How bad do you think our economy will get!

[TLonginotti4KTon]

How bad do you think our economy will get!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiXHlBpW ... re=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=00W8lcLj ... re=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfgwUapo ... re=related

[Bubba]

Stock market will begin to rebound (it already has come off the bottom by more than 10%) by the second half of 2009. Unemployment will peak around 9% toward the latter part of the year but economic activity will be picking up by the fourth quarter.

And are we really that bad right now? OMG - we have 6 - 7% unemployment right now, up from about 4%. Sounds terrible, except that we used to think that 6% was the "natural rate" that we couldn't go below without triggering inflationary pressure. In the early 80s we had 11% unemployment. In the depression, we hit 25%! We have inflation running < 3% when we had, back in the early 80s, inflation around 10% or more at one point. We have interest rates at historic lows and mortgage rates around 5 - 5.5% when, in the early 80s, mortgage rates were in double digits. Yes, we have a serious financial problem that has yet to be solved and consumer confidence is at an all time low, but I bet that all changes by mid-year and we begin a recovery. In the words of FDR, "the only thing we have to fear, is fear itself".

[XtremeJibber2001]

Yes, we have a serious financial problem that has yet to be solved and consumer confidence is at an all time low, but I bet that all changes by mid-year and we begin a recovery.

Well I certainly hope so with the ~$1 trillion dollars Obama will be asking for. My question to Coydog is what is Obama cutting to cover the ~$1 trillion?

[JerseyGuy]

This vote is invalid without a SkippySnow option.

Oh, wait... the first choice IS the SkippySnow option! Carry on...

[Bubba]

Yes, we have a serious financial problem that has yet to be solved and consumer confidence is at an all time low, but I bet that all changes by mid-year and we begin a recovery.

Well I certainly hope so with the ~$1 trillion dollars Obama will be asking for. My question to Coydog is what is Obama cutting to cover the ~$1 trillion?

You don't do anything right now to cover the dollars. You spend it now and tighten up later as we recover.

[XtremeJibber2001]

Yes, we have a serious financial problem that has yet to be solved and consumer confidence is at an all time low, but I bet that all changes by mid-year and we begin a recovery.

Well I certainly hope so with the ~$1 trillion dollars Obama will be asking for. My question to Coydog is what is Obama cutting to cover the ~$1 trillion?

You don't do anything right now to cover the dollars. You spend it now and tighten up later as we recover.

... that doesn't sound like Hope we can believe in ... especially when Obama is saying one thing to voters and doing something totally opposite once in office (not that this isn't typical, but Obama is supposed to be "Change we can believe in"). Obama sounds like an 18 year old with a unlimited credit limit VISA.

[Coydog]

I’m in general agreement with Bubba on this. I believe we have experienced a problem primarily in the financial markets, people who pretty much trade paper. The underlying economy that actually produces things or provides services is still marching forward, though some of the effects of the financial meltdown have obviously percolated through.

The financial markets are largely driven by confidence – confidence the paper you are trading has value. But the production economy is still driven by need. At the end of the day, we all still need plenty of stuff and I don’t think our current economic downturn will be nearly as deep or as long as some have suggested. In general, everything seems to be moving faster with less permanence.

I am not particularly happy with this bailout mania we seem to have embraced. I think economic Darwinism is usually the best course where no company is too big to fail or too small to succeed. But I also know that money is like a septic system, it needs to keep flowing to avoid turning into an ugly mess.

If spending tax dollars now will get things flowing and ultimately resuscitate the economy sooner, we can sort out the necessary cuts later - though I can’t help but think we may be overreacting.

[Nikoli]

Does anyone hear think that the Option ARM market will be the next huge issue?

Unfortunately, the worst is ahead of us. The entire global economy will contract in a severe and protracted U-shaped global recession that started a year ago. The U.S. will certainly experience its worst recession in decades, a deep and protracted contraction lasting at least through the end of 2009. Even in 2010 the economic recovery may be so weak -- 1 percent growth or so -- that it will feel terrible even if the recession is technically over.

Recession Spreads

There also will be recessions in the euro zone, the U.K., continental Europe, Canada, Japan and the other advanced economies.

This doesn't give me much hope.

[Bubba]

Yes, we have a serious financial problem that has yet to be solved and consumer confidence is at an all time low, but I bet that all changes by mid-year and we begin a recovery.

Well I certainly hope so with the ~$1 trillion dollars Obama will be asking for. My question to Coydog is what is Obama cutting to cover the ~$1 trillion?

You don't do anything right now to cover the dollars. You spend it now and tighten up later as we recover.

... that doesn't sound like Hope we can believe in ... especially when Obama is saying one thing to voters and doing something totally opposite once in office (not that this isn't typical, but Obama is supposed to be "Change we can believe in"). Obama sounds like an 18 year old with a unlimited credit limit VISA.

First off, he isn't even in office, but what are you talking about regardless? He ran for office talking about the need for rebuilding infrastructure and the need for a stimulus package. That's what he's still talking about.

[XtremeJibber2001]

Yes, we have a serious financial problem that has yet to be solved and consumer confidence is at an all time low, but I bet that all changes by mid-year and we begin a recovery.

Well I certainly hope so with the ~$1 trillion dollars Obama will be asking for. My question to Coydog is what is Obama cutting to cover the ~$1 trillion?

You don't do anything right now to cover the dollars. You spend it now and tighten up later as we recover.

... that doesn't sound like Hope we can believe in ... especially when Obama is saying one thing to voters and doing something totally opposite once in office (not that this isn't typical, but Obama is supposed to be "Change we can believe in"). Obama sounds like an 18 year old with a unlimited credit limit VISA.

First off, he isn't even in office, but what are you talking about regardless? He ran for office talking about the need for rebuilding infrastructure and the need for a stimulus package. That's what he's still talking about.

... he said he would introduce no new spending. All new spending would be met by a cut in something else. Were we watching the same people? Coydog has made this a point of his support for Obama multiple times.

[Bubba]

First off, he isn't even in office, but what are you talking about regardless? He ran for office talking about the need for rebuilding infrastructure and the need for a stimulus package. That's what he's still talking about.

... he said he would introduce no new spending. All new spending would be met by a cut in something else. Were we watching the same people? Coydog has made this a point of his support for Obama multiple times.

Oh yeah, but I believe that was back before the financial crisis and before we knew how quickly the economy was hitting the skids. Now that we know, it's time to change plans.

[XtremeJibber2001]

First off, he isn't even in office, but what are you talking about regardless? He ran for office talking about the need for rebuilding infrastructure and the need for a stimulus package. That's what he's still talking about.

... he said he would introduce no new spending. All new spending would be met by a cut in something else. Were we watching the same people? Coydog has made this a point of his support for Obama multiple times.

Oh yeah, but I believe that was back before the financial crisis and before we knew how quickly the economy was hitting the skids. Now that we know, it's time to change plans.

I suppose, but the Fed can only artificially prop up the market for so long before the USD tanks (more then it has) and we're SOL. My $.02

[subdude]

Might want to invest in guns, water, ammo, food stocks, hand tools, bicycles, livestock, canning supplies, and whiskey.

[TLonginotti4KTon]

Might want to invest in guns, water, ammo, food stocks, hand tools, bicycles, livestock, canning supplies, and whiskey.

don't forget gold and silver.

[XtremeJibber2001]

It's on its way ... Gov't control is expanding and promises by Obama are being quickly forgotten. Bush's budget deficit's will be child's play come the Obama years.

Obama Calls for Budget Reform as Deficits May Last for Years

By HENRY J. PULIZZI

WASHINGTON -- President-elect Barack Obama warned Tuesday that the federal deficit is likely to rise to close to $1 trillion this year, saying the exploding budget gap underscores the need for long-term reform of the nation's finances.

Following a meeting with his economic and budget team, Mr. Obama told reporters that the plan being crafted to jump start the economy will ban earmarks, the pork-barrel projects lawmakers insert into legislation without review. He repeated that the stimulus package will be evaluated by an oversight board, and said taxpayers will have access to information on how their money is spent.

"We're already looking at a $1 trillion budget deficit or close to a $1 trillion budget deficit, and potentially we've got $1 trillion deficits for years to come," Mr. Obama said.

"We're going to have to stop talking about budget reform and we're going to have to fully embrace it. It's an absolute necessity."

The president-elect's remarks Tuesday were the latest in his drive to sell lawmakers and the public on a stimulus plan that could approach $775 billion over two years, legislation that will further pressure the already record-high deficit.

Mr. Obama met at his transition office with Rahm Emanuel, Chief of Staff-designate; Timothy Geithner, Treasury Secretary-designate; Peter Orszag, Director-designate, Office of Management and Budget; Rob Nabors, Deputy Director-designate, Office of Management and Budget; Christina Romer, Director-designate, Council of Economic Advisors; and Lawrence Summers, Director-designate, National Economic Council.

The session was aimed at reviewing the medium-term budget outlook and discussing a fiscal 2010 budget that puts the government on a path to reduce the record deficit.

The government ran a record budget deficit of $454.8 billion for fiscal 2008, which ended in September.

"We're going to have to bring significant reform not just to our recovery and reinvestment plan, but to the overall budget process, to address both the deficit of dollars and the deficit of trust," Mr. Obama said. "We'll have to make tough choices, and we're going to have to break old habits."