1. Your own data does not support your conclusion. Here's the data for the last few years: 2. Because those leases were already previously committed pre Biden. Biden's attempts to fight those leases also will not go unnoticed.Bubba wrote: ↑Dec 12th, '21, 22:50
I said you'd offer opinion to back up your contention; you don't even offer that. You offer questions. Want some facts?
1. US oil production has remained relatively constant this year compared with the past several years; ie no material change from the past several years. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... rfpus2&f=m
2. Much to the consternation of environmental groups, oil and gas leases issued by the Federal government are higher this year than in almost any year of the Trump administration. (I saw the info in an energy trade publication but haven't been able to find a link as of yet.)
3. The futures contract for crude oil settles at Cushing, OK and any production sold based on the NYMEX contract has a basis difference, plus or minus, tied to that contract. Oil produced in Texas, Oklahoma, etc. nets back a far higher price to the producer than oil produced in Alberta. The futures price is tied to world oil prices such as Brent, Saudi Light, etc. It's a world price, not simply a domestic price.
4. The Biden administration's efforts to push alternative energies such as solar, wind, etc. would, if effective, decrease demand for oil, thus pushing prices down. While this would theoretically reduce current investment in oil production, the actual numbers run counter to that thesis. Production is relatively constant and leasing appears to be up.
5. Cancellation of KeystoneXL is immaterial to current oil prices and current oil production. You may theorize about the future but the facts are the facts as far as today's gas and inflation numbers are concerned.
3. It's a world market. Got it. Short term fluctuations aside.
4. US Electricity sources are 61% fossil fuels, 20% nuclear. Non hydro renewables are about 13%. It's doubtful this small increase in renewables will insulate us from any instability in the world oil market.
5. You are focusing on effects on current prices. I'm not. That's what widen your view meant.