NSR: Corona Virus - You Can Start Panicking Now

[XtremeJibber2001]

evil drug companies are not allowed to make a profit... it's mean spirited...

The billions in R&D spent on drugs that never make it to market is not a popular topic for discussion. Many of the same companies are investing billions on developing a COVID vaccine that may never go to market, too ... their valiant failure won’t be newsworthy either ... just part of their business.

[madhatter]

evil drug companies are not allowed to make a profit... it's mean spirited...

The billions in R&D spent on drugs that never make it to market is not a popular topic for discussion. Many of the same companies are investing billions on developing a COVID vaccine that may never go to market, too ... their valiant failure won’t be newsworthy either ... just part of their business.

thanks, I was completely unaware

one can not support any D or progressive candidate and also acknowledge what you just posted...at least not while maintaining any sort of integrity...which was my point earlier...

but you stripped out the context in your partial quote, and thus the sarcasm...

my position is definitely not what you quoted...in fact quite the opposite, it's in total agreement with what you posted....how do you not know that?

[XtremeJibber2001]

evil drug companies are not allowed to make a profit... it's mean spirited...

The billions in R&D spent on drugs that never make it to market is not a popular topic for discussion. Many of the same companies are investing billions on developing a COVID vaccine that may never go to market, too ... their valiant failure won’t be newsworthy either ... just part of their business.

thanks, I was completely unaware

one can not support any D or progressive candidate and also acknowledge what you just posted...at least not while maintaining any sort of integrity...which was my point earlier...

but you stripped out the context in your partial quote, and thus the sarcasm...

my position is definitely not what you quoted...in fact quite the opposite, it's in total agreement with what you posted....how do you not know that?

I’m agreeing with your position

[madhatter]

evil drug companies are not allowed to make a profit... it's mean spirited...

The billions in R&D spent on drugs that never make it to market is not a popular topic for discussion. Many of the same companies are investing billions on developing a COVID vaccine that may never go to market, too ... their valiant failure won’t be newsworthy either ... just part of their business.

thanks, I was completely unaware

one can not support any D or progressive candidate and also acknowledge what you just posted...at least not while maintaining any sort of integrity...which was my point earlier...

but you stripped out the context in your partial quote, and thus the sarcasm...

my position is definitely not what you quoted...in fact quite the opposite, it's in total agreement with what you posted....how do you not know that?

I’m agreeing with your position

it's hard to tell when you exclude this part from the quote: "the public wants a remedy but the public also wants it for the price of hydroxychloroquine"

[Highway Star]

Sign of the times....

https://www.slashfilm.com/sunday-night-movies/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Highway Star]

Been looking for this all day, sheesh.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1pjg ... Emcos/edit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://twitter.com/zev_dr/status/1255406663978364928" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Dr. Zelenko latest open letter.

[XtremeJibber2001]

Will be interesting to see how Georgia and S Carolina do. Looks like they will be reopening this week. Will look at these graphs again come the week of May 11 or so.

Georgia followed by S. Carolina.

Note: Guidance via Opening America up Again recommends a downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period be satisfied before phasing the reopening of a state.

Why is there no discussion of proportionality, only "downward slope"?

in other words, if a State keeps the number of cases under a certain threshold of medical capacity, such as active Covid cases below 50% of hospital capacity, why not recommend that State to continue a planned incremental re-opening? In large States, shouldn't the evaluation be regional as well?

Why are these charts tabulated in total number of cases, as opposed to a percent of population? Why not also show current cases being treated, instead of merely a historic total? Certainly 1,000 cases in NY means something different than 1,000 cases in SC. GA has twice the population of SC, so equating number of cases is very misleading.

Why is any downward slope even relevant? Why isn't the ability to maintain a level number of cases a recommended goal if the health services capacity is sufficient? Or a slightly positive slope if that positive slope projects to an attainable health services capacity in a months or two timeframe? In other words the ability to ramp up care facilities carries with it the ability to handle a higher number of cases.

So far the analysis is driven by a simple total cases-to-date count, which seems to be a somewhat useless and even misleading metric when taken as a single indicator.

I posted the graphs because these states were going against the framework proposed by the White House (WH). I can't tell you where there's no discussion of proportionality. I can't speak to other states, but Pennsylvania seems to be applying the WH framework on a county-by-county basis on opening/closing counties. So inherently considering proportionality. I'm sure other states are doing something similar.

Cases as a percent of a population can be just as misleading as total cases.

I like your point about considering health services. I took a look at my county ... we have 39 ICU beds and 126 ventilators. 9 ICU beds and 64 ventilators (39 are not COVID related) are in use. My county has a population of ~600k and is considered Red = Stay at Home. We see about 100 new cases a day ... say 7% of these end up requiring an ICU bed and 3% require a ventilator. With a 14-day incubation period it looks like my county would still be closed under the 'health services' consideration. I'm sure there are plenty in a better situation than my county.

As an aside, if believe, the latest CDC projections are troubling to say the least .. reaching 3,000 daily deaths on June 1st and about 200,000 new cases each day by end of the month.

[madhatter]

COVIDITY


so holy fvck...Hatters finally needed to re-stock and mrs hatter had a dentist appt so we headed into w leb for the first time since february...

still plenty of traffic and VT sate trucks monitoring plates at every border we crossed between vt and nh...

virtually no cars in strip mall parking lot...huge limes at the drive thru windows etc...


245 pm Home depot complete sh!tshow...limited number allowed in store at a time...line of about 30 people waiting to get in and a LONG line of cars to get out of the parking lot... took more than 10 min just to get out of the parking lot...I didn't even bother going in HD...

over to BJ's...no limit on number of people in the store...no lines, no crowds, almost no meat, no butter...pretty much no chicken at all...limited pork, seemed to be some beef...I was really only after a boston butt for grinding into sausage and some chicken....the rest of the pork and beef we eat comes from local suppliers... lots of other things I never buy completely stripped bare from the shelves too...there were a number of things I was unable to find or got the last ones of...they did have TP, I didn't need any but I bought a pckg anyway....limit one....

over to price chopper...no limit on people in store, no lines, no crowds...ONE pckg of each ( or any) type of meat per customer...I was able to go thru a dif checkout line than mrs hatter so we could get a second whole chicken and pckg of boneless thighs...you could buy as much fish and seafood as you wanted...surprisingly no limit on coffee and it was actually on sale...lots of empty shelves...

no flour at either store...no hand sanitizer either...

over to sterns for produce...no lines, no limits no issues...pretty well stocked... and if ya haven;t been since it re-opened they've spiffed the place up quite a bit....


we won't need to go to the beeeg city again til august hopefully...

[Highway Star]

This the leaked forecast that was presented to FEMA:



https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper ... d/full.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[madhatter]

Johns Hopkins University said Tuesday that a leaked FEMA document featuring charts projecting nearly double the current daily coronavirus death toll by the end of May is not a "final version."

The charts used data from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

The document was intended to illustrate scenarios, including relaxing restrictions on businesses, travel and social distancing that has brought the economy to a standstill in recent weeks. The information was intended to highlight what might cause significant increases in COVID-19 cases and deaths throughout the United States, the statement said.

"These preliminary analyses were provided to FEMA to aid in scenario planning — not to be used as forecasts — and the version published is not a final version," the school said in a statement. "These preliminary results are not forecasts, and it is not accurate to present them as forecasts."

and the sky remains aloft for another day...

[XtremeJibber2001]

Looks like this is all but over so says the White House Council of Economic Advisors.

A99055B0-57EF-4740-9774-DC72591E3AB7.jpeg (21.97 KiB) Viewed 1394 times

[Bubba]

Looks like this is all but over so says the White House Council of Economic Advisors.

A99055B0-57EF-4740-9774-DC72591E3AB7.jpeg

Epidemiologists all.

[XtremeJibber2001]

Epidemiologists all.

I’m not sure the IHME model is any better. Look at the model on top of US daily death rate. How will we achieve this inflection? We will somehow slow the death rate slower than any other country in the world on the heals of reopening?

Almost looks like someone predicted a certain number of deaths on a given date and made the curve fit, no?

[madhatter]

Epidemiologists all.

I’m not sure the IHME model is any better. Look at the model on top of US daily death rate. How will we achieve this inflection? We will somehow slow the death rate slower than any other country in the world on the heals of reopening?

Almost looks like someone predicted a certain number of deaths on a given date and made the curve fit, no?

haven't we been constantly told that deaths are a lagging indicator? have hospitalizations and ICU admittances been dropping? if that's the case then wouldn't deaths follow suit, lagging of course...

maybe you, bubba or one of the other esteemed epidemiologists here can explain in detail for trump and the rest of us?



also in the world of covid

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/resear ... er-suicide" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Researcher On Cusp Of COVID-19 Breakthrough Killed In Bizarre Murder-Suicide

The researcher, 37-year-oild Bing Liu, was found shot multiple times in the head, neck and torso around Noon on Saturday. Nothing was stolen from the townhouse and there was no forced entry, according to the Post Gazette. He worked in the college's department of computational and systems biology at the Pitt School of Medicine.

Bing was on the verge of making very significant findings toward understanding the cellular mechanisms that underlie SARS-CoV-2 infection and the cellular basis of the following complications," the department announced in a written statement, adding "We will make an effort to complete what he started in an effort to pay homage to his scientific excellence."

His loss will be felt throughout the entire scientific community," said the university in a statement.

The motive in the shooting is unknown and the investigation is ongoing. A formal ruling from the Allegheny County Medical Examiner’s Office regarding the cause and manner of Gu's death is pending, according to the report.

and

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/corona ... st-vs-west" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Coronavirus Mutates Into Now-Dominant, More Contagious Form As Doctors Ponder 'East Coast vs. West Coast' Strains

In addition to spreading faster, it may make people vulnerable to a second infection after a first bout with the disease, the report warned.

The 33-page report was posted Thursday on BioRxiv, a website that researchers use to share their work before it is peer reviewed, an effort to speed up collaborations with scientists working on COVID-19 vaccines or treatments. That research has been largely based on the genetic sequence of earlier strains and might not be effective against the new one. -LA Times (via Yahoo)

The new strain first appeared in Italy, almost at the same time as the original Wuhan strain appeared, according to the report. By March 15, the mutated strain was dominant. The same was seen in New York, which was hit by the original virus around March 15, but was overwhelmed by the new strain within days.

The authors also warn that if the pandemic doesn't wind down during the summer as most viruses do, it could undergo further mutations right as the first medical treatments and vaccines - should the adhere to ambitious timelines we've been promised - begin to roll out.

"We cannot afford to be blindsided as we move vaccines and antibodies into clinical testing," Korber added on Facebook. "Please be encouraged by knowing the global scientific community is on this, and we are cooperating with each other in ways I have never seen … in my 30 years as a scientist."

and

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... n-new-york" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Mysterious Coronavirus-Linked Syndrome Spreads From London To New York

An unusually deadly coronavirus-linked respiratory syndrome initially observed among a cluster of children in the UK has apparently popped up in New York City, according to local media reports.

ABC 7 says a group of 15 children in NYC have been hospitalized with unusual symptoms similar to - get this - toxic shock syndrome, or Kawasaki Disease. The symptoms include inflammation of the blood vessels, including coronary arteries. While there have been reports of COVID-19 causing heart attacks in some patients with certain preexisting conditions, this level of damage seems unusually severe. COVID-19 is also not usually very aggressive in young children. Other symptoms include fever, rash, abdominal pain and vomiting.

However, not all of the 15 patients tested positive for the coronavirus. Only 4 tested positive outright, while 6 tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies, meaning they had likely been previously infected.

On Long Island, Cohen's Children Hospital has confirmed 25 kids have been hospitalized with Kawasaki-like symptoms; 11 of them are in the ICU. The county health commissioner in Nassau described their condition as "concerning."

But the intensity of the syndrome has alarmed doctors, particularly in the middle of the COVID-19 outbreak, about the possibility that a new mutated strain of the virus might be emerging, or perhaps this is some other pathogen, or some other kind of unanticipated complication?

[madhatter]

nah....