100 dollar day tickets and nickel and diming for parking etc.
deadheadskier
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Re: Vail Resorts

Post by deadheadskier »

I disagree. Stowe's lift and day lodge capacity is inadequate for the business they do on the weekends.

I could see Vail replacing the Mountain Triple with at least a high speed quad if not a six pack and also expanding the Midway lodge.
icedtea
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Re: Vail Resorts

Post by icedtea »

Hmm sending profits elsewhere ....

Like Eldora???
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snoloco
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Re: Vail Resorts

Post by snoloco »

The Mountain Triple will never ever be a 6 pack. HSQ maybe since there's some good intermediate terrain that can be lapped off of it and it would take a lot of people off FourRunner (which really should've been a 6 pack to begin with).

Can't speak for the lodges on the Mansfield side because I always used the Spruce lodge the one time I skied there.

And yes, Powdr doesn't give a crap about investing in Killington except for holding the World Cup. No significant upgrades since the Skye Peak Express.
deadheadskier
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Re: Vail Resorts

Post by deadheadskier »

IIRC they kept the Fourunner a quad to maintain the same capacity as to not overload the trails off the summit.

There's a lot of wide, lower angle trails off the Mountain triple, so that area can absorb a lot more traffic. Probably a HSQ is the pick, but Vail has gone six pack crazy at other resorts, so it wouldn't surprise me to see that option.

The Mansfield Lodge can't be touched because it's listed as a National Historic building. The Midway lodge is quite small and gets absolutely jammed. So, I could see either an expansion of Midway or maybe a third lodge somewhere between the Quad and Gondola.
snoloco
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Re: Vail Resorts

Post by snoloco »

There is absolutely massive trail acreage off FourRunner. They did upgrade the capacity from 1600 an hour to 2400. I was there at the end of March in 2015 and there was a line out of the ropes while you could ski right onto any other lift on the mountain. I don't see how a full maze and 15 minute line adds to the experience at all. Really it should've been a 6-pack with at least 3000 an hour. The only reason it wasn't is the same reason SPE at Killington is a quad instead of a 6. They underestimated how much additional capacity was needed. IMO, the FourRunner section of Stowe is something you ski right at open before it's busy and then forget about it. The Front Four is great, but ends in a long flat runout. I really didn't find it to be as good as it's hyped up to be. Killington and Whiteface have way better sustained vertical just to name a couple. I absolutely loved the Upper Spruce pod though.



Vail has been installing many 6-packs to replace older first generation detachables that are all in very high traffic areas. When they installed HSQ's they all replaced doubles or triples. Zero chance of them having a 6-pack to mid mountain and a quad to the summit. It just doesn't work that way.
deadheadskier
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Re: Vail Resorts

Post by deadheadskier »

Now I know where the "loco" in snoloco comes from. You might be the first person ever to suggest Killington has better sustained vertical than Stowe. Killington is great at many things; long, sustained vertical would not be one of them. Stowe has some run out to it, but most of the terrain above those runouts offer several hundred more vertical than the typical trails at Killington.

Like I said, maybe they go with a six on the Mountain Triple. Likely a quad, but you never know unless you're the one mailing in the PO. They sure as sh*t aren't going to rip out a practically brand new $7M HSQ anytime soon.
rogman
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Re: Vail Resorts

Post by rogman »

Lift Blog's speculation for 2018 lift upgrades across Vail resorts, including Stowe. They cite Lookout, Mountain, and Toll House lifts as possibilities:
https://liftblog.com/2017/08/10/will-va ... g-in-2018/
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Guy in Shorts
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Re: Vail Resorts

Post by Guy in Shorts »

Ripped five quick runs off the Forerunner Quad waiting for my cousin to show racking up 10,000 quick vertical. Stowe has Killington beat in efficient quality vertical available hands down. Our inbounds ski from K1 Gondola terrain beats their Gondola inbounds but Stowe wins again as having the better hike to skiing. Stowe fans are going to wish they multiple lane access road like Killington. Stowe is just plain awesome but I am hanging my hat right here at Killington.
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icedtea
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Re: Vail Resorts

Post by icedtea »

Stowe definitely has better hike to terrain. Haven’t been up there in years but last time we got in some nice well earned free turns in a ton of powder. I’m thinking like 2010/11??

There is that road that you can hike that gets you pretty high. Wish I️ remember the details better but was following Barnibus so didn’t pay too much attention.

BTW snow permitting... Barnibus coming back around Xmas, we are going to do the backside.
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snoloco
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Re: Vail Resorts

Post by snoloco »

Yeah I saw that. LiftBlog is great for many things, but I don't think their speculation really holds much water.

The only time they bought new lifts in the first year they controlled a mountain was Park City and that was just to connect it to The Canyons. I expect them to not invest in Stowe and just use it as a cash cow to sell epic passes. The only thing that will change is they will begin charging 30 to 40 dollars to park in the Mansfield lot and force everyone else to park way down the road and take a bus to the lodge. They will be able to cram even more people on the mountain that way.
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Mister Moose
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Re: Vail Resorts

Post by Mister Moose »

75 miles to Stowe and ski with Highway Star, or 5 miles to KBL and ski with everyone else.
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snoloco
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Re: Vail Resorts

Post by snoloco »

Noticed there's a traverse at Stowe that cuts across every single trail on Mansfield and is the only way back to FourRunner from all but one of the intermediate trails off the top. Expect to see speed enforcers at every intersection preventing the experts from skiing fast with the threat of pulled tickets. So much for that section being enjoyable to ski. And the top of it does have good sustained vert that was worth the long runout.
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