Science Rant, Not politics: Can CO2 cause "Climate Change?"

[madhatter]

back to those battery landscaper tools....oh the bliss of nearly silent weed whackers, chainsaws, etc that didn't require 2 stroke mix and emit 2 stroke smell...but as moose pointed out any that are available are weak low end models...make an electric one that does the same work at about the same weight and you got a winner for sure...pretty sure the battery weight vs available power is the issue w those going fwd...corded is a nonstarter...


and those battery issues are my "sticking point" elsewhere too...

I'd REALLY like to have grid assisted solar here wherein I have a battery or three that store energy and fed it to my house...the end game would be a battery that supplies energy to my home 24/7...that batter would get its charge from solar panels, then the grid and lastly my generator...I can do this project incrementally... I already have the generator and the grid...I could get the battery and conversion HW etc and have that first then the solar c/b added on later... but I can get decent govt subsidy if I include at least one solar panel in my initial set up, so I may as well wait til i can do it all at once... I'm totally not interested in the panels on the roof grid tie system where you get energy credits...those houses still have no power when the grid goes down......right now though the batteries are still fairly expensive but they've improved a lot since I first started looking....the tesla battery showed a lot of promise but I haven;t seen much since..at one point GMP was going to offer them...I'll be doing this eventually and when I do I'll advocate to make it mandatory for the rest of you...

[madhatter]

No, I didn't get "owned" madhatter. I haven't adopted the tech because it didn't exist in my price range when I bought my car. That doesn't mean I don't believe that the technology won't be available to people in my budget range in the future. I think it will and it will happen much quicker than you believe.

And even if I choose to stick with a gas powered car when that tech becomes available in my price range, it's going to be because I like driving manual transmission cars and that won't be available in an electric car because they don't have transmissions.

I have this feeling you think I'm championing this from some sort of "tree hugger" / green energy point of view. That is not the case. I only believe what I do about electric and self driving cars because that is what companies like Tesla, Apple and Google are predicting and investing heavily in. Traditional automakers are working on it too and all have very aggressive timelines at least on self driving technology.

https://venturebeat.com/2017/06/04/self ... utomakers/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So, that's where we are at. I believe in the vision and timelines that innovators like Musk are putting forth. You do not.

I'll revisit this in 2025 and 2037 and see if I'm right. There is no argument to be won or lost today.

you barely made it 20 minutes let alone 20 yrs...

here's what you said:

The auto industry world wide is going to be a shell of itself in a very short time due to the automation of the fleet. Prediction: Starting in the US and other 1st world nations - private vehicle ownership will essentially be a thing of the past except for the very wealthy. You want to go somewhere? You schedule with an automated service like Uber to take you where you need to go.

w/o govt mandates ( remember ideas so good they're mandatory) this is a nonstarter...

Yes, there will always be some need for fossil powered combustion engines, especially for commercial vehicles, but passenger cars? Only a fool would believe that gas powered personal vehicles aren't going to mostly go away within the next 20 years.

there will be millions left in 20 years...millions...in the US alone...

and your modified predictions here:

Hatter,

Quite simply when it comes to self driving technology and electric vehicles, I am looking at it from where the investment is going. There is a shift right now that is gaining momentum that points to electric as the primary option of the future. As battery production ramps up and the power storage improves, that will only advance faster. An electric motor has but a fraction of the moving parts that a combustion engine does and those parts don't break down at nearly the same rate. It stands to reason that this reality will make electric cheaper to mass produce.

It is you who is being emotional and refusing to look at both the trends of technology and the speed in which those advancements are happening. I have nothing left to argue with you. As always you are about as open to the differing opinions of others as a brick wall. So, I'm out.

I'll leave it with my two primary predictions you are taking on and come back to revisit them at those times and either say I told you so or I was wrong.

1. By 2025 you will park your car at Killington next to an electric self driving vehicle. Probably someone very wealthy, but it will happen.that guy will be in preferred parking and gone by noon, or more likely at stowe or stratton parked inside....but ok that's not inconceivable...

2. In 20 years, self driving technology will be the norm and the majority of new cars being produced will be either all electric or at minimum be a hybrid. The percentage of all gas cars being built will be miniscule.hybrid vs fully automated electric uber as our only option is a big stretch...

your prediction was that internal combustion engines were mostly going away in 20 years and that only the very wealthy would own private cars and the rest of us would hail an automated uber if we wanted to go somewhere...and again NO...

See you then

you just got totally OWNED...blathering on about what everyone else should do, will do, is doing, where the demand is, mandates, subsidies, elon musk, tesla, who gives a fvck about some idiot who wants to tow a snowmobile yet when it comes to putting YOUR money where your mouth is ,you the biggest advocate here by far has zero investment in the technology of any sort and drive a gas car I guess cuz of your love for that antiquated relic the manual transmission ( joking, yer talking to a gearhead here, I get yer love of the MT, performance vehicles etc believe me I do)...

so of course you revert to THIS:

Yeah that's the problem that runs through this entire thread. "Progressives" are so delusionally confident of their righteousness that they simply cannot conceive that a sane counter-narrative might exist. Those that disagree with them are merely simpletons who never read the NYT and thus cannot be enlightened.

So no matter what you say they will still believe that your objections exist because you are simply not fully enlightened. You can explicitly state your enthusiasm for technological breakthroughs and they will ignore that. To them your objections to the specific issues you raised are not what you explicitly said they are....they are merely a symptom of your lack of progressive enlightenment.

DHS is incredibly detached from reality, zero self awareness at all...

for those that haven;t heard the story before...the 'hatters live in a pretty energy efficient high tech geodesic dome with numerous "smart" features/technology... we employ many green policies that make sense to us all by themselves w/o any govt intervention or DHS seal of approval...

when I built it 10 yrs ago I looked into every conceivable method of off grid. grid tied alternative energy...NONE of it made economic sense, not solar, geothermal, outdoor woodboiler etc...

I ended up going w passive solar ( nice view too) and super high efficiency insulation ( sprayed foam)...that made plenty of economic sense...

I'm not against technology, change etc... I just don't see the huge demand and economics driving a technology that a huge advocate like DHS has zero investment in despite it having been around for quite some time and being somewhat readily available...

those w his enthusiasm may actually start buying their fantasies in the future but right now it remains uncertain...and thus the likelihood of those fantasies coming to fruition on the timescale he presents is low...

your "trend" towards electric whatever doesn't really seem to show up here in this forum...this forum provides a pretty wide cross section w skiing being the only bonding pt for many... don;t seem like many if any are immersed in this technology, but that doesn't mean that they ( I ) hate it...it means that just like you we don't see it as providing the best bang for my car buying dollars...but we're all naysayers and yer just savvy...

same sh!t w nearly every argument you make, it doesn't apply to you because of your "extenuating " circumstances ( too expensive, you like a stick etc) but its plenty good enough for everyone else who clearly has no valid extenuating circumstance ( who gives fvck about some idiot in vt who wants to tow a snowmobile) but is simply a "person", a person that is interchangeable w any other person except of course special people like you...

[deadheadskier]

Where are the electric mowers now? Why don't I see any at Home Depot? The demand must have been too small.

This got me curious, so I went to Home Depots mobile site and searched all lawn mowers. On the portal page what were they pushing? A cordless electric lawnmower.

http://www.homedepot.com/b/Outdoors-Out ... 5yc1vZc5ar" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

They currently have 47 models available of cordless electric lawnmowers.

I wonder what they offered five years ago and how many models will be available five years from now?

Also be curious to see what the price and availability of these will be in 5-10 years.

http://www.husqvarna.com/us/products/ro ... gIZKPD_BwE" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[deadheadskier]

How freaking dense are you Madhatter? (Answer: very)

For the last time, this is about market and industry forecasting. I never even said it's what I want. What I or you want as individuals does not matter. My driving preferences are already in the very small minority. Less than 3% of cars sold in the US have a manual transmission.

This whole argument is about what some very bright people in technology are predicting. I believe what they have to say, you don't.

Moving on....

[madhatter]

Where are the electric mowers now? Why don't I see any at Home Depot? The demand must have been too small.

This got me curious, so I went to Home Depots mobile site and searched all lawn mowers. On the portal page what were they pushing? A cordless electric lawnmower.

http://www.homedepot.com/b/Outdoors-Out ... 5yc1vZc5ar" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

They currently have 47 models available of cordless electric lawnmowers.

I wonder what they offered five years ago and how many models will be available five years from now?

Also be curious to see what the price and availability of these will be in 5-10 years.

http://www.husqvarna.com/us/products/ro ... gIZKPD_BwE" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'd be curious to know if they are being subsidized or is it purely market driven? i have way more use for a nearly silent electric powered mower ( even one that was fully autonomous) and even I might pay some sort of premium vs a regular mower for that...

IF and its still a big IF at this point...IF the battery capacity vs weight issue can be resolved I can see where in 20 yrs the gasoline mower and weedwhacker have mostly gone away...IF that happens your auto/electric fleet will arrive at some point after that...still thinking not in most zoners lifetime...I'm early 50's...many have a couple a two three years on me...can't see any way we go to a " you schedule an uber" anywhere but perhaps big cities for way longer than any of the aforementioned...

[Bubba]

This article is several years old but it's still relevant to any discussion of solar power and its potential in this country. Keep in mind that the article is referring to GWH, not peak demand. The ability for solar, wind and other renewable technologies to play more than a secondary or tertiary role in power generation will continue to be wholly dependent on storage and until that technology advances well beyond where it is today, we will continue to be dependent on our traditional forms of generation for base, intermediate and peak load needs.

It Takes 2.8 Acres of Land to Generate 1GWh of Solar Energy Per Year, Says NREL

https://www.energymanagertoday.com/it-t ... el-094185/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[madhatter]

How freaking dense are you Madhatter? (Answer: very)

For the last time, this is about market and industry forecasting. ya mean like a hillary landslide or the edsel? I never even said it's what I want. What I or you want as individuals does not matter. My driving preferences are already in the very small minority. Less than 3% of cars sold in the US have a manual transmission.

This whole argument is about what some very bright people in technology are predicting. I believe what they have to say, you don't. you were gonna laugh in my face when trump got slammed last November too...

Moving on....

gad yer an @sshole, is not the market made up of individuals? do any individuals on this board share your enthusiasm let alone actually embrace it with their wallets? your claims of "demand" for this seem more in line w centrally planned ideas and the last administration goals than it does with anything anyone here or anywhere else I go seems to want...I don't see anyone clamoring for electric cars or self driving cars... so barring massive govt subsidies and other interference I don't see that 20 yr timeline happening...

http://www.businessinsider.com/biggest- ... ry-2016-12" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[deadheadskier]

Hey,

I have no problem admitting I was wrong in believing the forecast on the election. If you have to bring that up to feed your ego in every argument we have, go for it. I really don't care.

If 2025 rolls around and there aren't wealthy folks with self driving electric vehicles parked at Killington, I will admit I was wrong then too.

[madhatter]

Hey,

I have no problem admitting I was wrong in believing the forecast on the election. If you have to bring that up to feed your ego in every argument we have, go for it. I really don't care.man there is a serious disconnect here, that comment is about FORECASTS not you...

If 2025 rolls around and there aren't wealthy folks with self driving electric vehicles parked at Killington, I will admit I was wrong then too.

I don;t care if you are wrong or not...that wasn't your original argument the one I disagreed with now you want to introduce differing variables at every post...that's not a discussion on the future of electric cars or the internal combustion powered personal vehicle...

here's what some other supposedly smart people think:

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-morg ... ars-2017-5" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

here's a number of times those forecasts didn't pan out:

http://www.businessinsider.com/biggest- ... ry-2016-12" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

time will tell...perhaps if you didn't start off with "only a fool would think..."

[deadheadskier]

You done?

[madhatter]

You done?

seems you've run out of ad hominem attacks and deferring to forecasts as failproof prognostication of the future, so perhaps we are done here...

if you come up any kind of original ideas though please feel free to report back on them...otherwise we've seen enough of the cherry picked data...right now EV sales are about 3% of the market...right about the same number as have manual transmissions

Less than 3% of cars sold in the US have a manual transmission.

which you state is a:

very small minority.

now your prognostications may have some shot at coming somewhat true somewhere down the line, but to say only a fool doubts them is where the bone of contention arises...plenty of reasons why they won't but you've dismissed them all as "dense stupidity etc" and cited forecasts as your reason for doing so... the fact that you are so oblivious to your emotional buy in is prevalent across any and every topic you post on...you have no idea whatsoever, nor one iota of interest in the concerns of anyone but yourself and those you assume are like minded which apparently the only people whose thoughts and concerns actually matter..., you'll simply cite whatever to prove you know better what they want than they do themselves...

which brings us right back to this:

Yeah that's the problem that runs through this entire thread. "Progressives" are so delusionally confident of their righteousness that they simply cannot conceive that a sane counter-narrative might exist. Those that disagree with them are merely simpletons who never read the NYT and thus cannot be enlightened.

So no matter what you say they will still believe that your objections exist because you are simply not fully enlightened. You can explicitly state your enthusiasm for technological breakthroughs and they will ignore that. To them your objections to the specific issues you raised are not what you explicitly said they are....they are merely a symptom of your lack of progressive enlightenment.

[deadheadskier]

Ok, how about now?

[madhatter]

Ok, how about now?

I dunno, ya said you were gone til 2025 and yet ya still keep coming back so I'm not really sure on that...I think I need a little more time to make a decision, I don't wanna rush it...can I get back to you say tomorrow morning maybe? would that be ok?

maybe you can get musky melon to send you some pics from the future during his visit?...if you could post those up here before tomorrow morning that would help a lot, thanks...

[deadheadskier]

Anything else?

[Bubba]

You kids had enough yet? Without either of you having a Delorean equipped with a flux capacitor, we're all just going to have to wait a while for the answer.