NSR: Corona Virus - You Can Start Panicking Now

[easyrider16]

90 percent effective? That's amazing. I remember when Dr. Fuaci was saying he hoped for a vaccine that was at least 70% effective. Score another win for science, and another loss for anti-vaxxers.

Lets see how quickly they can produce and ship this stuff out. Maybe we'll get better than expected results in that department, too, and by spring this thing will finally disappear for real, thanks to science rather than fantasy.

[XtremeJibber2001]

Lets see how quickly they can produce and ship this stuff out. Maybe we'll get better than expected results in that department, too, and by spring this thing will finally disappear for real, thanks to science rather than fantasy.

My understanding is they're already being manufactured. Up to 100 million in 2020 and expect 1.3 billion in 2021.

[XtremeJibber2001]

Pence trying to say this Pfizer vaccine is a result of the public-private partnership forged by Trump. C'mon, please. Good on Pfizer to make it clear they were never part of the Warp Speed project and never took any money from the U.S. government.

[easyrider16]

Pence has learned this lesson on propaganda from Trump - claim credit even if you had nothing to do with it!

[XtremeJibber2001]

Lying is their way of life ... no shame.

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[easyrider16]

I am reading that Operation Warp Speed contracted with Pfizer to buy a bunch of doses of this vaccine. Is that not accurate?

[Nikoli]

"And it isn’t known whether the vaccine prevents severe disease, as none of the participants who got Covid-19 in this round of analysis had severe cases, Gruber said." - I don't understand this. Isn't the goal of the vaccine to prevent server cases?

[XtremeJibber2001]

I am reading that Operation Warp Speed contracted with Pfizer to buy a bunch of doses of this vaccine. Is that not accurate?

Yes, Warp Speed bought Pfizer vaccines, but Pfizer was not part of Operation Warp Speed. The White House can't claim any credit for Pfizer's vaccine development.

"And it isn’t known whether the vaccine prevents severe disease, as none of the participants who got Covid-19 in this round of analysis had severe cases, Gruber said." - I don't understand this. Isn't the goal of the vaccine to prevent server cases?

I think the goal is to prevent the disease. Like the flu vaccine, I'm sure some will still get the virus and some will still die, but if we can reduce cases / deaths by anywhere 90% that's pretty promising. The even better news is this is promising for other vaccines in the pipeline, which might do even better.

[gardi]

"And it isn’t known whether the vaccine prevents severe disease, as none of the participants who got Covid-19 in this round of analysis had severe cases, Gruber said." - I don't understand this. Isn't the goal of the vaccine to prevent server cases?

It just means that none of the study participants developed severe covid (including those who were given the placebo). Since we don't know what determines whether an individual will develop severe covid or not, it is still possible (although perhaps unlikely) that the vaccine only prevents cases that would have been mild anyway (for instance, let's imagine that severe covid tends to happen in individuals that for some reason are less likely to mount an adequate immune response to the virus and where thus the vaccine would not be effective).

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[easyrider16]

Here's my cynical side showing. If these vaccines are truly effective, and they get shipped quickly in sufficient numbers, it's going to end the pandemic quickly. It will feel like Covid disappeared overnight as we get back to normalcy.

And then all those deluded Trump supporters are going to say, "See? Covid was never a thing. It was just another media hoax. Trump was right all along, it just disappeared." When the truth is, science saved you even when your dear leader was criticizing the scientists.

[XtremeJibber2001]

Here's my cynical side showing. If these vaccines are truly effective, and they get shipped quickly in sufficient numbers, it's going to end the pandemic quickly. It will feel like Covid disappeared overnight as we get back to normalcy.

And then all those deluded Trump supporters are going to say, "See? Covid was never a thing. It was just another media hoax. Trump was right all along, it just disappeared." When the truth is, science saved you even when your dear leader was criticizing the scientists.

Cynical with a heavy dose of delusion COVID will still be here, in a significant way, this time next year. Unless:

1 - Other Pharma's have highly successful vaccines
2 - People take the vaccine in large numbers
3 - Disinformation or anecdotal vaccine issues don't take over the news. Anti-vaxxers, including many on the right, will be hard at work to sow distrust.
4 - See 2 and 3

[easyrider16]

I suspect that if Pfizer's vaccine is that effective, most others will be as well. I suspect that's a function of the disease's biology rather than Pfizer doing something that other pharma's can't replicate.

I also think people will take it in large numbers. Most workplaces and schools are either going to require you take the vaccine or you wear a mask. Americans hate masks more than they hate drugs, so they'll take it. Sure, there will be that 20-30% of the population who won't take it for whatever reason, and that's a large number of people for sure, but if it really is 90% effective then I imagine 70% of the population taking it will be enough to allow the world to re-open.

I figure 40% of the population will take it because they are reasonable people, 30% more will take it because Biden or some other leader they worship says it's a good idea, and 30% or so won't take it because their tribal leaders tell them not to.

[XtremeJibber2001]

I figure 40% of the population will take it because they are reasonable people, 30% more will take it because Biden or some other leader they worship says it's a good idea, and 30% or so won't take it because their tribal leaders tell them not to.

Here's hoping you're right

My state makes immunization details available by school / school district. At least around me, what I see is the immunization rate is slowly going down. Today it's still >90%, which is good. It gets tricky once we see dips into the 80's. Anecdotally, friends and family that immunize and normally get the flu shot are saying they won't get the COVID vaccine ... I hope (expect?) this will change over time once more of the population takes it.

[easyrider16]

People are still under the impression that this was a rush job. As more studies come out showing the efficacy and safety I suspect that will go away, especially with sane leadership in place. At least that's my hope.

[brownman]

The 90% study, even if overstated, is encouraging
As long as they dont need to adjust the formulation of what's rumoured to have been produced and delivered, we might have a reasonable ski season .. next winter ..

That's some seriously cold transportation cargo
.. a good time to invest in dry ice futures..