T R U M P vs. Hillary - who wins?

[brownman]

Need to try that again.

Yeah .. his pictures render BIGLY .. unlike the manifesto.

[madhatter]

http://endingthefed.com/crushing-hillar ... mbers.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;




Trump won 31 states to 19 states won by Hillary or 62% of the states.


According to the NYT she won 59,923,027 to Trump’s 59,692,974 for a difference of only 230,053 or 0.4%. But in California and New York Hillary beat Trump by a combined 4 million votes. If not for these two huge liberal states, Hillary would have gotten shellacked in the popular voting as well.


Trump won BIGLY!

[madhatter]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-1 ... amatically" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

'member jimmy carter...





I know someone else who also voted trump in the primaries so the D's could beat up on him in the general...

http://www.redcloverinn.com/dining/dinner" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Mister Moose]

Trump won BIGLY!

George Will, Fox News Sunday:

"One third of the house Democrat caucus comes from only three states: New York, California, and Massachusetts. ... The Democrat party is in danger of becoming a regional party"

I'm sure there will be no shortage of Trump blunders and other Republican goofs to come along in the next 4 years, along with some strong Democrats that emerge. But still an interesting statement.

History, if it repeats itself, will see a gain in Democrat seats in 2018 to object to Trump's mistakes and controversial decisions, so this may be the low point of Democrat office holdings. If Trump fashions a popular replacement to Obamacare, bolsters border security and employment/economy improves, much less so.

[madhatter]

Trump won BIGLY!

George Will, Fox News Sunday:

"One third of the house Democrat caucus comes from only three states: New York, California, and Massachusetts. ... The Democrat party is in danger of becoming a regional party"

I'm sure there will be no shortage of Trump blunders and other Republican goofs to come along in the next 4 years, along with some strong Democrats that emerge. But still an interesting statement.

History, if it repeats itself, will see a gain in Democrat seats in 2018 to object to Trump's mistakes and controversial decisions, so this may be the low point of Democrat office holdings. If Trump fashions a popular replacement to Obamacare, bolsters border security and employment/economy improves, much less so.

VERY unlikely as the dems will be defending 24 seats 11 of which are likely to be highly contested vs the R's 7 6 of which are in pretty Red areas..Nevada being the exception...an house gains will be minimal as well...THIS was supposed to be the year when all the stars aligned and the R's were relegated to permanent "also -rans"...

SENATORS UP FOR RE-ELECTION IN 2018

DEMOCRATS

Tammy Baldwin (Wisconsin)
Sherrod Brown (Ohio)
Maria Cantwell (Washington)
Benjamin Cardin (Maryland)
Thomas Carper (Delaware)
Robert Casey, Jr. (Pennsylvania)
Joe Donnelly (Indiana)
Dianne Feinstein (California)
Kirsten Gillibrand (New York)
Martin Heinrich (New Mexico)
Heidi Heitkamp (North Dakota)
Mazie Hirono (Hawaii)
Tim Kaine (Virginia)
Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota)
Joe Manchin III (West Virginia)
Claire McCaskill (Missouri)
Robert Menendez (New Jersey)
Christopher Murphy (Connecticut)
Bill Nelson (Florida)
Debbie Stabenow (Michigan)
Jon Tester (Montana)
Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts)
Sheldon Whitehouse (Rhode Island)


REPUBLICANS

John Barrasso (Wyoming)
Bob Corker (Tennessee)
Ted Cruz (Texas)
Deb Fischer (Nebraska)
Jeff Flake (Arizona)
Orrin Hatch (Utah)
Dean Heller (Nevada)
INDEPENDENTS
Angus King, Jr. (Maine)
Bernie Sanders (Vermont)

barring any catastrophic failures legitimately attributable to trump, 2020 is the next opportunity for the D's, IF trump has even moderate success over the first 4 years fuggedaboutit...

[XtremeJibber2001]

Trump won BIGLY!

George Will, Fox News Sunday:

"One third of the house Democrat caucus comes from only three states: New York, California, and Massachusetts. ... The Democrat party is in danger of becoming a regional party"

I'm sure there will be no shortage of Trump blunders and other Republican goofs to come along in the next 4 years, along with some strong Democrats that emerge. But still an interesting statement.

History, if it repeats itself, will see a gain in Democrat seats in 2018 to object to Trump's mistakes and controversial decisions, so this may be the low point of Democrat office holdings. If Trump fashions a popular replacement to Obamacare, bolsters border security and employment/economy improves, much less so.

Even if Trump governs as a populist and makes great improvements to ACA and restores manufacturing/jobs - it won't matter because the media will not be favorable towards him. You can already see it today.

[madhatter]

Trump won BIGLY!

George Will, Fox News Sunday:

"One third of the house Democrat caucus comes from only three states: New York, California, and Massachusetts. ... The Democrat party is in danger of becoming a regional party"

I'm sure there will be no shortage of Trump blunders and other Republican goofs to come along in the next 4 years, along with some strong Democrats that emerge. But still an interesting statement.

History, if it repeats itself, will see a gain in Democrat seats in 2018 to object to Trump's mistakes and controversial decisions, so this may be the low point of Democrat office holdings. If Trump fashions a popular replacement to Obamacare, bolsters border security and employment/economy improves, much less so.

Even if Trump governs as a populist and makes great improvements to ACA and restores manufacturing/jobs - it won't matter because the media will not be favorable towards him. You can already see it today.

as if anyone gives a f@ck what the media thinks...

[XtremeJibber2001]

Trump won BIGLY!

George Will, Fox News Sunday:

"One third of the house Democrat caucus comes from only three states: New York, California, and Massachusetts. ... The Democrat party is in danger of becoming a regional party"

I'm sure there will be no shortage of Trump blunders and other Republican goofs to come along in the next 4 years, along with some strong Democrats that emerge. But still an interesting statement.

History, if it repeats itself, will see a gain in Democrat seats in 2018 to object to Trump's mistakes and controversial decisions, so this may be the low point of Democrat office holdings. If Trump fashions a popular replacement to Obamacare, bolsters border security and employment/economy improves, much less so.

Even if Trump governs as a populist and makes great improvements to ACA and restores manufacturing/jobs - it won't matter because the media will not be favorable towards him. You can already see it today.

as if anyone gives a f@ck what the media thinks...

You will care if the media positions Trump in a light which enables the Democrats to take over in 2018.

[brownman]

Give us Bannon.
We want Bannon.

[madhatter]

Trump won BIGLY!

George Will, Fox News Sunday:

"One third of the house Democrat caucus comes from only three states: New York, California, and Massachusetts. ... The Democrat party is in danger of becoming a regional party"

I'm sure there will be no shortage of Trump blunders and other Republican goofs to come along in the next 4 years, along with some strong Democrats that emerge. But still an interesting statement.

History, if it repeats itself, will see a gain in Democrat seats in 2018 to object to Trump's mistakes and controversial decisions, so this may be the low point of Democrat office holdings. If Trump fashions a popular replacement to Obamacare, bolsters border security and employment/economy improves, much less so.

Even if Trump governs as a populist and makes great improvements to ACA and restores manufacturing/jobs - it won't matter because the media will not be favorable towards him. You can already see it today.

as if anyone gives a f@ck what the media thinks...

You will care if the media positions Trump in a light which enables the Democrats to take over in 2018.ya mean like the way they got clinton elected?

the dems are defending 24 seats in 2018, the R's only 7 ( I've noted this elsewhere) the media couldn't push their candidate to an all but certain landslide victory this year when it was the R's defending a number of seats, not sure they really have much more they can use...The only ones listening to them hate trump already...I doubt more confirmation bias is going to do anything but shrink the bubblesphere...

[Mister Moose]

the dems are defending 24 seats in 2018, the R's only 7 ( I've noted this elsewhere) the media couldn't push their candidate to an all but certain landslide victory this year when it was the R's defending a number of seats, not sure they really have much more they can use...The only ones listening to them hate trump already...I doubt more confirmation bias is going to do anything but shrink the bubblesphere...

That's the Senate. How many seats are up in 2018 in the House?

[madhatter]

the dems are defending 24 seats in 2018, the R's only 7 ( I've noted this elsewhere) the media couldn't push their candidate to an all but certain landslide victory this year when it was the R's defending a number of seats, not sure they really have much more they can use...The only ones listening to them hate trump already...I doubt more confirmation bias is going to do anything but shrink the bubblesphere...

That's the Senate. How many seats are up in 2018 in the House?

ALL of em...just like very election...ya really think the house will go blue??? only if there's absolute disaster...I've already discussed all of this above...

barring any catastrophic failures legitimately attributable to trump, 2020 is the next opportunity for the D's, IF trump has even moderate success over the first 4 years fuggedaboutit...

[boston_e]

Madhatter is correct, the Senate is VERY unlikely to go blue in 2018 purely on the number of seats each side of the aisle is defending.

This year was the year for the Dem's to take back the senate and they certainly shot themselves in the foot by presenting one of the worst, if not the worst possible candidate ever and I'm sure that helped to drag them down.

In 2020 the Republicans are defending more seats than the D's are.

Control of congress has always swung back and forth like a pendulum. If 2018 is the year it swings back to blue will be largely dependent on how things go the next 2 years.

One other component of this that has not been mentioned is that the map of the districts currently favors the Republicans since most of the Governors were Republican the last time the districts were re-drawn, so there are a good number of gerrymandered districts which favors to keep them red, so the Democrats have that going against them for the next couple of cycles. Both sides do it, so if they want a better fighting chance, the Democrats better put some stronger candidates out for Governors as the next district redrawing gets closer.

Do the districts get redrawn every 10 years?

[madhatter]

Madhatter is correct, the Senate is VERY unlikely to go blue in 2018 purely on the number of seats each side of the aisle is defending.

This year was the year for the Dem's to take back the senate and they certainly shot themselves in the foot by presenting one of the worst, if not the worst possible candidate ever and I'm sure that helped to drag them down.

In 2020 the Republicans are defending more seats than the D's are.

Control of congress has always swung back and forth like a pendulum. If 2018 is the year it swings back to blue will be largely dependent on how things go the next 2 years.

One other component of this that has not been mentioned is that the map of the districts currently favors the Republicans since most of the Governors were Republican the last time the districts were re-drawn, so there are a good number of gerrymandered districts which favors to keep them red, so the Democrats have that going against them for the next couple of cycles. Both sides do it, so if they want a better fighting chance, the Democrats better put some stronger candidates out for Governors as the next district redrawing gets closer.

Do the districts get redrawn every 10 years?

yes every 10 years...2020 is the next time...the decisions are made at the state level...

limbaugh

The Democrat Party since 2010, the midterm elections in 2010, they lost 900 seats in that election in the House, in the Senate, go to governorships, mayors, town council, if you go all over the country, they got a shellacking. We now know that if Donald Trump had run for president in 2012 using the exact data he got versus what Obama got in 2012, Donald Trump would have beaten Obama in 2012, if you take the data from this election and measure it against what Obama had.
Hillary Clinton got six million fewer votes than Barack Obama in 2012. In 2014, the next set of midterms, the Democrats lost another 700 seats. The Democrat Party has been decimated. They have no bench. They don’t have anybody bringing up the rear in case Hillary lost. They have literally been shellacked. We have been governed by a minority against our will, and the illusion has been that they are the majority and gaining the majority and growing the majority.

right now there are 33 R governorship vs 15 D...

https://ballotpedia.org/Partisan_compos ... ate_houses" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

again barring absolute catastrophe, it's going to be a while before the D's have a chance to do much of anything as far as gaining a majority goes......

many of obama's fed level judges have not been confirmed...They won't be either....same w supreme court...

again obama was given the opportunity to be great, instead he greatly overplayed his hand and it will cost him and his party, bigly...

[madhatter]

2020 senate race breakdown

http://2020.state-election.info/senate/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

haven;t had time to analyze it but a quick glance shows a fair number of R's in "safe" states/seats...W/o a strong R rejection of trump or with any amount of support that propels trump to a second term it's gonna be a long time before the country is singing the blues again...Few seats will flip in either house if trump gets a second term...

as we saw this year the D's only had a chance to take the senate IF they put up a winning candidate for president...an opportunity made to be even stronger by the "fact" that the D's had ( imagined they had) a shoo in for a "third term" presidency...in contrast had the R's had the 2018 senate race in 2016 we'd be looking at a supermajority...


I don't see ANY chance of a blue revolution in governorships w the R's now holding 33 of them and having won 31 states in the electoral college...the downside to having all your constituents in a handful of states w huge city populations becomes apparent here...Most of flyover country is deep red, their state and local govts will remain red and their US representatives will also remain red...

are D's done? hahahah I doubt that, but just like the R's had to remake themselves in a populist manner, the D's will need to seek true diversity... not the pseudo diversity they have championed during the last 10+ years, but true inclusiveness...

otherwise we'll see another campaign w the same depth as the "vote for me I squat to pee" campaign HRC just ran...