Bubba wrote:shortski wrote:
I certainly hope they don't but if they do it will escalate in a heartbeat. Israel will most likely be facing a combined force of Iran & Syria and who knows who else. They can't win a conventional war if this happens and it would go nuclear IMHO.
Your military analysis is faulty, your knowledge of geography questionable, and you apparently have little sense of history. Other than that, you're doing fine.
Israel has won every conventional war it has fought, often on all sides, and has the capability to do so now. They would have air superiority by day 2 if not immediately on day 1 and Syria's armed forces would have to attack across either Lebanon (where the Israelis have already blown the bridges and other links) or the Golan Heights which Israel controls. Egypt and Jordan would stay out, unlike what they've done in the past, and Iran has no border with Israel so they're not a ground factor. Most of the Arab states are, today, reasonably moderate (by standards of that part of the world) and would remain vocal but neutral, probably running to the UN for help to broker a cease fire.
I'm aware of the history of Israel kicking the collective butts of all of the Arab nations at one time or another, doesn't seem to deter them from pulling the crap we are seeing now, does it.
I think things have changed since the last time the Arabs-Israelis danced. As you pointed out Syria on its own is pretty formidable, add to their ground forces their missile capacity, and they can cause some extensive damage. Add to the equation the possibility that Syria may have some of the biological and/or chemical weapons missing from Iraq and it's a whole new ball game.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world ... issile.htm
Also Syria and Syria agreed to allow Iran to store military equipment in Syria up to and including WMD.
Iran, Syria sign a further defense co-operation agreement
By Robin Hughes JDW Deputy Editor
London
Iran and Syria have signed a further memorandum of understanding (MoU) on defense co-operation to address what both sides described as "American and Israeli threats".
Citing diplomatic sources, Jane's reported in 2005 that Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki signed a confidential strategic accord on 14 November 2005 with his counterpart Farouq al-Shara and Syrian Prime Minister Naji al-Otari, "which includes a sensitive chapter dealing with co-operation and mutual aid during times of international sanctions, or scenarios of military confrontation with the West".
The sensitive chapter in the accord includes Syria's commitment to allow Iran to safely store weapons, sensitive equipment or even hazardous materials on Syrian soil should Iran need such help in a time of crisis, the sources said. Iranian military aid ranges from "the supply of weapons and ammunition and the training of Syrian personnel to co-operation and continuous transfer of technology and equipment in the areas of weapons of mass destruction [particularly the upgrade of Syrian missile and chemical warfare capabilities], to Iranian troops operating advanced weapon systems in Syria during a military confrontation", the sources added.
http://www.janes.com/defence/news/jdw/j ... _1_n.shtml
The link may not work, I think you have to be a register user but you can check it out see if it works.
I also understand the geographical limitation on pursuing a ground war but Iran is rumored to have access to missiles with a rang of over 4500 mile, that would put most of Israel in the target zone of these missiles. Kind of highlights why the Korean missile tests are of such importance.
Israel concerned about Iranian missile capacity PRINT FRIENDLY EMAIL STORY
AM Archive - Friday, 11 July , 2003 08:04:03
Reporter: Mark Willacy
LINDA MOTTRAM: The US believes that North Korea and Iran have been co-operating on weapons, and that's against the backdrop of concern in Israel that it is within range of Iranian missiles which are said to be based on North Korean technology.
Adding to those concerns, the United States this week detected an Iranian test launch of the Shahab-3 missile and tracked its path for 1,300 kilometres - the same as the distance between Iran's western border and Israel's largest city, Tel Aviv.
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2003/s899733.htm
I think it's a new day a dawning and I don't think anyone is ready to deal with the consequences if this action expands to include Iran and/or Syria IMHO.
