2024 Election

[XtremeJibber2001]

Bloomberg this morning suggesting Trump is edging ahead in swing state polls with more of the electorate saying the border is their biggest concern. The theory is that the economy is improving so people aren't as concerned with that, but nobody's really crediting Biden for it. They blame Biden for the border but don't seem to care yet that Biden has agreed to sign a border deal that Trump is trying to kill. Maybe things might change once it becomes clear that Trump torpedoed that deal. I doubt it though, because IMHO the electorate decides on feelings not logic, and Trump is better at framing his issues to stoke feelings.

On the other hand, WaPo seems to think GenZ is going to vote more in this election than past generations, and that's going to shift the vote. I tend to doubt it but it bears watching.

I am skeptical of the polling we're seeing for Trump. Almost all polls I've seen show Trump ahead within the margin of error or greater, which doesn't pass the smell test for me.

In 2020, polls overstated Biden's lead over Trump. Have adjustments to polling methods resulted in overstating Trump's lead?

[easyrider16]

NYT report demonstrates that Biden is actually making progress on the border. Will anyone on the right care? Probably not, because they will probably never hear about it. Trump will continue to lie about it and his people will believe him.

On the Thursday before Christmas, President Biden called Mexico’s president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and asked for help. The number of migrants crossing into the U.S. — about 10,000 per day — had reached the highest level of Biden’s presidency. The surge was creating major problems, including lockdowns at a New Mexico high school where migrants were streaming across the grounds and the closure of a rail bridge over the Rio Grande that carried commercial goods.

López Obrador responded by telling Biden to send a delegation of top officials to visit him in Mexico City. The next week, that delegation, led by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, arrived for talks. Partly in response, Mexico soon began to enforce its own immigration laws more strictly, making it harder for migrants from other countries to use Mexico as a route to the U.S. Among other things, López Obrador’s government has increased deportations of migrants to their home countries and disrupted bus networks run by cartels that funnel migrants from other countries toward the U.S. border.

The crackdown has made a noticeable difference, too.

Migration flows at the U.S.-Mexico border fell more than 50 percent in early January, according to data that the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency released last week. The numbers have since risen somewhat, officials have told me, but are still well below the December levels.

[Low Rider]

NYT report demonstrates that Biden is actually making progress on the border. Will anyone on the right care? Probably not, because they will probably never hear about it. Trump will continue to lie about it and his people will believe him.

On the Thursday before Christmas, President Biden called Mexico’s president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and asked for help. The number of migrants crossing into the U.S. — about 10,000 per day — had reached the highest level of Biden’s presidency. The surge was creating major problems, including lockdowns at a New Mexico high school where migrants were streaming across the grounds and the closure of a rail bridge over the Rio Grande that carried commercial goods.

López Obrador responded by telling Biden to send a delegation of top officials to visit him in Mexico City. The next week, that delegation, led by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, arrived for talks. Partly in response, Mexico soon began to enforce its own immigration laws more strictly, making it harder for migrants from other countries to use Mexico as a route to the U.S. Among other things, López Obrador’s government has increased deportations of migrants to their home countries and disrupted bus networks run by cartels that funnel migrants from other countries toward the U.S. border.

The crackdown has made a noticeable difference, too.

Migration flows at the U.S.-Mexico border fell more than 50 percent in early January, according to data that the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency released last week. The numbers have since risen somewhat, officials have told me, but are still well below the December levels.

A high percentage of Trump supporters wouldn’t even be able to read and comprehend that passage.

[easyrider16]

I am sure any Trump supporter reading this saw the "NYT" and stopped reading - they are so brainwashed that they refuse to even look at anything that is not approved content by their dear leader.

[deadheadskier]

So, the saying goes "It's the economy stupid"

Why on earth would anyone want to change directions now based upon the economy?

The only blemish really is housing affordability and availability . Has the challenging party offered any solutions there?

Nope

[easyrider16]

Seems to me that people who support Trump have a few major issues - the economy, the border, and oil/gas prices. It also seems to me that if you care about results, Biden has done a better job on each of these issues than Trump did in his four years. These are undisputable facts: The economy today is better than when Trump left office. Biden has been making progress on the border and is supporting the bipartisan bill, while Trump failed to get his wall. U.S. oil production is higher than it has ever been under Trump.

In short, Biden has done a better job achieving Trump's agenda than Trump did. So why would people vote for Trump? I can think of only two reasons:

• most MAGA folks don't live in the real world and don't acknowledge the above facts

• pure political animus, i.e. "own the libs"

I think political animus is the biggest reason people vote MAGA right now.

[Low Rider]

I think political animus is the biggest reason people vote MAGA right now.

- Political Animus
- There is a component voting on racism/Homophobia/etc (Perhaps this falls under above Animus)
- Anti choice

[easyrider16]

The evangelicals LOVE Trump. It's all virtue signaling - being against abortion and homosexuals is what turns them on the most even though those things have zero affect on their life and nothing to do with their commission from Christ to preach the gospel and do unto others. If they actually read their book, they'd see that Christ says nothing about abortion or homosexuals, and that Trump has more in common with the anti-christ than with Christ.

[XtremeJibber2001]

Big day today for SCOTUS. Will they uphold Colorado and the rule of law or bend to the rule of the mob as the governing order of America?

[Low Rider]

The evangelicals LOVE Trump. It's all virtue signaling - being against abortion and homosexuals is what turns them on the most even though those things have zero affect on their life and nothing to do with their commission from Christ to preach the gospel and do unto others. If they actually read their book, they'd see that Christ says nothing about abortion or homosexuals, and that Trump has more in common with the anti-christ than with Christ.

Don't worry though, their representative's mistress will always have access to safe and free abortion care.

[easyrider16]

Don't worry though, their representative's mistress will always have access to safe and free abortion care.

I grew up in an Evangelical church. Believe me, they are no stranger to double standards and appearances for appearance sake. To be honest, I think most in that group care more about superficial virtues than about being like Christ. When I was there, people would jump all over others for things like swearing, drinking alcohol, smoking, and consensual premarital sex. They were big on showing up for church each Sunday and tithing regularly. What they were not big on was being nice to one another, loving and accepting outsiders, and practicing what they preached when no one was looking.

Now that I think about it, it really shouldn't surprise me that evangelicals are so comfortable with Trump. He's like a lot of them - saying one set of things publicly then doing something entirely different in private. Evangelicals are particularly good at rationalizing that type of behavior because they've been doing it for centuries.

[Dickc]

Well, the justice department ripped Biden a new one. Calling him a forgetful old man. I think we all know Biden has lost whatever fastball he ever had, I sure do not want to see him get a second term, but what will my choice be? Most likely him or Trump. Can you say rock and hard place? Hailey may not be the best one running, but I’d take her as president over either of those two losers. What is the other choice, RFK Jr, the anti vaxer?

We have close to if not 350 million people in this country and this is the best we can do?? God help us.

[Stormchaser]

Well, the justice department ripped Biden a new one. Calling him a forgetful old man. I think we all know Biden has lost whatever fastball he ever had, I sure do not want to see him get a second term, but what will my choice be? Most likely him or Trump. Can you say rock and hard place? Hailey may not be the best one running, but I’d take her as president over either of those two losers. What is the other choice, RFK Jr, the anti vaxer?

We have close to if not 350 million people in this country and this is the best we can do?? God help us.

Dickc for President!

[Low Rider]

Well, the justice department ripped Biden a new one. Calling him a forgetful old man. I think we all know Biden has lost whatever fastball he ever had, I sure do not want to see him get a second term, but what will my choice be? Most likely him or Trump. Can you say rock and hard place? Hailey may not be the best one running, but I’d take her as president over either of those two losers. What is the other choice, RFK Jr, the anti vaxer?

We have close to if not 350 million people in this country and this is the best we can do?? God help us.

It is not surprising that an original Trump appointee would fire a few negative shots once he determined there was nothing Biden could be charged with.

While i would have preferred two different candidates, it looks like it will come down to Biden/Trump, and Biden is the clear and obvious choice. He perhaps has lost a little bit off his fastball but the idea that he is an absent-minded old man is a ridiculous picture trying to be painted by Fox news and their ilk. Don't forget that Biden has never been a particularly good public speaker and has always been a gaffe machine.

Biden has provided:
- Stable Leadership
- Infrastructure
- Chips Act
- Veterans Bill
- Record Low unemployment
- Gas / Oil production up
- Stock Market high

Now add to that that he is actually the one who actually supported doing something about the border and immigration problems we are facing instead of yelling about a wall that will never happen that Mexico will never pay for. Republicans have shown that they only want the border to remain a problem so they have a wedge issue.

Lastly, Biden will prove to be on the right side of history when it comes to social issues such as women's reproductive care etc etc.

The choice is pretty obvious.

[easyrider16]

Not fond of Biden but it's hard to argue with most of his policy implementation right now. He may come across as a bozo but his administration is working better than Trump's ever did. Low Rider credits him with more than I would as I don't think he's responsible for the stock market, gas/oil or low unemployment, but he should get credit for Chips act, infrastructure bill, veterans bill, and stable leadership. He's also much more moderate than many the Dems could put forward. He sometimes talks lefty but his policies are mostly centrist.

I agree though that we should have better candidates. These two choices both suck, but one clearly sucks more.