Science Rant, Not politics: Can CO2 cause "Climate Change?"

[madhatter]

One would think the tax on society for having to rebuild crap that should have never been built in the first place would be enough of a deterrent, but it appears you are voting for more of that.

nope not at all, in fact I seriously questioned the "logic" of rebuilding the highway here after irene...yer house = yer problem...I don't want the fed gov involved at all, but they will be...

[f.a.s.t.]

These 100 year storm events sure appear to be occurring with regularity .. several each decade lately.
That must just be a coincidence.

Ocean water temps at Wellfleet have been delightfully warm this summer.

You don't understand the concept of a hundred year storm. Hundred year storms DO occur with regularity.... somewhere. It's not the biggest storm in a hundred years in the whole country. It's a statistical peak flow of water for a given location.

With the vast number of storms and the vast number of locations, the odds of hundred year flows occurring several times a decade is probably a very conservative estimate nationwide, and not indicative of some imminent climate disaster.

This is the 3rd 500 year flood Houston has experienced in the past three years.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/won ... -possible/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

People should just shrug their shoulders to that right?

And when it comes to the cost of rebuilding the place, which all of us share in, we also should just shrug our shoulders at the fact that the current administration wishes to ignore science in favor of development by rolling back policy nationally to match the lack of zoning in Houston right? It's worked out swimmingly for Houston!

https://qz.com/1064364/hurricane-harvey ... struction/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

When the Galveston Hurricane killed up to 12,000 people in Texas, was that global warming?

The overall climate of the world has nothing to do with a storm stalling over land for three days. Global warming, climate change or whatever you want to call it didn't matter.

[Mister Moose]

Attention to an incomplete dataset .. not likely.

Never said anything about Hurricanes. Just made an observation from personal experience.
You are apparently unaware of the weather phenomenon known as tropical storms.
Factor that into your cute graphic, you'll find the number and intensity of those storms are increasing.
Sadly, Irene and Sandy cost many of us lots of money and lots of time.

Carry On.

Brownman, before Irene and Sandy were tropical storms, they were hurricanes. They are included in the data.

*Technically, they are extra tropical cyclonic storms of tropical storm force winds, but the TV weatherman uses Tropical Storm when discussing the event in northern latitudes like VT.

[Bubba]

These 100 year storm events sure appear to be occurring with regularity .. several each decade lately.
That must just be a coincidence.

Ocean water temps at Wellfleet have been delightfully warm this summer.

You don't understand the concept of a hundred year storm. Hundred year storms DO occur with regularity.... somewhere. It's not the biggest storm in a hundred years in the whole country. It's a statistical peak flow of water for a given location.

With the vast number of storms and the vast number of locations, the odds of hundred year flows occurring several times a decade is probably a very conservative estimate nationwide, and not indicative of some imminent climate disaster.

This is the 3rd 500 year flood Houston has experienced in the past three years.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/won ... -possible/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

People should just shrug their shoulders to that right?pretty much cuz obviously the "probability" was wrong...

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/ ... od-meaning" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And when it comes to the cost of rebuilding the place, which all of us share in, we also should just shrug our shoulders at the fact that the current administration wishes to ignore science in favor of development by rolling back policy nationally to match the lack of zoning in Houston right? It's worked out swimmingly for Houston!

https://qz.com/1064364/hurricane-harvey ... struction/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/ ... od-meaning" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


if only there were some sort of tax that could eliminate all this....

You might have overlooked this reference to climate change contained in the article. If man made climate change is real, there is a tax that theoretically could mitigate all this.

"But probability never works out perfectly in practice (as you know if you’ve ever flipped a coin twice and gotten heads or tails both times). And it’s especially hard to get the probability of an event perfect when the circumstances keep changing — as they do when we’re talking about weather events, which become more or less common depending on the underlying climate. And current climate change trends could easily increase the chance of bad flooding — there’s more water vapor in the atmosphere now (ready to condense into storm clouds and precipitation), for example, than there was 70 years ago."

[Mister Moose]

One would think the tax on society for having to rebuild crap that should have never been built in the first place would be enough of a deterrent, but it appears you are voting for more of that.

nope not at all, in fact I seriously questioned the "logic" of rebuilding the highway here after irene...yer house = yer problem...I don't want the fed gov involved at all, but they will be...

Let's imagine we could predict with certainty that route 107 will wash out every 200 years. Knowing that, wouldn't we still rebuild it every time and accept that lifetime since the need for that route is worth that cost?

I'm sure there are flood prone areas that are worth rebuilding, and some that are not.

[Mister Moose]

" And current climate change trends could easily increase the chance of bad flooding — there’s more water vapor in the atmosphere now (ready to condense into storm clouds and precipitation), for example, than there was 70 years ago."

Waitaminute.

Isn't the entire earth and atmosphere warming? So wouldn't the temp at 15,000 (to pick an altitude of cloud formation) feet be warmer as well? So the temperature difference which causes condensation would not be so straightforward a relationship as your quote states?

As I previously asked Rogman, how do we know how much increased precip falls as a result of a 1/2 degree warmer air?

[madhatter]

One would think the tax on society for having to rebuild crap that should have never been built in the first place would be enough of a deterrent, but it appears you are voting for more of that.

nope not at all, in fact I seriously questioned the "logic" of rebuilding the highway here after irene...yer house = yer problem...I don't want the fed gov involved at all, but they will be...

Let's imagine we could predict with certainty that route 107 will wash out every 200 years. Knowing that, wouldn't we still rebuild it every time and accept that lifetime since the need for that route is worth that cost?

I'm sure there are flood prone areas that are worth rebuilding, and some that are not.

when I looked at the number of people it "served" and the location and expense of any rebuild the per capita expense seems high...it's still basically "in" the riverbed... and still only 1500 or so people live in the area affected...a re-route of traffic may have been more cost effective...better for me that it got rebuilt, but had it not I wold have understood why and would not have "lobbied" for it's rebuild at public expense...

[freeski]

If the atmosphere was rapidly warming because of ManBearPig wouldn't the likelihood of a hurricane sitting and spinning for 5 days be extremely remote? Lots of variables here man does not come close to understanding.

What was the forecast? Major hurricane 2 days out? Wasn't it supposed to go straight to the Yucatan Peninsula? The Weather Channel was claiming they could predict hurricane impact on a neighborhood and they can't even get the country right?

Very cool here in NH. Think Snow!

[Mister Moose]

Let's imagine we could predict with certainty that route 107 will wash out every 200 years. Knowing that, wouldn't we still rebuild it every time and accept that lifetime since the need for that route is worth that cost?

I'm sure there are flood prone areas that are worth rebuilding, and some that are not.

when I looked at the number of people it "served" and the location and expense of any rebuild the per capita expense seems high...it's still basically "in" the riverbed... and still only 1500 or so people live in the area affected...a re-route of traffic may have been more cost effective...better for me that it got rebuilt, but had it not I wold have understood why and would not have "lobbied" for it's rebuild at public expense...

That route serves more than those who live along it. Pittsfield, Killington, Plymouth, Ludlow, Chester, etc would all use it going to Barre or Montpelier.

[madhatter]

Let's imagine we could predict with certainty that route 107 will wash out every 200 years. Knowing that, wouldn't we still rebuild it every time and accept that lifetime since the need for that route is worth that cost?

I'm sure there are flood prone areas that are worth rebuilding, and some that are not.

when I looked at the number of people it "served" and the location and expense of any rebuild the per capita expense seems high...it's still basically "in" the riverbed... and still only 1500 or so people live in the area affected...a re-route of traffic may have been more cost effective...better for me that it got rebuilt, but had it not I wold have understood why and would not have "lobbied" for it's rebuild at public expense...

That route serves more than those who live along it. Pittsfield, Killington, Plymouth, Ludlow, Chester, etc would all use it going to Barre or Montpelier.

there are alternate routes...biggest purpose is points north/rutland commerce and not having it go thru woodstock...107 south from 89 to bethel/12S was virtually unscathed...from 100N, 107 was a washout serving a few hundred people...

[Mister Moose]

there are alternate routes...biggest purpose is points north/rutland commerce and not having it go thru woodstock...107 south from 89 to bethel/12S was virtually unscathed...from 100N, 107 was a washout serving a few hundred people...

You got my curiosity going. A simple search finds -

The first 5 miles of 107 at the Stockbridge end sees 3400 cars per day on an average annualized basis. That compares to only 760 on 100A which has seen extensive work both after Irene and this summer. Rte 100 in Rochester is 2100, Rte 100 in Ludlow is 3000.

So it would seem 107 sees more traffic than you might think. As in climate change, data is better than anecdotal estimates.

http://vtrans.vermont.gov/sites/aot/fil ... 0State.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[madhatter]

there are alternate routes...biggest purpose is points north/rutland commerce and not having it go thru woodstock...107 south from 89 to bethel/12S was virtually unscathed...from 100N, 107 was a washout serving a few hundred people...

You got my curiosity going. A simple search finds -

The first 5 miles of 107 at the Stockbridge end sees 3400 cars per day on an average annualized basis. That compares to only 760 on 100A which has seen extensive work both after Irene and this summer. Rte 100 in Rochester is 2100, Rte 100 in Ludlow is 3000.

So it would seem 107 sees more traffic than you might think. As in climate change, data is better than anecdotal estimates.

http://vtrans.vermont.gov/sites/aot/fil ... 0State.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

it sees plenty of traffic, but how much of it is local or could be routed thru woodstock? over bethel mtn etc? not many people live between 107/100 and 12/107...there are class 4 rds up over to 100 from where I am that could serve the 100 or fewer people who need them for access...I never said the road ( 107) wasn't useful or used...what I said was I questioned the expense of rebuilding it in the same spot...basically in the riverbed...also many EPA regulations were suspended in order to pull this off...and again I'm not saying that wasn't necessary, but it was certainly odd to see huge trucks and excavating machinery actually in the river...

[Coydog]

And yet she warms. To wit, 2016 is the hottest year in UAH satellite record, evah.

Carry on.

Houston just set the record for rainfall associated with a tropical storm. 51 inches, and likely to go higher. Madhatter is the fastest biker in his age group, but only on Wednesdays, and only at Snowshed and only since John Lamb left . Bears are on the increase, setting bear sighting records.

In each case, I'm not converting to Gorism, I'm not buying stock in Madhatter Wheaties boxes, and I'm not putting up bear fence.

I think everyone on the board agrees there has been some warming. And that the satellite data dates back less than 40 years.

The satellite record tends to be the dataset of choice for the head-in-sand denialists - I refer you to the many SEB screeds. But now that the timeline spans multiple decades and the warming trend has become obvious, these datasets (UAH and RSS) have become somewhat less of a gold standard for that group.

The devastation in Houston is a combination of natural and man made factors - just like climate change itself. Climate change is a long term problem, short term "not my problem" thinking is, at best, short sighted.

Frankly, a lot of the denialist discussion in here sounds like a bunch of twenty somethings convincing themselves that harmful effects from long term tobacco smoking is a hoax promoted by the Chinese.

"The data is inconclusive and I feel fine. Besides, my Uncle Lewie smoked two packs a day but lived to the ripe old age of 61, though he did die of lung cancer that he probably got from all those bears."

[madhatter]

And yet she warms. To wit, 2016 is the hottest year in UAH satellite record, evah.

Carry on.

Houston just set the record for rainfall associated with a tropical storm. 51 inches, and likely to go higher. Madhatter is the fastest biker in his age group, but only on Wednesdays, and only at Snowshed and only since John Lamb left . Bears are on the increase, setting bear sighting records.

In each case, I'm not converting to Gorism, I'm not buying stock in Madhatter Wheaties boxes, and I'm not putting up bear fence.

I think everyone on the board agrees there has been some warming. And that the satellite data dates back less than 40 years.

The satellite record tends to be the dataset of choice for the head-in-sand denialists - I refer you to the many SEB screeds. But now that the timeline spans multiple decades and the warming trend has become obvious, these datasets (UAH and RSS) have become somewhat less of a gold standard for that group.

The devastation in Houston is a combination of natural and man made factors - just like climate change itself. Climate change is a long term problem, short term "not my problem" thinking is, at best, short sighted.

Frankly, a lot of the denialist discussion in here sounds like a bunch of twenty somethings convincing themselves that harmful effects from long term tobacco smoking is a hoax promoted by the Chinese.

"The data is inconclusive and I feel fine. Besides, my Uncle Lewie smoked two packs a day but lived to the ripe old age of 61, though he did die of lung cancer that he probably got from all those bears."

bla bla bla....there isn't any evidence that any solution is viable or even possible...bottom line, a carbon tax isn't the answer...feel free to make voluntary contributions if you'd like...

[Bubba]

These 100 year storm events sure appear to be occurring with regularity .. several each decade lately.
That must just be a coincidence.

Ocean water temps at Wellfleet have been delightfully warm this summer.

What side--harbor or ocean, or both? How's the Beachcomber?

Beachcomber parking lot was full around 2:00 today so we ate at Mac's on the Pier instead.