Inflation

[Mister Moose]

I said you'd offer opinion to back up your contention; you don't even offer that. You offer questions. Want some facts?

1. US oil production has remained relatively constant this year compared with the past several years; ie no material change from the past several years. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... rfpus2&f=m

2. Much to the consternation of environmental groups, oil and gas leases issued by the Federal government are higher this year than in almost any year of the Trump administration. (I saw the info in an energy trade publication but haven't been able to find a link as of yet.)

3. The futures contract for crude oil settles at Cushing, OK and any production sold based on the NYMEX contract has a basis difference, plus or minus, tied to that contract. Oil produced in Texas, Oklahoma, etc. nets back a far higher price to the producer than oil produced in Alberta. The futures price is tied to world oil prices such as Brent, Saudi Light, etc. It's a world price, not simply a domestic price.

4. The Biden administration's efforts to push alternative energies such as solar, wind, etc. would, if effective, decrease demand for oil, thus pushing prices down. While this would theoretically reduce current investment in oil production, the actual numbers run counter to that thesis. Production is relatively constant and leasing appears to be up.

5. Cancellation of KeystoneXL is immaterial to current oil prices and current oil production. You may theorize about the future but the facts are the facts as far as today's gas and inflation numbers are concerned.

1. Your own data does not support your conclusion. Here's the data for the last few years:

oil production.jpg (26.94 KiB) Viewed 700 times

2. Because those leases were already previously committed pre Biden. Biden's attempts to fight those leases also will not go unnoticed.
3. It's a world market. Got it. Short term fluctuations aside.
4. US Electricity sources are 61% fossil fuels, 20% nuclear. Non hydro renewables are about 13%. It's doubtful this small increase in renewables will insulate us from any instability in the world oil market.
5. You are focusing on effects on current prices. I'm not. That's what widen your view meant.

[deadheadskier]

Yet you won't assign a $$ figure. Nor will anyone else in this thread whining that Biden is to blame on gas prices.

[XtremeJibber2001]

Yet you won't assign a $$ figure. Nor will anyone else in this thread whining that Biden is to blame on gas prices.

Inflation & Gas Prices > Evidence of Coup Attempt ("Mark Meadows' PowerPoint proves Trump's failed coup was 'driven from the top.'" - Chris Christie)

[Bubba]

I said you'd offer opinion to back up your contention; you don't even offer that. You offer questions. Want some facts?

1. US oil production has remained relatively constant this year compared with the past several years; ie no material change from the past several years. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... rfpus2&f=m

2. Much to the consternation of environmental groups, oil and gas leases issued by the Federal government are higher this year than in almost any year of the Trump administration. (I saw the info in an energy trade publication but haven't been able to find a link as of yet.)

3. The futures contract for crude oil settles at Cushing, OK and any production sold based on the NYMEX contract has a basis difference, plus or minus, tied to that contract. Oil produced in Texas, Oklahoma, etc. nets back a far higher price to the producer than oil produced in Alberta. The futures price is tied to world oil prices such as Brent, Saudi Light, etc. It's a world price, not simply a domestic price.

4. The Biden administration's efforts to push alternative energies such as solar, wind, etc. would, if effective, decrease demand for oil, thus pushing prices down. While this would theoretically reduce current investment in oil production, the actual numbers run counter to that thesis. Production is relatively constant and leasing appears to be up.

5. Cancellation of KeystoneXL is immaterial to current oil prices and current oil production. You may theorize about the future but the facts are the facts as far as today's gas and inflation numbers are concerned.

1. Your own data does not support your conclusion. Here's the data for the last few years:
oil production.jpg Monthly production peaked prepandemic and cratered thereafter. Current domestic production is at 2018 levels, when prices were significantly lower. Not sure how you conclude that Biden production levels cause inflationary pressure while 2018 levels did not. And, even if US production has yet to recover to 2019 levels, our production level is still non-inflationary when taken alone.
2. Because those leases were already previously committed pre Biden. Biden's attempts to fight those leases also will not go unnoticed. Wrong. The argument from environmentalists is that these are NEW leases approved by the Biden administration.
3. It's a world market. Got it. Short term fluctuations aside. Thank you for agreeing that the price of oil in the US is driven by world markets, not US production.
4. US Electricity sources are 61% fossil fuels, 20% nuclear. Non hydro renewables are about 13%. It's doubtful this small increase in renewables will insulate us from any instability in the world oil market.vVery true, thus the Biden administration's efforts to boost renewables is having NO impact on oil markets. This is, of course, supported by all of the above
5. You are focusing on effects on current prices. I'm not. That's what widen your view meant. In other words, you don't want to focus on the issue at hand - blaming the Biden administration for current gasoline price inflation.

[easyrider16]

1. Your own data does not support your conclusion. Here's the data for the last few years:
oil production.jpg

What conclusion exactly are you drawing from these numbers? Because it looks to me that production started to flatten in 2019, then dropped in 2020 significantly, obviously due to the pandemnic. Then production has since started turning up again. How does this support a conclusion that Biden's policies are to blame for high gas prices? Is it not pretty obvious that it's not just like turning on a spigot, and that it would take time to ramp up production to pre-pandemic levels? Is it also not clear from the data that production has been on the increase since Biden took office?

It also strikes me that there was a huge increase in production levels from 2012-2015 when there was a guy in the White House who was not exactly friendly to big oil. This to me again suggests that oil production and oil prices are driven far more by market forces than by White House policy.

Here's a fun fact check article that basically makes the same point:

Presidents — regardless of party — tend to take credit for good things that happen under their watch, regardless of how much influence their actions may have had. Exhibit A: Former President Barack Obama said the fact that the United States is now the world’s biggest oil producer didn’t happen “suddenly.” Instead, “that was me, people.”

Crude oil production did grow significantly during Obama’s presidency — up 77 percent — but experts, including the federal government’s Energy Information Administration, have said the growth is largely due to technological advances, such as fracking and horizontal drilling.

We said the same thing when President Donald Trump tried to take credit for the U.S. this year overtaking Russia as the No. 1 crude oil producer.

https://www.factcheck.org/2018/11/obama ... oil-boast/

[Coydog]

Demand drops, production decreases to match demand, but it lags, so more supply than demand for awhile and prices drop.

Demand increases, production increases to match demand, but it lags, so more demand than supply for awhile and prices increase.

Has little to do with Biden/Trump/Keystone XL. By the time mid terms roll around, production will probably closely match demand and the Brandoneers will have one less imaginary thing to whine about.

And no matter how you cut it, Keystone XL would represent less than 1% of the world's daily consumption - hard to imagine how that would be any kind of meaningful stabilizing factor for production.

[Bigjohnski]

Biden gasflation saving a bigly 06 cents per gallon wow!!!!

add that savings on the 16 cent for the fourth of July Boy Howdy Biden is killing it !!!!

[Mister Moose]

1. Your own data does not support your conclusion. Here's the data for the last few years:
oil production.jpg Monthly production peaked prepandemic and cratered thereafter. Current domestic production is at 2018 levels, when prices were significantly lower. Not sure how you conclude that Biden production levels cause inflationary pressure while 2018 levels did not. And, even if US production has yet to recover to 2019 levels, our production level is still non-inflationary when taken alone.
All I stated here was that production was not constant as you stated.
2. Because those leases were already previously committed pre Biden. Biden's attempts to fight those leases also will not go unnoticed. Wrong. The argument from environmentalists is that these are NEW leases approved by the Biden administration.
I'm talking about the mid June ruling on Biden's attempt to impose a moratorium. I now see the mid November lease sale, which to say the least, is interesting. "The lease sale is a major reversal of Biden’s commitment to shut down new oil and natural gas leases on public lands and waters" - CNBC

5. You are focusing on effects on current prices. I'm not. That's what widen your view meant. In other words, you don't want to focus on the issue at hand - blaming the Biden administration for current gasoline price inflation.

Correct. I'm looking beyond the pennies the rest of you insist on focusing on and discussing the future effect of Biden's policies, of which the pipeline is an indicator.

[Fancypants]

1. Your own data does not support your conclusion. Here's the data for the last few years:
oil production.jpg Monthly production peaked prepandemic and cratered thereafter. Current domestic production is at 2018 levels, when prices were significantly lower. Not sure how you conclude that Biden production levels cause inflationary pressure while 2018 levels did not. And, even if US production has yet to recover to 2019 levels, our production level is still non-inflationary when taken alone.
All I stated here was that production was not constant as you stated.
2. Because those leases were already previously committed pre Biden. Biden's attempts to fight those leases also will not go unnoticed. Wrong. The argument from environmentalists is that these are NEW leases approved by the Biden administration.
I'm talking about the mid June ruling on Biden's attempt to impose a moratorium. I now see the mid November lease sale, which to say the least, is interesting. "The lease sale is a major reversal of Biden’s commitment to shut down new oil and natural gas leases on public lands and waters" - CNBC

5. You are focusing on effects on current prices. I'm not. That's what widen your view meant. In other words, you don't want to focus on the issue at hand - blaming the Biden administration for current gasoline price inflation.

Correct. I'm looking beyond the pennies the rest of you insist on focusing on and discussing the future effect of Biden's policies, of which the pipeline is an indicator.

It goes well beyond all of this. The US was the worlds leading energy producer prior to the entry of the Biden administration and their misaligned and misguided policies related to energy. We finally had control/influence and possible leverage/solutions to many of the complex State Department related issues that have faced our country for 50+ years but Brandon threw it all away due to the influence of a bunch of whinny narcissistic progressive snowflakes. It's always better set your own path rather have it guided by others.

[Fancypants]

[Coydog]

It goes well beyond all of this. The US was the worlds leading energy producer prior to the entry of the Biden administration and their misaligned and misguided policies related to energy.

Here we see China overtaking the US in total energy production sometime around 2005, presumably at the beginning of the Biden administration.

[Bigjohnski]

Notice in 2017- 2019 we start to catch back up.


Biden screwed this up too

[easyrider16]

It goes well beyond all of this. The US was the worlds leading energy producer prior to the entry of the Biden administration and their misaligned and misguided policies related to energy. We finally had control/influence and possible leverage/solutions to many of the complex State Department related issues that have faced our country for 50+ years but Brandon threw it all away due to the influence of a bunch of whinny narcissistic progressive snowflakes. It's always better set your own path rather have it guided by others.

This sounds very generalized and politically slanted, almost like a set of right-wing talking points. Can you describe which policies you're talking about that you think were misguided? Can you specify what leverage/solutions we "finally" had control/influence over? Can you articulate how "Brandon threw it all away"?

[Bigjohnski]

look it up yourself easyrider its called the internet


do your own investigations please but here is a little help oh clueless one
Democrats have a war on Fossil fuels.

He cancelled the Keystone XL pipeline and suspended oil and gas leases on federal land the first week he was in office. Right now the administration is exploring how to shut down a key pipeline that runs from Canada to Michigan which carries over 500,000 barrels of crude oil per day. Along with the morons in Congress, he is sending signals that his administration will continue to raise costs on oil producers.

The $5 trillion giveaway the Democrats are trying to pass includes provisions to end the oil depletion allowance, which gives tax breaks to producers as the oil reserves in the ground are pumped. The asset is reduced in value, and therefore taxes on the remaining oil in the ground decrease. The ODA has been in place since the 1930s The legislation also seeks to disallow certain expenses on drilling operations, which are a cost of goods sold. COGS tax deductions are a normal accounting function of business that have been in place for decades. The Democrat's legislation will end the deduction for drilling costs as a punitive measure to make petroleum energy uncompetitive with solar and wind.


Enjoy the Bidenflation

[easyrider16]

I can't very well look up Fancy's opinion on the internet. That's what I was asking for. But since you offered something of real substance for once, I will respond.

He cancelled the Keystone XL pipeline and suspended oil and gas leases on federal land the first week he was in office.

As per the discussion above, the pipeline never existed and was unlikely to have any major affect on oil prices even after completion.

Right now the administration is exploring how to shut down a key pipeline that runs from Canada to Michigan which carries over 500,000 barrels of crude oil per day. Along with the morons in Congress, he is sending signals that his administration will continue to raise costs on oil producers.

I looked it up on the internet. This is not the Biden administration, it is the governor of the state of Michigan looking to shut down the pipeline (primarily for NIMBY reasons, it seems). In any case, 500k barrels per day is about 0.5% of world oil consumption per day so I doubt this will have much impact one way or the other on prices. See again the above discussion re the Keystone pipeline.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 021-05-11/

The $5 trillion giveaway the Democrats are trying to pass includes provisions to end the oil depletion allowance, which gives tax breaks to producers as the oil reserves in the ground are pumped. The asset is reduced in value, and therefore taxes on the remaining oil in the ground decrease. The ODA has been in place since the 1930s

There is a criticism of this in that it allows a write off that is often larger than the underlying asset, and therefore this functions like a subsidy. Why should we subsidize big oil? They shouldn't need government help to be profitable and if they do, they shouldn't be in business. #FreeMarket.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_depletion_allowance

The legislation also seeks to disallow certain expenses on drilling operations, which are a cost of goods sold. COGS tax deductions are a normal accounting function of business that have been in place for decades. The Democrat's legislation will end the deduction for drilling costs as a punitive measure to make petroleum energy uncompetitive with solar and wind.

Okay, I disagree with this one. Punitive measures against businesses are the wrong way to deal with this issue. I am also generally opposed to the $5 trillion Biden build plan, as I've said many times. I am prepared to agree with any criticism of the Biden administration's handling of this issue, as I'm no Biden fan, but I like my criticisms to be grounded in fact. And legislation that hasn't yet been passed (and seems unlikely to be) can't really have much influence on current oil prices.

Enjoy the Bidenflation

You still have yet to establish how price increases are related to Biden's policies. Let me help. I think the stimulus package that Biden signed providing more direct stimulus was a mistake that contributed to inflation. Trump signed too many big stimulus packages, so he's to blame as well. I think we can also cite the Fed as underestimating inflationary pressures and failing to take some steps sooner.