A political science professor who claims his statistical model has correctly predicted the results of every election in the last 104 years has forecast that the odds of Donald Trump becoming America’s next president currently range from 97 percent to 99 percent.
The professor is Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University, reports The Statesman, the campus newspaper at the public bastion on New York’s Long Island.
Specifically, Norpoth predicts that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of beating Bernie Sanders.
The predictions assume Trump will actually become the 2016 presidential nominee of the Republican Party. (RELATED: Trump Has Never Voted In A Republican Primary)
Last edited by Highway Star on Mar 6th, '16, 19:25, edited 1 time in total.
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Troughsmasher wrote:The real story here is how this guy has been predicting elections for the past 104 years!
This guy said " ...his statistical model has correctly predicted the results of every election in the last 104 years " He didn't say in advance. He said his statistical model predicts the winner. This is also known as curve fitting.
Just because you can fashion a model that describes the past doesn't mean you have solved predicting the future.
Troughsmasher wrote:The real story here is how this guy has been predicting elections for the past 104 years!
This guy said " ...his statistical model has correctly predicted the results of every election in the last 104 years " He didn't say in advance. He said his statistical model predicts the winner. This is also known as curve fitting.
Just because you can fashion a model that describes the past doesn't mean you have solved predicting the future.
Especially this election cycle where the voters are mad as hell and not taking it anymore.
Troughsmasher wrote:The real story here is how this guy has been predicting elections for the past 104 years!
This guy said " ...his statistical model has correctly predicted the results of every election in the last 104 years " He didn't say in advance. He said his statistical model predicts the winner. This is also known as curve fitting.
Just because you can fashion a model that describes the past doesn't mean you have solved predicting the future.
Well, at least he's one up on climate science.
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Troughsmasher wrote:The real story here is how this guy has been predicting elections for the past 104 years!
This guy said " ...his statistical model has correctly predicted the results of every election in the last 104 years " He didn't say in advance. He said his statistical model predicts the winner. This is also known as curve fitting.
Just because you can fashion a model that describes the past doesn't mean you have solved predicting the future.
Well, at least he's one up on climate science.
Of course, if either event happen as predicted, we’re all f*cked.
Troughsmasher wrote:The real story here is how this guy has been predicting elections for the past 104 years!
This guy said " ...his statistical model has correctly predicted the results of every election in the last 104 years " He didn't say in advance. He said his statistical model predicts the winner. This is also known as curve fitting.
Just because you can fashion a model that describes the past doesn't mean you have solved predicting the future.
