Middle East impact on the ski industry

[Geoff]

So...

What happens if Israel ends up turning Iran into a parking lot? I see oil prices shooting up to $150 to $200/barrel. Gasoline hits $7.00/gallon at the pump. Home heating oil & diesel fuel hits $6.00/gallon. Electricity costs double.

I think an event like this would trash Killington. They'd see yet another 20% fall-off in skier visits. They'd only be able to make half as much snow since they couldn't afford the energy costs. The vacation home market would go into the shitter. Real estate prices would go back to 1990 levels. The State of Vermont would react by setting the Act 68 commercial & vacation home property tax rate at 4% to prop up spending. That would just further the death spiral.

[Talisman]

I'm optimistic and see the upside of your scenario. With fewer skier visits more untracked snow, less grooming and less faux sneax makes for better conditions, fewer toursits may make for less additude at the resorts and fewer people crowding the Long Trail Brew Pub and I-91. Once you are past the high prices at the pump there is an upside. Hey, I look back at the winter of '71-'72 with fodness.

[St. Jerry]

I'm optimistic and see the upside of your scenario. With fewer skier visits more untracked snow, less grooming and less faux sneax makes for better conditions, fewer toursits may make for less additude at the resorts and fewer people crowding the Long Trail Brew Pub and I-91. Once you are past the high prices at the pump there is an upside. Hey, I look back at the winter of '71-'72 with fodness.

Keep your fingers crossed. We can only hope.

[Dirty Old Ski Bastard]

I'm optimistic and see the upside of your scenario. With fewer skier visits more untracked snow, less grooming and less faux sneax makes for better conditions, fewer toursits may make for less additude at the resorts and fewer people crowding the Long Trail Brew Pub and I-91. Once you are past the high prices at the pump there is an upside. Hey, I look back at the winter of '71-'72 with fodness.

Keep your fingers crossed. We can only hope.

Theory sounds all well and good, but if it dont snow, it dont matter.

[Dr. NO]

So...

What happens if Israel ends up turning Iran into a parking lot? I see oil prices shooting up to $150 to $200/barrel. Gasoline hits $7.00/gallon at the pump. Home heating oil & diesel fuel hits $6.00/gallon. Electricity costs double.

I think an event like this would trash Killington. They'd see yet another 20% fall-off in skier visits. They'd only be able to make half as much snow since they couldn't afford the energy costs. The vacation home market would go into the shitter. Real estate prices would go back to 1990 levels. The State of Vermont would react by setting the Act 68 commercial & vacation home property tax rate at 4% to prop up spending. That would just further the death spiral.

AS a loss of Iranian Oil on the World Market might drive prices up, That same oil had to be refined and returned to Iran for use, since they have NO REFINERIES of their own. So, Loss of Crude to gain of usable supply could balance the trade and costs.

[Dr. NO]

I'm optimistic and see the upside of your scenario. With fewer skier visits more untracked snow, less grooming and less faux sneax makes for better conditions, fewer toursits may make for less additude at the resorts and fewer people crowding the Long Trail Brew Pub and I-91. Once you are past the high prices at the pump there is an upside. Hey, I look back at the winter of '71-'72 with fodness.

While I like the thought of fewer people on the hill and more freshies and real snow, it is unrealistic to even think the resorts could survive with continued loss of skier visits and revenue. With loss of skiers, they would have to (oh my) reduce grooming, but also use fewer chairs for access to the mountain.

[St. Jerry]

I'm optimistic and see the upside of your scenario. With fewer skier visits more untracked snow, less grooming and less faux sneax makes for better conditions, fewer toursits may make for less additude at the resorts and fewer people crowding the Long Trail Brew Pub and I-91. Once you are past the high prices at the pump there is an upside. Hey, I look back at the winter of '71-'72 with fodness.

While I like the thought of fewer people on the hill and more freshies and real snow, it is unrealistic to even think the resorts could survive with continued loss of skier visits and revenue. With loss of skiers, they would have to (oh my) reduce grooming, but also use fewer chairs for access to the mountain.

The Horror, the horror!