Science Rant, Not politics: Can CO2 cause "Climate Change?"

[Rime & Reason]

R&R you posted that some glaciers are melting somewhere. You showed us pictures. Therefore we are insane for not "BELIEVING" ALL the pronouncements of the global warming consensus????? Are you serious?

Have you seen a map of the likely extend of North American glaciers prior to their retreat in the current interglacial? What caused all that melting?????? Burning "fossil fuels?"

Wow, you really are not very good at understanding what you read. I bet this skill comes in handy when trying to ignore the obvious global warming data.

I showed you pictures of a glacier taken during the last 15 years; during the supposed pause in global warming that you like to talk about so much. I provided a link that contains many, many more similar pictures of other glaciers. A link from the USGS mind you, not some crack-pot denialist rag. I was providing visual data to debunk your denialist view of what has actually been happening, again, during the last 15 years, and you reply by telling me to look at a map of the last ice age. This makes sense how?

[Nyknicks4412]

Lets post pictures of melting glaciers and scare everyone!!!!

North Pole 1962...two U.S. subs actually surfaced. Ice melts and water freezes.


These models that were used to predict climate change stated we would see huge losses in ice sheets. We are not seeing that

35 Year High for ice cover in Antarctica and the second largest ever recorded?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... -saturday/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So please look at the whole picture. Not one.

Looking at the history of Earth makes sense because you cannot just look at the difference in one glacier over a 15 year period and state "LOOK IT MELTED THESE PROVE THE FACTS". Have you even looked at the historical science in regards to temperature fluctuations. Or did you just watch some youtube video on polar bears and decide that was it and you couldn't argue with the facts.

[Rime & Reason]

These models that were used to predict climate change stated we would see huge losses in ice sheets. We are not seeing that

35 Year High for ice cover in Antarctica and the second largest ever recorded?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ... -saturday/

So please look at the whole picture. Not one.

Looking at the history of Earth makes sense because you cannot just look at the difference in one glacier over a 15 year period and state "LOOK IT MELTED THESE PROVE THE FACTS". Have you even looked at the historical science in regards to temperature fluctuations. Or did you just watch some youtube video on polar bears and decide that was it and you couldn't argue with the facts.

Okay, I will repeat myself because you denialists do not seem to understand anything the first time you read it. I am saying that the supposed pause in global warming that you guys like to claim has been going on for the last 15 years does not really exist. As proof, I provided photos, and words, and links, of glaciers that continued to melt during the time frame claimed to be part of this pause. The link does provide pictures of melting glaciers over much longer time frames, but that is not what my post was concerned with.

With regards to your claim of a “35 Year High for ice cover in Antarctica and the second largest ever recorded” I think it is you that needs to look at the whole picture. While it is true that Antarctica is gaining Sea Ice, it is also losing Land Ice. This article explains why this is an important distinction and why the Antarctic ice situation actually supports the global warming theory.
https://www.skepticalscience.com/antarc ... -basic.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[jpski]

Back to the post question; Can CO2 cause climate change? Ice core samples show that when ever the Earth warms up, there is more CO2 in the atmosphere, thus showing up in the ice. If you want to know what happens when a planets atmosphere is over run by CO2, study Venus.
Most theories state, from accumulated data that the CO2 causes the warming and not the other way around.

[Bubba]

R &R - the pause is cited by the IPCC and climate scientists in general. It is not a denialist plot or anything else.

[Stache]

Lets post pictures of melting glaciers and scare everyone!!!!

North Pole 1962...two U.S. subs actually surfaced. Ice melts and water freezes.


....

One of my biggest boasts is having had the opportunity to travel all around the earth in 12 minutes.
Ayup, full circumnavigation of all 360 degrees of longitude in 12 minutes.

[Rime & Reason]

R &R - the pause is cited by the IPCC and climate scientists in general. It is not a denialist plot or anything else.

The “pause” is only in air temperature, not in the whole of global warming. The denialist claim that global warming has paused is wrong, but I will let Coydog explain it to you, again…

Climate change: The case of the missing heat

Who pressed the pause button?

Global Warming 'Pause' Isn't What Climate Change Skeptics Say It Is

Global Warming Since 1997 Underestimated by Half

For those more academically minded:

Observing changes in the climate system (PDF, 2 MB)

Recent pause in global warming (PDF, 1 MB)

[Bubba]

Nobody has said warming has stopped only that, contrary to models that predicted continuing warming, the warming has paused. It's an indication that models are incorrect and that predictions are suspect.

[Rime & Reason]

Nobody has said warming has stopped only that, contrary to models that predicted continuing warming, the warming has paused. It's an indication that models are incorrect and that predictions are suspect.

Stopped vs. paused? If no one said stopped then why are you saying it now? No matter…

This is cherry picking one set of data by the denialists and trying to spin it to mean something more than it really does. 1998 was an exceptionally hot year in the atmosphere. Unfortunately, it is making it seem like atmospheric warming has paused since then while the average is simply catching up to that anomaly. Trying to get us to focus on this one thing, while ignoring so many other indicators, is just grasping at straws. Can I once again direct you to Coydog’s posted graphic with the 6 charts? Global warming has not paused, sadly, it is still marching on.

[Bubba]

Nobody has said warming has stopped only that, contrary to models that predicted continuing warming, the warming has paused. It's an indication that models are incorrect and that predictions are suspect.

Stopped vs. paused? If no one said stopped then why are you saying it now? No matter…

This is cherry picking one set of data by the denialists and trying to spin it to mean something more than it really does. 1998 was an exceptionally hot year in the atmosphere. Unfortunately, it is making it seem like atmospheric warming has paused since then while the average is simply catching up to that anomaly. Trying to get us to focus on this one thing, while ignoring so many other indicators, is just grasping at straws. Can I once again direct you to Coydog’s posted graphic with the 6 charts? Global warming has not paused, sadly, it is still marching on.

The point is that predictive models used to drive policy decisions have so far proven to be incorrect. If you can't verify predictions you can't support the policies driven by those projections. We're back to what I said 3 or 4 pages ago: take reasonable steps that are economically justifiable, continue research, and allow technology development to continue.

[Sgt Eddy Brewers]

Nobody has said warming has stopped only that, contrary to models that predicted continuing warming, the warming has paused. It's an indication that models are incorrect and that predictions are suspect.

Stopped vs. paused? If no one said stopped then why are you saying it now? No matter…

This is cherry picking one set of data by the denialists and trying to spin it to mean something more than it really does. 1998 was an exceptionally hot year in the atmosphere. Unfortunately, it is making it seem like atmospheric warming has paused since then while the average is simply catching up to that anomaly. Trying to get us to focus on this one thing, while ignoring so many other indicators, is just grasping at straws. Can I once again direct you to Coydog’s posted graphic with the 6 charts? Global warming has not paused, sadly, it is still marching on.

Sorry but anyone who is paying attention to developments in climate science knows that there has been an UNPREDICTED change in atmospheric warming over the last 15 years of more. Most of the "consensus" scientists are willing to label it a "pause" and are trying to expand their theories to accommodate the unexpected data. Streamtracker and Coydog are well read and have posted a link from Nature which admits there is a pause:

http://www.nature.com/news/climate-chan ... at-1.14525" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So the ranting about how stupid us "denialist" hillbillies are for claiming there is a "pause in atmospheric warming is frankly a bit comical.

It's hard to get very upset by all the ad hominem attacks against "deniers" that get posted here... for two reasons.

One, the whole idea speaks of a lack of confidence in your ideas. If you truly understood and accepted the ideas you think are held by the consensus you could simply explain them in reasonable language to us simple folk. But instead of explanations we get invectives and links to articles which are mostly not germane to the actual issue being discussed.

The second reason I am not that bothered is that I think that time is on my side (cue Mick Jagger?) Every year for the last decade, and I have been obsessed with this for a decade, the case of the skeptics has become more compelling not less. The screaming has been getting louder but less and less people are listening. I think (would bet but it makes some folks mad) that the world will probably get cooler still in the next decade and the "Consensus" will be quietly overturned.

Overturn a consensus???? Impossible!!!! or NOT?

Remember until this last month most folks considered the linkage of saturated fats to heart disease an unimpeachable truism. That was a consensus much larger and long lived than the AGW consensus. Turns out there wasn't a CONSPIRACY of scientists that lied to us all about saturated fats... it just turned out that giant consensus GOT IT WRONG. All of them, way more of them that the climate science "consensus", got it wrong (at least according to the best current evidence) Any of you ranters about the value on consensus in science want to field that one?
A good link to start from is this:
http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=11947" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts"

[Rime & Reason]

Nobody has said warming has stopped only that, contrary to models that predicted continuing warming, the warming has paused. It's an indication that models are incorrect and that predictions are suspect.

Stopped vs. paused? If no one said stopped then why are you saying it now? No matter…

This is cherry picking one set of data by the denialists and trying to spin it to mean something more than it really does. 1998 was an exceptionally hot year in the atmosphere. Unfortunately, it is making it seem like atmospheric warming has paused since then while the average is simply catching up to that anomaly. Trying to get us to focus on this one thing, while ignoring so many other indicators, is just grasping at straws. Can I once again direct you to Coydog’s posted graphic with the 6 charts? Global warming has not paused, sadly, it is still marching on.

The point is that predictive models used to drive policy decisions have so far proven to be incorrect. If you can't verify predictions you can't support the policies driven by those projections. We're back to what I said 3 or 4 pages ago: take reasonable steps that are economically justifiable, continue research, and allow technology development to continue.

No, that is not the point. The point is: Stop saying that global warming has paused over the last 15 years when it has not.

[Rime & Reason]

A good link to start from is this:
http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=11947" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Really Sgt Eddy? Now you are ranting about saturated fats in your global warming thread? Oh, my. I really enjoy your love of kooky bloggers, in this case we see at the top of your link that it is William M. Briggs, who bills himself as “Statistician to the Stars” and then asks, “Why haven’t you booked me as a speaker yet? Seriously. What are you waiting for?”

Anyone that does not yet think Sgt Eddy is a bit of a kook should also read this article. The title sure sounds familiar.
"William M. Briggs has misunderstood a high-school level data graph"
http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2012/ ... misunders/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

At least my link is about global warming.

[Bubba]

Nobody has said warming has stopped only that, contrary to models that predicted continuing warming, the warming has paused. It's an indication that models are incorrect and that predictions are suspect.

Stopped vs. paused? If no one said stopped then why are you saying it now? No matter…

This is cherry picking one set of data by the denialists and trying to spin it to mean something more than it really does. 1998 was an exceptionally hot year in the atmosphere. Unfortunately, it is making it seem like atmospheric warming has paused since then while the average is simply catching up to that anomaly. Trying to get us to focus on this one thing, while ignoring so many other indicators, is just grasping at straws. Can I once again direct you to Coydog’s posted graphic with the 6 charts? Global warming has not paused, sadly, it is still marching on.

The point is that predictive models used to drive policy decisions have so far proven to be incorrect. If you can't verify predictions you can't support the policies driven by those projections. We're back to what I said 3 or 4 pages ago: take reasonable steps that are economically justifiable, continue research, and allow technology development to continue.

No, that is not the point. The point is: Stop saying that global warming has paused over the last 15 years when it has not.

The IPCC says there has been a pause. That's not good enough for you? It's the same group that now tells us science is now 95% sure that at least 50% of the warming is man made.

[Rime & Reason]

Nobody has said warming has stopped only that, contrary to models that predicted continuing warming, the warming has paused. It's an indication that models are incorrect and that predictions are suspect.

Stopped vs. paused? If no one said stopped then why are you saying it now? No matter…

This is cherry picking one set of data by the denialists and trying to spin it to mean something more than it really does. 1998 was an exceptionally hot year in the atmosphere. Unfortunately, it is making it seem like atmospheric warming has paused since then while the average is simply catching up to that anomaly. Trying to get us to focus on this one thing, while ignoring so many other indicators, is just grasping at straws. Can I once again direct you to Coydog’s posted graphic with the 6 charts? Global warming has not paused, sadly, it is still marching on.

The point is that predictive models used to drive policy decisions have so far proven to be incorrect. If you can't verify predictions you can't support the policies driven by those projections. We're back to what I said 3 or 4 pages ago: take reasonable steps that are economically justifiable, continue research, and allow technology development to continue.

No, that is not the point. The point is: Stop saying that global warming has paused over the last 15 years when it has not.

The IPCC says there has been a pause. That's not good enough for you? It's the same group that now tells us science is now 95% sure that at least 50% of the warming is man made.

No, it is not good enough for me. The IPCC says there has been a pause in Global Mean Surface Temperature. The ocean depths are still warming, the glaciers are still melting, the Arctic Ocean sea ice is still melting, The Greenland and Antarctic land ice is still melting…

Let’s say you have a glass of iced tea. What is the surface temperature? About 32 degrees. Now wait a while, until half the ice melts, and what is the new surface temperature? Still about 32 degrees! What is going to happen to the surface temperature once all your ice melts?