Snowmaking/Operating Strategy Outlook - Ongoing Thread

[Highway Star]

They have guns on the headwall down about 100 yards past launch pad. 6 or 7 fans guns are going on lower Super. Strangely, the fixed fan gun is not going. Also, the fan gun on Mouse Trap is going! Snowing lightly.

As we go in to early November, you're going to see desperation snowmaking in 6 hour overnight windows on Superstar. They had better be going all out right now while they can. Given the current forecast, I give them about a 30% chance of making the WC event happen.

[machski]

you might be right HS, but I highly doubt that they were expecting to have a 2-foot base on Super Star by 11/1. That would've indicated an outlier of cold in October.

I will be curious as to how much snow is on the top third of Super Star after this cold snap. It should be on par with the production of North Ridge.

Long term does not look that good. Subtract 3f off these numbers for KBL base, and 6f for North Ridge / Top of Superstar:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/killin ... =11/1/2016" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Trust me, they are not planning based on an accuweather long range forecast.

[Highway Star]

you might be right HS, but I highly doubt that they were expecting to have a 2-foot base on Super Star by 11/1. That would've indicated an outlier of cold in October.

I will be curious as to how much snow is on the top third of Super Star after this cold snap. It should be on par with the production of North Ridge.

Long term does not look that good. Subtract 3f off these numbers for KBL base, and 6f for North Ridge / Top of Superstar:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/killin ... =11/1/2016" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Trust me, they are not planning based on an accuweather long range forecast.

You're right. It's more blind faith and seat of the pants.

Based on that forecast, I give them a 30% chance of making it happen. The trend shows about 3 degrees above normal for overnight temps. If that trend is correct, they are screwed.

[machski]

you might be right HS, but I highly doubt that they were expecting to have a 2-foot base on Super Star by 11/1. That would've indicated an outlier of cold in October.

I will be curious as to how much snow is on the top third of Super Star after this cold snap. It should be on par with the production of North Ridge.

Long term does not look that good. Subtract 3f off these numbers for KBL base, and 6f for North Ridge / Top of Superstar:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/killin ... =11/1/2016" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Trust me, they are not planning based on an accuweather long range forecast.

You're right. It's more blind faith and seat of the pants.

Based on that forecast, I give them a 30% chance of making it happen. The trend shows about 3 degrees above normal for overnight temps. If that trend is correct, they are screwed.

Seriously HS, AccuWeather beyond 7 days out is a guess as best I can tell. Last season when I'd look at their 7-14 forecasts, it always looked like things were going to turn around to hard core winter with good snow storms. Once those same long range guesses came into the 5 day range, they would start to veer into what we actually got last season. And this while many other outlets kept saying a continual warm winter last year. So I base nothing on those, fun to look at, that is about it. If I remember correctly, AccuWeather did not forecast this week's weather all too well 10-14 days ago. Many were saying we wouldn't be skiing in October this year. Ooopps.

[Highway Star]

you might be right HS, but I highly doubt that they were expecting to have a 2-foot base on Super Star by 11/1. That would've indicated an outlier of cold in October.

I will be curious as to how much snow is on the top third of Super Star after this cold snap. It should be on par with the production of North Ridge.

Long term does not look that good. Subtract 3f off these numbers for KBL base, and 6f for North Ridge / Top of Superstar:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/killin ... =11/1/2016" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Trust me, they are not planning based on an accuweather long range forecast.

You're right. It's more blind faith and seat of the pants.

Based on that forecast, I give them a 30% chance of making it happen. The trend shows about 3 degrees above normal for overnight temps. If that trend is correct, they are screwed.

Seriously HS, AccuWeather beyond 7 days out is a guess as best I can tell. Last season when I'd look at their 7-14 forecasts, it always looked like things were going to turn around to hard core winter with good snow storms. Once those same long range guesses came into the 5 day range, they would start to veer into what we actually got last season. And this while many other outlets kept saying a continual warm winter last year. So I base nothing on those, fun to look at, that is about it. If I remember correctly, AccuWeather did not forecast this week's weather all too well 10-14 days ago. Many were saying we wouldn't be skiing in October this year. Ooopps.

So, based on past performance, you're saying it's actually going to be warmer than they forecast? Ok then. I drop my chances of them pulling this off to 5%.

[SnoBrdr]

.

[snoloco]

Looks like they added Upper East Fall today. I'd think that GN is next to make the walk only one way. I could also see them opening Upper Double Dipper as well.

Earlier I read that the snowmaking currently happening at Superstar and that area is not affecting the opening in North Ridge, or the usual expansion via Snowdon to KBL.

[madhatter]

[RENO]

Looks like they added Upper East Fall today. I'd think that GN is next to make the walk only one way. I could also see them opening Upper Double Dipper as well.

Earlier I read that the snowmaking currently happening at Superstar and that area is not affecting the opening in North Ridge, or the usual expansion via Snowdon to KBL.

It would be pretty pathetic if it did with the size of K's snowmaking system!

[Highway Star]

Looks like they added Upper East Fall today. I'd think that GN is next to make the walk only one way. I could also see them opening Upper Double Dipper as well.

Earlier I read that the snowmaking currently happening at Superstar and that area is not affecting the opening in North Ridge, or the usual expansion via Snowdon to KBL.

I'd rather see them build base depths before expanding.

[Ragged#1]

Is Upper East Fall open? It says it's open with snowmaking on the website.

And I agree Upper Double Dipper would be a very easy, smart move to help spread the weekend crowds.

[machski]

Is Upper East Fall open? It says it's open with snowmaking on the website.

And I agree Upper Double Dipper would be a very easy, smart move to help spread the weekend crowds.

It was not as of 1240pm. Still could probably use today under the guns with no traffic but they may drop the rope before days end. Not sure.

[snoloco]

Looks like the Mouse Trap fan gun is going on the webcam. Could they be trying to push for t2b via Snowdon soon?

[madhatter]

Looks like the Mouse Trap fan gun is going on the webcam. Could they be trying to push for t2b via Snowdon soon?

as soon as possible for sure...

[rogman]

Unless mother nature really delivers on this storm, I don't see K attempting significant expansion until they get through this weekend's warmup. They'll continue to build the existing base. Even then, I expect expansion will be up top, eg GN down to the North Ridge chair, Upper Double Dipper, etc. I don't expect them to go for T2B until we see sustained cold weather, and what I'm seeing right now is only marginal conditions at night, and guns off during the day. Lower Bunny is tough: low elevation and SE exposure.