Science Rant, Not politics: Can CO2 cause "Climate Change?"

[brownman]

These 100 year storm events sure appear to be occurring with regularity .. several each decade lately.
That must just be a coincidence.

Ocean water temps at Wellfleet have been delightfully warm this summer.

[madhatter]

These 100 year storm events sure appear to be occurring with regularity .. several each decade lately.
That must just be a coincidence.

Ocean water temps at Wellfleet have been delightfully warm this summer.

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/12251" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It has been a decade since the last major hurricane, Category 3 or higher, has made landfall in the United States. This is the longest period of time for the United States to avoid a major hurricane since reliable records began in 1850. According to a NASA study, a 10-year gap comes along only every 270 years.

The National Hurricane Center calls any Category 3 or more intense hurricane a “major” storm. It should be noted that hurricanes making landfall as less than Category 3 can still cause extreme damage, with heavy r*ins and coastal storm surges. Such was the case with Hurricane Sandy in 2012.

Timothy Hall, a research scientist who studies hurricanes at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York and colleague Kelly Hereid, who works for ACE Tempest Re, a reinsurance firm based in Connecticut, ran a statistical hurricane model based on a record of Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1950 to 2012 and sea surface temperature data.

The researchers ran 1,000 computer simulations of the period from 1950-2012 – in effect simulating 63,000 separate Atlantic hurricane seasons. They also found that there is approximately a 40% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall in the United States every year.

These visualizations show hurricane tracks from 1980 through 2015. Green tracks are storms that did not make landfall in the U.S.; yellow tracks are storms that made landfall but were not Category 3 or higher; and red tracks are Category 3 or higher hurricanes that did make landfall.

^^^ignorant brownoise on display^^^

[Mister Moose]

These 100 year storm events sure appear to be occurring with regularity .. several each decade lately.
That must just be a coincidence.

Ocean water temps at Wellfleet have been delightfully warm this summer.

You don't understand the concept of a hundred year storm. Hundred year storms DO occur with regularity.... somewhere. It's not the biggest storm in a hundred years in the whole country. It's a statistical peak flow of water for a given location.

With the vast number of storms and the vast number of locations, the odds of hundred year flows occurring several times a decade is probably a very conservative estimate nationwide, and not indicative of some imminent climate disaster.

[rogman]

And yet she warms. To wit, 2016 is the hottest year in UAH satellite record, evah.

Carry on.

Houston just set the record for rainfall associated with a tropical storm. 51 inches, and likely to go higher. Madhatter is the fastest biker in his age group, but only on Wednesdays, and only at Snowshed. Bears are on the increase, setting bear sighting records.

In each case, I'm not converting to Gorism, I'm not buying stock in Madhatter Wheaties boxes, and I'm not putting up bear fence.

I think everyone on the board agrees there has been some warming. And that the satellite data dates back less than 40 years.

That's rich. A denialist complaining about cherry picking. At least this puts to bed another of SEB's favorite cherry picked stats, major hurricanes making continental US landfall within the last whatever years. We have Katrina/New Orleans; Sandy/NYC,NJ; and now Harvey/Houston. To say nothing of Irene/Vt. Regardless, it isn't the wind, it's the water.

How much worse is Harvey due to climate change? That will be difficult to sort out; won't even try. However, there are several points worth noting with respect to that: The warmer Gulf allows storms like this to grow very quickly. Harvey went from a Cat 1 to Cat 4 at landfall in a short period of time. Additionally, the warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, thus allowing greater rainfall. However the real issue is that the storm stalled: it hasn't moved much for a number of days. This has been one of the side effects predicted of the warmer arctic. Research and papers on this are fairly recent, so I can't say this has been thoroughly vetted, but the gist of it is that the lower temperature differential between the mid latitudes and the arctic affects the jet stream in a manner that makes it more likely that storms may stall. Data points; not proof of anything.

There are specific problems with Houston that led to this disaster as well. It was built on low lying land, and poor (or no) enforcement of wetlands regulations allowed them to be filled and thus there was no where for water to go. The developers that were aided by this laissez faire approach are not the ones that are impacted. Worse, many of the homeowners are uninsured because outdated flood plain maps meant that people did not need flood insurance to get mortgages. Many homeowners are literally underwater. Well thought out regulations may slow down construction; and that isn't always a bad thing.

After a disaster like this, everyone is a socialist. Ironic to see the Texas delegation (which voted en masse against funds for Sandy) saying that this is completely different. As Tip O'Neill said, "All politics is local".

[daytripper]

And yet she warms. To wit, 2016 is the hottest year in UAH satellite record, evah.

Carry on.

Houston just set the record for rainfall associated with a tropical storm. 51 inches, and likely to go higher. Madhatter is the fastest biker in his age group, but only on Wednesdays, and only at Snowshed. Bears are on the increase, setting bear sighting records.

In each case, I'm not converting to Gorism, I'm not buying stock in Madhatter Wheaties boxes, and I'm not putting up bear fence.

I think everyone on the board agrees there has been some warming. And that the satellite data dates back less than 40 years.

Wait a second!! Are you trying to say that 40 years isn't a long enough sample size for a planet that has had weather for billions of years???!? I call blasphemy!!

[madhatter]

And yet she warms. To wit, 2016 is the hottest year in UAH satellite record, evah.

Carry on.

Houston just set the record for rainfall associated with a tropical storm. 51 inches, and likely to go higher. Madhatter is the fastest biker in his age group, but only on Wednesdays, and only at Snowshed. Bears are on the increase, setting bear sighting records.

In each case, I'm not converting to Gorism, I'm not buying stock in Madhatter Wheaties boxes, and I'm not putting up bear fence.

I think everyone on the board agrees there has been some warming. And that the satellite data dates back less than 40 years.

That's rich. A denialist complaining about cherry picking. At least this puts to bed another of SEB's favorite cherry picked stats, major hurricanes making continental US landfall within the last whatever years. pretty sure those stats come from nasa and thet they have actually publicized them...It has been a decade since the last major hurricane, Category 3 or higher, has made landfall in the United States. This is the longest period of time for the United States to avoid a major hurricane since reliable records began in 1850. According to a NASA study, a 10-year gap comes along only every 270 years.

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/12251" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The National Hurricane Center calls any Category 3 or more intense hurricane a “major” storm. It should be noted that hurricanes making landfall as less than Category 3 can still cause extreme damage, with heavy r*ins and coastal storm surges. Such was the case with Hurricane Sandy in 2012.

Timothy Hall, a research scientist who studies hurricanes at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York and colleague Kelly Hereid, who works for ACE Tempest Re, a reinsurance firm based in Connecticut, ran a statistical hurricane model based on a record of Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1950 to 2012 and sea surface temperature data.

The researchers ran 1,000 computer simulations of the period from 1950-2012 – in effect simulating 63,000 separate Atlantic hurricane seasons. They also found that there is approximately a 40% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall in the United States every year.

These visualizations show hurricane tracks from 1980 through 2015. Green tracks are storms that did not make landfall in the U.S.; yellow tracks are storms that made landfall but were not Category 3 or higher; and red tracks are Category 3 or higher hurricanes that did make landfall.
We have Katrina/New Orleans; Sandy/NYC,NJ; and now Harvey/Houston. To say nothing of Irene/Vt. Regardless, it isn't the wind, it's the water.

How much worse is Harvey due to climate change? That will be difficult to sort out; won't even try. However, there are several points worth noting with respect to that: The warmer Gulf allows storms like this to grow very quickly. Harvey went from a Cat 1 to Cat 4 at landfall in a short period of time. Additionally, the warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, thus allowing greater rainfall. However the real issue is that the storm stalled: it hasn't moved much for a number of days. This has been one of the side effects predicted of the warmer arctic. Research and papers on this are fairly recent, so I can't say this has been thoroughly vetted, but the gist of it is that the lower temperature differential between the mid latitudes and the arctic affects the jet stream in a manner that makes it more likely that storms may stall. Data points; not proof of anything. one of your most astute comments regarding this...

There are specific problems with Houston that led to this disaster as well. It was built on low lying land, and poor (or no) enforcement of wetlands regulations allowed them to be filled and thus there was no where for water to go. The developers that were aided by this laissez faire approach are not the ones that are impacted. Worse, many of the homeowners are uninsured because outdated flood plain maps meant that people did not need flood insurance to get mortgages. Many homeowners are literally underwater. Well thought out regulations may slow down construction; and that isn't always a bad thing.

After a disaster like this, everyone is a socialist. Ironic to see the Texas delegation (which voted en masse against funds for Sandy) saying that this is completely different. As Tip O'Neill said, "All politics is local".

you guys will say ANYTHING to support your fantasy tax...still it won't happen....

[brownman]

These 100 year storm events sure appear to be occurring with regularity .. several each decade lately.
That must just be a coincidence.

Ocean water temps at Wellfleet have been delightfully warm this summer.

You don't understand the concept of a hundred year storm. Hundred year storms DO occur with regularity.... somewhere. It's not the biggest storm in a hundred years in the whole country. It's a statistical peak flow of water for a given location.

With the vast number of storms and the vast number of locations, the odds of hundred year flows occurring several times a decade is probably a very conservative estimate nationwide, and not indicative of some imminent climate disaster.

Thank you Chap Lipshutz
Having dealt with the impact of 2 recent 100 year storms, I made an observation. You silly people wet your panties.

[f.a.s.t.]

These 100 year storm events sure appear to be occurring with regularity .. several each decade lately.
That must just be a coincidence.

Ocean water temps at Wellfleet have been delightfully warm this summer.

What side--harbor or ocean, or both? How's the Beachcomber?

[Mister Moose]

That's rich. A denialist complaining about cherry picking. At least this puts to bed another of SEB's favorite cherry picked stats, major hurricanes making continental US landfall within the last whatever years. We have Katrina/New Orleans; Sandy/NYC,NJ; and now Harvey/Houston. To say nothing of Irene/Vt. Regardless, it isn't the wind, it's the water.

How much worse is Harvey due to climate change? That will be difficult to sort out; won't even try. However, there are several points worth noting with respect to that: The warmer Gulf allows storms like this to grow very quickly. Harvey went from a Cat 1 to Cat 4 at landfall in a short period of time. Additionally, the warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, thus allowing greater rainfall. However the real issue is that the storm stalled: it hasn't moved much for a number of days. This has been one of the side effects predicted of the warmer arctic. Research and papers on this are fairly recent, so I can't say this has been thoroughly vetted, but the gist of it is that the lower temperature differential between the mid latitudes and the arctic affects the jet stream in a manner that makes it more likely that storms may stall. Data points; not proof of anything.

There are specific problems with Houston that led to this disaster as well. It was built on low lying land, and poor (or no) enforcement of wetlands regulations allowed them to be filled and thus there was no where for water to go. The developers that were aided by this laissez faire approach are not the ones that are impacted. Worse, many of the homeowners are uninsured because outdated flood plain maps meant that people did not need flood insurance to get mortgages. Many homeowners are literally underwater. Well thought out regulations may slow down construction; and that isn't always a bad thing.

I'm not a denialist. However feel free to call me a questioning non-conformist. Something you once were.

Warmer air might hold more water, but that is not definitive. What matters is what percent of that higher water content is squeezed out vs previously. Perhaps you should show us how that happens and by what amount.

51 inches of r*in in a few days cares very little about impervious soils. In addition, the parts of Houston I saw had numerous deep and wide drainage channels to carry off runoff. The biggest reason "it has nowhere to go" is that it is pool table flat. There is no place for the water to run in any hurry. It just sits. And it's a swamp.

So lets look at some data.

Huricanes.jpg (49.37 KiB) Viewed 402 times

The red line is the number of hurricanes in each decade that were Cat 3 or higher.
The green line is the total number of hurricanes in that decade.
The blue line is the number of major hurricanes (Cat 3 or higher) as a percentage of the total number of storms.

I don't see any significant changes in the number of major hurricanes, and I don't see any increase since global warming became a concern.

The total number of storms in each decade has decreased, not increased in the last 150 years. (Attention Brownman)

The percentage of storms that are major (Rogman's argument) has decreased since 2 peaks in 1940 and 1960.

[brownman]

Attention to an incomplete dataset .. not likely.

Never said anything about Hurricanes. Just made an observation from personal experience.
You are apparently unaware of the weather phenomenon known as tropical storms.
Factor that into your cute graphic, you'll find the number and intensity of those storms are increasing.
Sadly, Irene and Sandy cost many of us lots of money and lots of time.

Carry On.

[Big Bob]

It sounds like the same idiots that allowed New Orleans to be built below sea level also allowed Houston to expand. I hope they got all the pumps working in the big easy! Hurricane season has just begun... And we might be saying hello to Irma in the next week or so.

[deadheadskier]

These 100 year storm events sure appear to be occurring with regularity .. several each decade lately.
That must just be a coincidence.

Ocean water temps at Wellfleet have been delightfully warm this summer.

You don't understand the concept of a hundred year storm. Hundred year storms DO occur with regularity.... somewhere. It's not the biggest storm in a hundred years in the whole country. It's a statistical peak flow of water for a given location.

With the vast number of storms and the vast number of locations, the odds of hundred year flows occurring several times a decade is probably a very conservative estimate nationwide, and not indicative of some imminent climate disaster.

This is the 3rd 500 year flood Houston has experienced in the past three years.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/won ... -possible/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

People should just shrug their shoulders to that right?

And when it comes to the cost of rebuilding the place, which all of us share in, we also should just shrug our shoulders at the fact that the current administration wishes to ignore science in favor of development by rolling back policy nationally to match the lack of zoning in Houston right? It's worked out swimmingly for Houston!

https://qz.com/1064364/hurricane-harvey ... struction/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[madhatter]

Attention to an incomplete dataset .. not likely.willful ignorance one of your most dominant characteristics...

Never said anything about Hurricanes. Just made an observation from personal experience.one that was demonstrably wrong...
You are apparently unaware of the weather phenomenon known as tropical storms.you are apparent;ly aware that those are not considered "major" storms,

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/12251

The National Hurricane Center calls any Category 3 or more intense hurricane a “major” storm. It should be noted that hurricanes making landfall as less than Category 3 can still cause extreme damage, with heavy r*ins and coastal storm surges. Such was the case with Hurricane Sandy in 2012.

the number of which has been DECREASING, and the number of which in the last decade was ZERO not several...
Factor that into your cute graphic, you'll find the number and intensity of those storms are increasing.better check w NASA , ( makers of that "cute graphic") cuz they disagree...
Sadly, Irene and Sandy cost many of us lots of money and lots of time.which is a product of location and poorly invested real estate dollars,
not any sort of increase in frequency or intensity of storms...you were just in the wrong place at the wrong time w apparently inadequately protected property...

Carry On.

[madhatter]

These 100 year storm events sure appear to be occurring with regularity .. several each decade lately.
That must just be a coincidence.

Ocean water temps at Wellfleet have been delightfully warm this summer.

You don't understand the concept of a hundred year storm. Hundred year storms DO occur with regularity.... somewhere. It's not the biggest storm in a hundred years in the whole country. It's a statistical peak flow of water for a given location.

With the vast number of storms and the vast number of locations, the odds of hundred year flows occurring several times a decade is probably a very conservative estimate nationwide, and not indicative of some imminent climate disaster.

This is the 3rd 500 year flood Houston has experienced in the past three years.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/won ... -possible/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

People should just shrug their shoulders to that right?pretty much cuz obviously the "probability" was wrong...

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/ ... od-meaning" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And when it comes to the cost of rebuilding the place, which all of us share in, we also should just shrug our shoulders at the fact that the current administration wishes to ignore science in favor of development by rolling back policy nationally to match the lack of zoning in Houston right? It's worked out swimmingly for Houston!

https://qz.com/1064364/hurricane-harvey ... struction/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/ ... od-meaning" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


if only there were some sort of tax that could eliminate all this....

[deadheadskier]

One would think the tax on society for having to rebuild crap that should have never been built in the first place would be enough of a deterrent, but it appears you are voting for more of that.