Six Peaks Killington

[GMCrra]

I noticed they raised the price again on Bear base units

The revised act 250 when they switched from mid rise to duplex units during covid is still pending but looks like most issues cleared:
https://anrweb.vt.gov/ANR/Act250/Detail ... =1R0322-15

Will be interesting to see if high 2nd home mortgage rates impact the uptake for village units, but it sounds like they intend to start pre-sales next year and not break ground until 2025. Maybe rates will be lower by then. But if town passes the bond and Great Gulf signs the deal next spring they are under pressure.to build and pass the guaranteed assessed tax payments on to home buyers. They have to sell ~60% of 200 units to cover the tax payments for the TIF.

We should know by March if inflation and interest rates are forecast to subside, if not and we get a white collar recession (particularly in tech space), things may get delayed. Wall St bonuses are also down 50% this year that fund discretionary purchases like the village. They are late this cycle. Stowes village snuck in during 2007 right before the sh*t hit the fan.

[hillbangin]

, if not and we get a white collar recession (particularly in tech space), things may get delayed. Wall St bonuses are also down 50% this year that fund discretionary purchases like the village. They are late this cycle. Stowes village snuck in during 2007 right before the sh*t hit the fan.

It's here - layoffs are massive across the board - everything from ATT/Verizon, Salesforce, Amazon, MSFT etc to crappy over funded startups.

Spent most of Friday fielding I need a job calls.

Anyone buying the village units is buying them because the 'have the money' , trading up, or are going to play the AirBNB game.

Can't wait to see the prices........

Those units at Bear are GROSSLY overpriced. 5 mile drive to food and fun. 90 day ski in ski out............

If they broke ground 2 years ago the Rams Head houses would all be sold at a premium.

[newpylong1]

That 90 days is more like 110 and that's 110 more than Westchester County. I also doubt anyone is buying there to go rock the Pickle Barrel.

[brownman]

Stowes village snuck in during 2007 right before the sh*t hit the fan.

Spruce Peak and the associated build-out at Stowe was largely attributed to the AIG bailout. If not for American taxpayers footing much of that bill, they would have had a tough time getting that project funded and completed. Killington doesn't enjoy that level of financial support.

[GMCrra]

I don't see airbnb investors buying bear base Camp. I saw one article that quoted a buyer intended to do that, it doesn't make any sense. Let's say you do 150k in rentals and net 100k after expenses which is being generous. That equates to a 3.5% cap rate on a 2.8m investment and that assumes you pay cash. Any debt and you are negative. And there arent enough amenities to demand high rental rates outside peak ski season or in summer. You can get near 5% return in risk free treasuries right now. No work and risk involved. Those units are trophies for people with excess capital.

The base camp buyer is likely somewhat different from a village unit buyer, those will be smaller and probably need fractional ownership shares to market and sell some of them.

Will buyers paying 2m+ want airbnb rentals ? It remains to be see whether a new HOA will even allow rentals.

[Heywood jablowmee]

HOA's can pound sand......its YOUR titled/deeded property...you can reasonably rent to whomever /whenever you choose. The language that attempts to restrict it?..runs into a steamy pile of legal shite everytime

[hillbangin]

They have to have short term rentals.

Those places will be worth half as much without it.

Just the way the numbers work these days.



Sent from my SM-S906U1 using Tapatalk

[Bubba]

I noticed they raised the price again on Bear base units

The revised act 250 when they switched from mid rise to duplex units during covid is still pending but looks like most issues cleared:
https://anrweb.vt.gov/ANR/Act250/Detail ... =1R0322-15

Will be interesting to see if high 2nd home mortgage rates impact the uptake for village units, but it sounds like they intend to start pre-sales next year and not break ground until 2025. Maybe rates will be lower by then. But if town passes the bond and Great Gulf signs the deal next spring they are under pressure.to build and pass the guaranteed assessed tax payments on to home buyers. They have to sell ~60% of 200 units to cover the tax payments for the TIF.

We should know by March if inflation and interest rates are forecast to subside, if not and we get a white collar recession (particularly in tech space), things may get delayed. Wall St bonuses are also down 50% this year that fund discretionary purchases like the village. They are late this cycle. Stowes village snuck in during 2007 right before the sh*t hit the fan.

The figure the town is using is 68%. Of course, that figure was calculated when interest rates were significantly lower. What will the figure be with higher bond interest rates and higher mortgage rates affecting sales and sales prices?

[GMCrra]

They don't have to be short term rentals and plenty of HOAs in vacation markets like Florida restrict rentals to weekly or monthly and enforce it. Look at Top Ridge now, only a couple of them are STRs. Only a few of base camp will be too I suspect, but it's lousy investment proposition. You probably lose 800k of resale the day you close and don't get it back until years of inflation later.

The village may be a different story, but most of those won't be pushing 3 million. More like 1 to 2 million except for the single family homes. They will have to STR to pay the outrageous taxes in VT compared to other ski states, you also want STR for a vibrant village to work. Sunday River is selling at higher prices than K, its not because it's a better location or mountain, it's that the property tax rates are 1/2 those in VT ski towns.

Interest rates could be subsidized by the developer but they have to get people to pay the property tax, which will be considerable. Some of the older condos at Sugarbush are now selling for as much as the more recent Clay brook units, it's the high taxes and fees assessed on newer built units.