Ukraine / Russia

[easyrider16]

From the New York Times this morning, analyzing long-term consequences of Trump's bungling foreign policy which have contributed to today's crisis. It also provides some insight into why Biden removed sanctions on companies working on Nord Stream 2. As I've said before, foreign policy decisions often have consequences that reach far beyond the President's term, and Trump made a lot of foreign policy mistakes that did not seem to hurt him much while in office, but have long term consequences that his successors will have to deal with.

Germany, apart
Donald Trump has made a habit of deriding the U.S. alliance with Western Europe. He described NATO — the American-led alliance with Europe that dates to the 1940s — as “obsolete” and said that Americans were “schmucks” for financing it. He mused about withdrawing the U.S. from NATO and often spoke more positively about Russia than about longtime American allies like Germany and France.

These comments were a radical departure from the policies of every U.S. president, Republican and Democrat, for 75 years. Still, because Trump did not make good on his biggest threats, the tangible effects were not always clear.

Now they are becoming clearer.

Russia has massed about 125,000 troops on its border with Ukraine, threatening an invasion that would be the most substantial ground war in Europe since the end of World War II. To prevent that, President Biden, Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain and several other leaders are trying to present a unified front and tell Russia that it would suffer severe economic consequences. But one crucial country is missing from that united front: Germany.

As Katrin Bennhold, The Times’s Berlin bureau chief, writes:

Denmark is sending fighter jets to Lithuania and a frigate to the Baltic Sea. France has offered to send troops to Romania. Spain is sending a frigate to the Black Sea. President Biden has put thousands of U.S. troops on “high alert.”

And then there is Germany. In recent days Germany — Europe’s largest and richest democracy, strategically situated at the crossroads between East and West — has stood out more for what it will not do than for what it is doing.

Germany’s government, under its new chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has ruled out any arms exports to Ukraine. It is also delaying a shipment of howitzers from Estonia to Ukraine. It may have kept British planes from using German airspace when sending military supplies to Ukraine last week.

Most significantly, the Scholz government has been vague about whether a Russian invasion would lead to the shutdown of an undersea gas pipeline between Germany and Russia. The pipeline, the Nord Stream 2, will become a major source of energy for Germany and a major source of revenue for Russia once it begins operating, likely in the next year. Scholz recently described Nord Stream 2 as a “private-sector project.”


Pipes for Nord Stream 2 in Germany.Jens Buettner/DPA, via Associated Press
Trumpism in action
The pipeline’s history highlights the long-term consequences of Trump’s hostility to Europe. For years, many U.S. officials opposed Nord Stream 2, understanding that it would solidify ties between Germany and Russia. It is also likely to damage Ukraine’s economy; much of Russia’s natural gas has flowed through Ukraine, which receives fees in exchange.

But Trump showed little interest in building a good relationship with Germany as a way to persuade it to abandon the pipeline. He instead criticized America’s longtime allies in Europe — and treated Russian President Vladimir Putin warmly.

Trump’s hostility to Western Europe, in turn, encouraged Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor at the time, to ponder a future in which the U.S. might be pulling back from NATO. In that scenario, friendly relations with Russia (and China, too) would have advantages, especially because of its importance to European energy supplies.

“By the time Biden took office, the pipeline was nearly complete,” said my colleague Michael Crowley, who covered Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s trip to Germany last week. “Biden calculated that restoring relations with Berlin after the Trump era was far too important to risk with a last-ditch and potentially futile effort to stop the project.”

Instead, Biden waived sanctions — which Congress established starting in 2017 — on companies that worked on the pipeline. It was too late to prevent completion, he decided.

Trump’s European policy is hardly the only reason that the pipeline exists. Discussions about it began before he was president, reflecting decades of close ties between Germany and Russia, as Katrin notes. But Trump’s foreign policy diminished American influence in Europe — and, if anything, sent signals that the U.S. favored closer ties between Russia and Western Europe.

Leaders across much of Eastern Europe are not happy about these developments. Ukraine’s foreign minister has accused Berlin of effectively “encouraging” Russian aggression. A senior Lithuanian official said that Germany was “making a big strategic mistake and putting its reputation at risk.”

Putin, on the other hand, seems thrilled. He has embarked on a campaign to weaken democracies and strengthen autocracies, both in his own region (as in Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus) and elsewhere (through election misinformation campaigns in the U.S. and Western Europe). Despite this aggression, NATO is not unified in confronting him, giving Putin more leeway to act as he chooses.

“He well recognizes that Europe’s main power base is France, Germany and Britain,” Tobias Ellwood, a member of Britain’s Parliament who helps set military policy, told The Washington Post. “If these three countries are united, the rest of Europe follows. If you can sow divisions among these three, then there’s no leadership, there’s no coordination and there’s no unity.”

The divisions even extend to internal U.S. politics. This week, Tom Malinowski, a Democrat who represents New Jersey in the House, tweeted: “My office is now getting calls from folks who say they watch Tucker Carlson and are upset that we’re not siding with Russia in its threats to invade Ukraine, and who want me to support Russia’s ‘reasonable’ positions.”

It’s still possible that Germany will do more to discourage an invasion than it has so far. Scholz said recently that Russia would suffer “high costs” if it invades. Yet Putin is savvy enough to understand the difference between a unified, clear European effort to prevent an invasion and a muddled one. Germany has chosen a muddle so far.

It’s a sign that Trump has succeeded at one of his foreign-policy goals: creating distance between the U.S. and at least some parts of NATO.

[daytripper]

Was Trump president in 2014? Seems Russia could care less about all that.

[throbster]

TLDR.

You're out of you mind if you think Putin would be doing this with Trump in office.

The Afghan withdrawal emboldened our enemies.

Now sleepy is concerned about the Ukrainian border while ignoring our southern border. How many enemies of the USA have crossed the border? 100,000 drug overdose deaths last year and fentanyl keeps pouring in. Wake up.

[easyrider16]

You're out of you mind if you think Putin would be doing this with Trump in office.

On the contrary, I think Putin is doing this because Trump is no longer in office. I think the Ukraine build up is a distraction to avoid further sanctions. With Trump in office, Putin didn't need to do things like this because he could trust Trump to be a distraction and tacitly allow Putin to do whatever he wanted. But let's not pretend that Trump had a coherent foreign policy that deterred Putin. That's laughable. I mean just look at how our own intelligence agencies reported that Putin tried to influence the U.S. election in Trump's favor in 2016 and 2020. Does that sound like someone who was deterred to you?

Nvalany, the Russian dissident and Putin's political opponent, had a nice analysis of the situation criticizing the west for falling into Putin's trap.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/01/ ... ine-a76085

As to the Afghan withdrawal, it's funny you bring that up, since Trump was its architect. It was another mess that Biden had to clean up. He screwed it up, sure, but that doesn't make what Trump did the right move.

[easyrider16]

Was Trump president in 2014? Seems Russia could care less about all that.

I'm not sure what you're referring to in 2014 or what Russia could care less about?

[daytripper]

Was Trump president in 2014? Seems Russia could care less about all that.

I'm not sure what you're referring to in 2014 or what Russia could care less about?

Crimea, this Ukraine sh*t didn't start recently.

[easyrider16]

Crimea, this Ukraine sh*t didn't start recently.

No kidding. I'm not sure what your point is. Russia, NATO, and Ukraine have been tied together as a foreign policy problem for a long time now. Just about everything Russia does in Ukraine has to do with its relationship to the West and to NATO. It's something every U.S. president has had to deal with since the cold war ended. Shouldn't we analyze how our Presidents have handled this situation?

And I'm still not clear on what you think Russia could care less about?

[daytripper]

How do u blame Trump for the current Ukraine situation when it started with Obama in office? What did Obama do when Russia stole Crimea? Grasping at straws here.

[easyrider16]

How do u blame Trump for the current Ukraine situation when it started with Obama in office? What did Obama do when Russia stole Crimea? Grasping at straws here.

I think that's an oversimplification of my position. I don't blame Trump for the current Ukraine situation. I blame him for making foreign policy mistakes that contributed to the problem (see the first sentence of my original post). One of those mistakes was weakening relations with European powers. Again, we should be judging our leaders on the decisions they make and their outcomes. Trump's decisions have led to a sh!tty outcome here. Biden's not doing much better, but I think it's important to acknowledge the sh!tty hand he was dealt by his predecessor.

[throbster]

Sleepy lifted restrictions on the Nord Stream pipeline. Who benefitted?

Russia, Russia, Russia!!!

[daytripper]

Well if that's the case then Obama emboldened Putin with his response to the annexation of Crimea and Trump was dealt a shitty hand by his predecessor.

[easyrider16]

Well if that's the case then Obama emboldened Putin with his response to the annexation of Crimea and Trump was dealt a shitty hand by his predecessor.

I think not. Obama imposed sanctions, and got Europe to do the same. Before you claim that these sanctions did nothing, maybe read this analysis of the impact of those sanctions:
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-dept ... on-russia/

The TLDR conclusion is that the sanctions probably deterred further expansion into Ukraine by Putin. That's a pretty decent outcome considering nobody wanted to go to war with Russia. The article also highlights the fact that Trump weakened the Euorpean coordination over these sanctions, making it harder to keep the pressure on Russia (and probably contributing to the current mess).

If you read the Navalny analysis I linked to above, he contends that this entire Ukraine situation is an attempt by Russia to get U.S. and Europe to ease sanctions. If that analysis is correct, then it suggests Putin cares about these sanctions very much.

[XtremeJibber2001]

Well if that's the case then Obama emboldened Putin with his response to the annexation of Crimea and Trump was dealt a shitty hand by his predecessor.

I think not. Obama imposed sanctions, and got Europe to do the same. Before you claim that these sanctions did nothing, maybe read this analysis of the impact of those sanctions:
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-dept ... on-russia/

The TLDR conclusion is that the sanctions probably deterred further expansion into Ukraine by Putin. That's a pretty decent outcome considering nobody wanted to go to war with Russia. The article also highlights the fact that Trump weakened the Euorpean coordination over these sanctions, making it harder to keep the pressure on Russia (and probably contributing to the current mess).

If you read the Navalny analysis I linked to above, he contends that this entire Ukraine situation is an attempt by Russia to get U.S. and Europe to ease sanctions. If that analysis is correct, then it suggests Putin cares about these sanctions very much.

I think you have to accept there is no acceptable solution for Republicans.

Biden could bomb Russia - GOP would say Biden has lost his mind.
Biden could punish Russia economically - GOP would say Biden is weak
Biden could support Ukraine with arms and vehicles - GOP would ask why Biden is supporting Ukraine
Biden could stay out of it fully - GOP would say Biden supports Russia and point out Nord Stream

Like I posed to Mister Moose last week - has the GOP grown more or less supportive of Russia? I think the answer is clear.

[easyrider16]

There are some corners of the right-wing that are calling for the U.S. to take Russia's side over Ukraine's side. See e.g. Tucker Carlson. This position is so absurd it would hardly be worth a mention but for the fact that a significant portion of the public seem to be buying into it.

[daytripper]

Well if that's the case then Obama emboldened Putin with his response to the annexation of Crimea and Trump was dealt a shitty hand by his predecessor.

I think not. Obama imposed sanctions, and got Europe to do the same. Before you claim that these sanctions did nothing, maybe read this analysis of the impact of those sanctions:
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-dept ... on-russia/

The TLDR conclusion is that the sanctions probably deterred further expansion into Ukraine by Putin. That's a pretty decent outcome considering nobody wanted to go to war with Russia. The article also highlights the fact that Trump weakened the Euorpean coordination over these sanctions, making it harder to keep the pressure on Russia (and probably contributing to the current mess).

If you read the Navalny analysis I linked to above, he contends that this entire Ukraine situation is an attempt by Russia to get U.S. and Europe to ease sanctions. If that analysis is correct, then it suggests Putin cares about these sanctions very much.

I think you have to accept there is no acceptable solution for Republicans.

Biden could bomb Russia - GOP would say Biden has lost his mind.
Biden could punish Russia economically - GOP would say Biden is weak
Biden could support Ukraine with arms and vehicles - GOP would ask why Biden is supporting Ukraine
Biden could stay out of it fully - GOP would say Biden supports Russia and point out Nord Stream

Like I posed to Mister Moose last week - has the GOP grown more or less supportive of Russia? I think the answer is clear.

I'm just saying Putin is going to do what he is going to do and who the president of the US is makes no difference. History is pretty clear on this.