Vail Resorts Q2 2020 earnings - Skier visits down

[GlacierBoy]

Back to a factual and more interesting discussion. Vail Resorts (MTN) released their earnings after the market close yesterday. No surprise, they withdrew their earnings guidance for the year, and delayed decision on a dividend increase until June

Some key takeaways:
- For ski season ending March 1, 2020 (vs season to March 3 2019), Total skier visits were down 5.2% compared to the prior year season-to-date period
- Total lift revenue including an allocated portion of season pass revenue for each applicable period was up 0.8% compared to the prior year season-to-date period.
- Our ski school revenue increased 2.8%, dining revenue decreased 1.4%, and resort retail and rental revenue decreased 0.6%, all compared to the prior year season-to-date period.
- Whistler Blackcomb and Stevens Pass, our resorts in the Pacific Northwest, experienced the lowest snowfall in over 30 years through December 31, 2019, resulting in very poor results through the early season and critical holiday period. Visitation at those resorts continued to be challenging and below our expectations in January, with Whistler Blackcomb experiencing a weaker than expected recovery in North American and international destination visitation. In total, visitation across our Pacific Northwest resorts was down 14% compared to the prior year for the second quarter.
- After a challenging start in the early season, destination guest visitation at our Western U.S. resorts improved significantly during the holiday period and was in line with our expectations. The improvement continued through January though Colorado was modestly below our expectations for the post-holiday period, partially offset by strong performance at our Park City Resort.
- Finally, our Northeast resorts are off to a great start to the season, supported by the continued benefit from our expanded Northeast network, which has been partially offset by challenging weather variability across the Midwest resorts.
- In the week ended March 8, 2020, we saw a marked negative change in performance from the prior week. With destination skier visits modestly below expectations and we expect this trend to continue and potentially worsen in upcoming weeks.
- Moving to our calendar year 2020 capital plan. We remain committed to reinvesting in our resorts, creating an experience of a lifetime for our guests and generating strong returns for our shareholders. The Company expects to invest approximately $155 million to $160 million, excluding one-time items associated with integrations, the one-time Triple Peaks and Stevens Pass transformation plan, one-time Peak Resorts capital improvements, real estate related capital and $4 million of reimbursable investments associated with insurance recoveries that we had originally expected to occur in calendar 2019.

As previously announced, the calendar year 2020 capital plan includes a rare opportunity to expand with a 250 acre lift-served terrain expansion in the signature McCoy Park area of Beaver Creek, further differentiating the resort’s high-end, family focused experience. We also plan to add a new four-person high speed lift at Breckenridge to serve the popular Peak 7, a replacement of the Peru lift at Keystone, with a six-person high speed chairlift, subject to governmental approvals, and a significant 250-seat increase in the seating capacity at the Rendezvous Lodge Restaurant on Blackcomb Mountain.

- We are planning to complete the $3 million initial phase of a two-year, $15 million investment program across Peak Resorts. We are also planning to complete the second and final phase of a two-year, $35 million investment program for Crested Butte, Okemo and Stevens Pass and planning to spend approximately $24 million on integration activities primarily related to Peak Resorts.

Including one-time items associated with integrations, the one-time Triple Peaks and Stevens Pass transformation plan, one-time Peak Resorts capital improvements, real estate related capital and $4 million of reimbursable investments associated with insurance recoveries that we had originally expected to occur in calendar 2019, we expect our total capital plan to be approximately $210 million to $215 million.

-