Wednesday - 1/24/24 More Lift Issues

[my poor knees]

Been coming here regularly for years and there's no doubt, the skyship is breaking down at a high rate this year. So are a few others. Nothing else to add.

[Big Bob]

These are old lifts. Now, I'm no lift mechanic, but I'm all too familiar with the problems of keeping obsolete stuff working, and lifts that are close to 30 years old like Skyeship and Needles fall in that category. Don't fall into the trap of thinking they'll last 40 years no problem. That's not how it works.

I don't know whats wrong with Needles, but lifts are fairly exposed to the elements and its pretty easy for them to get hit with lightning, static discharge, or any of a thousand random failures. Suppose it takes out an analog to digital converter chip. Not unlikely, those chips are typically connected to both analog and digital grounds. Little ground bounce due to this discharge, and they fry. Not a big deal, just replace it with another one. Well sh*t. That part was designed in some 30 years ago and is no longer made. Something new faster and fancier has replaced it. Different pinout, different design. Now, often these obsolete chips can still be obtained for a while from 3rd party sources. As they get scarcer, they become pricier. Eventually, they're not available for love or money. So you can't repair the board, and all the spare boards in stock are busted too, and you can't even take parts from two to make one working board. You have just entered a world of pain.

So the decision is made to redesign the board with up to date parts. Turns out there's seven other chips on it that obsolete too, might as well replace those too. So the EE designs a new board, its fabbed, and you load on the existing firmware and of course it doesn't work. The software was written for the old board, with the old chips. They need different code. Where is the original source code? Well, it was a Poma design, before it was merged with LP. Where is it. Stan's got it, unfortunately he retired 15 years ago. Is he dead? What happened to his "stuff". Eventually they find it in an unmarked box on a 5 1/4" floppy. They even find the compiler. Okay, so now they have to find a computer with a 5 1/4" floppy to load everything. Of course it needs a different operating system. Something called MS-DOS. Or maybe its CPM. IDK. Okay, so eventually they get a computer, the disks, the tools all working. The processor is a Z80, and its written in assembly. Anybody on staff know that? Of course not. Is Stan interested of doing the work? Anyway, its six month later, and there's still no working part.

And this is why you have to upgrade stuff periodically.

The drive was supposed to be replaced last summer, maybe a random flood stopped Killington from getting that done, or they just said F*ck it, we can push it off to next summer. It will be fine.

[rogman]

That was an expensive flood, both in time and attention. No doubt a lot of planned action items got deferred.

[Captain Hafski]

My apologies SPORE - In the other "01/24" thread, I called you out for not including the year in this one. My bad !

[KingsFourMan]

Killington has long been a deferred maintenance nightmare with a long list of pressing needs. Less is more Otten and his disastrous American Skiing Company set Killington back at least 2 decades when he drove it into the ground.

The new village will resolve 2 major items on the list when it replaces the Rams Head and Snowshed base lodges with one combined lodge. Both of those lodges are a least 20-25 years overdue for the wrecking ball. That still leaves the Bear Mountain lodge which is long overdue for a facelift as well.

The list of antiquated lifts is long with the Skyship, Needles Eye, and Rams Head lifts being especially in need of replacement or overhaul.

So, they have a new major lodge to pay for, one major lodge renovation, and at least 3 major lifts. Guessing that the new lodges (village and bear) are about $75-$100M and the 3 new lifts are $20-$25M so $95-$125M in immediate pressing needs. And then there is the snowmaking system with its frequent blowouts that has obvious needs, and anything else associated with the village that they have to pay for like the ski bridge between RH and Snowshed which they are probably on the hook for as well as at least some of the new employee housing.

Any way you slice it, they've got $100-$150M plus in immediate pressing needs. That is a lot of $16 beers.

[jimmywilson69]

Mike should be playing the powerball...

[wtf021]

Killington has long been a deferred maintenance nightmare with a long list of pressing needs. Less is more Otten and his disastrous American Skiing Company set Killington back at least 2 decades when he drove it into the ground.

The new village will resolve 2 major items on the list when it replaces the Rams Head and Snowshed base lodges with one combined lodge. Both of those lodges are a least 20-25 years overdue for the wrecking ball. That still leaves the Bear Mountain lodge which is long overdue for a facelift as well.

The list of antiquated lifts is long with the Skyship, Needles Eye, and Rams Head lifts being especially in need of replacement or overhaul.

So, they have a new major lodge to pay for, one major lodge renovation, and at least 3 major lifts. Guessing that the new lodges (village and bear) are about $75-$100M and the 3 new lifts are $20-$25M so $95-$125M in immediate pressing needs. And then there is the snowmaking system with its frequent blowouts that has obvious needs, and anything else associated with the village that they have to pay for like the ski bridge between RH and Snowshed which they are probably on the hook for as well as at least some of the new employee housing.

Any way you slice it, they've got $100-$150M plus in immediate pressing needs. That is a lot of $16 beers.

The lodges should be put at the very end of the list.

[jimmywilson69]

yeah the lodges are fine. There are 2 brand new lodges on the hill. If/when village gets built there will be another fancy one at Ramshead/snowshed.

And allegedly the development at Bear funds a new bear lodge.

Lifts and snowmaking.

[Big Bob]

New carpet and paint in the basement and first floor at Bear Lodge thanks to the summer flooding, why tear it down? Next,replace a few cracked windows. It's a ski lodge, not a five star hotel. I would rather see money spent on fixing or replacing the lifts and replacing and modernizing the snowmaking system.

[GlenPLake]

Please someone correct my math, but the way I calculate it, with 22 lifts, if one is replaced every 3rd year, they will maintain a 66 year old lift age average. It would take a lift replacement every other year to eventually get to a 44 year average lift lifespan. Overhauling lifts complicates the math some, but it is clear to see they are still falling behind. Either 44 or 66 year average lift age is really way too old for a lift fleet at a premier resort. They need to replace an old lift every year for the next few years to catch up, anything less is clearly neglect.

[KingsFourMan]

New carpet and paint in the basement and first floor at Bear Lodge thanks to the summer flooding, why tear it down? Next,replace a few cracked windows. It's a ski lodge, not a five star hotel. I would rather see money spent on fixing or replacing the lifts and replacing and modernizing the snowmaking system.

Nobody said that the Bear Lodge needs to be torn down, it definitely doesn't, but it does need renovating. And I would put the way down the priority list as well in favor of new lifts and snowmaking improvements.

Regardless, their overall priority is now locked into the new combined Snowshed/Rams Head base lodge which is the anchor for the new village. That lodge is probably in the $60-$80M range at least. With that expense on the horizon, will there also be money to spend on new lifts? Based on Powdr's history at Killington, it doesn't look likely but they may not have a choice with how bad the skyship and needles eye lifts are now.

[eagle628]

Please someone correct my math, but the way I calculate it, with 22 lifts, if one is replaced every 3rd year, they will maintain a 66 year old lift age average. It would take a lift replacement every other year to eventually get to a 44 year average lift lifespan. Overhauling lifts complicates the math some, but it is clear to see they are still falling behind. Either 44 or 66 year average lift age is really way too old for a lift fleet at a premier resort. They need to replace an old lift every year for the next few years to catch up, anything less is clearly neglect.

No, 66 or 44 years would be the average age *at replacement*. So the average age of the fleet would be ~half that value. IE, you have one 66 year old lift and one 0 year old lift, making the average 33 years old, assuming the rest are evenly dispersed in terms of age.

[Skivt2]

So given all of this, does Powder sell? Let’s see…..increasing prices to increase income and reducing costs would increase net revenue in the short term making the area seem more valuable. With the World Cup and village buzz it also looks amazing. As long as no one looks under the covers at the real situation the asking price may be quite a bit higher then the real correct value. Two friends have brought this up. I hope they are wrong.

[Big Bob]

New carpet and paint in the basement and first floor at Bear Lodge thanks to the summer flooding, why tear it down? Next,replace a few cracked windows. It's a ski lodge, not a five star hotel. I would rather see money spent on fixing or replacing the lifts and replacing and modernizing the snowmaking system.

Nobody said that the Bear Lodge needs to be torn down, it definitely doesn't, but it does need renovating. And I would put the way down the priority list as well in favor of new lifts and snowmaking improvements.

Regardless, their overall priority is now locked into the new combined Snowshed/Rams Head base lodge which is the anchor for the new village. That lodge is probably in the $60-$80M range at least. With that expense on the horizon, will there also be money to spend on new lifts? Based on Powdr's history at Killington, it doesn't look likely but they may not have a choice with how bad the skyship and needles eye lifts are now.

Weren't we told the Bear lodge was to be torn down and replaced with money obtained by selling the land for the new condos at Bear Mnt? Will the developer pay to combine the two lodges at Rams/ Snowshed or Powdr? Replace the drive on the Needles chair this summer and rebuild/ refurbush the Skyship. Replace the Superstar Chair on a new alinement and replace the Rams chair with a six pack Bubble. You guys need to buy more $16 beers...

[newpylong1]

Mulch.