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Mister Moose wrote: ↑Nov 24th, '21, 14:50

Bubba wrote: ↑Nov 24th, '21, 14:28 I think you need to research Keystone just a bit. Rather than add a lot of oil to the international mix of supply, it merely shortened the transportation distance and reduced the cost of transportation for the heavy oil coming out of Alberta. That oil was already hitting the market, just by a different route. (Mostly rail.) In other words, the benefit of KeystoneXL would be to increase the oil producers' netbacks.

Which is cheaper, rail or pipeline? Pipeline, thus the higher netback to producers
How does cost of production affect supply? It obviously depends on the market price of the product
How fast can the industry react to price changes when developing new sources of supply? Highly dependent on the type of production, whether onshore, offshore, fracked, deep well, light crude, heavy crude, tar sands, etc.

Dickc wrote: ↑Nov 24th, '21, 13:15

Bubba wrote: ↑Nov 24th, '21, 09:32

Dickc wrote: ↑Nov 24th, '21, 08:59 Trump remained cushy with the Saudi Arabian leader even after the disgusting event of Kashogi’s (sp?) murder. Trump got LOTS of well deserved flack for it too. Biden during the debates, came out strongly against the Saudi leadership. If YOU ran Saudi Arabia, what would YOU do with oil prices? If Trump had remained president, I believe the oil prices would have remained lower, plus KeystoneXL would be being built. It’s the Democrat war on carbon, and by association, the US economy.

Take KeystoneXL out of your comments and you might have something there. On the other hand, you’ve ignored international demand growth for oil and natural gas, domestic refinery shutdowns, and the fact that the US now exports some of its production.

Not ignoring international demand, but the change in American attitude was the straw that made the Saudi’s withdraw some production to force up market prices. You know, that pesky supply and demand thing. I’m sure Trump was being nice as he wanted to make it hard for the Saudis to do something to hurt a friend. Biden created distance, and distance made it easier for the Saudi ruler to decree that cut.

Keystone is future supply, but the markets DO have a future look to them, so this does factor in, most likely not to a major degree. It shows the trend of the US for the next few years, thus pricing in a premium.

Bubba wrote: ↑Nov 24th, '21, 16:28

Dickc wrote: ↑Nov 24th, '21, 13:15

Bubba wrote: ↑Nov 24th, '21, 09:32

Dickc wrote: ↑Nov 24th, '21, 08:59 Trump remained cushy with the Saudi Arabian leader even after the disgusting event of Kashogi’s (sp?) murder. Trump got LOTS of well deserved flack for it too. Biden during the debates, came out strongly against the Saudi leadership. If YOU ran Saudi Arabia, what would YOU do with oil prices? If Trump had remained president, I believe the oil prices would have remained lower, plus KeystoneXL would be being built. It’s the Democrat war on carbon, and by association, the US economy.

Take KeystoneXL out of your comments and you might have something there. On the other hand, you’ve ignored international demand growth for oil and natural gas, domestic refinery shutdowns, and the fact that the US now exports some of its production.

Not ignoring international demand, but the change in American attitude was the straw that made the Saudi’s withdraw some production to force up market prices. You know, that pesky supply and demand thing. I’m sure Trump was being nice as he wanted to make it hard for the Saudis to do something to hurt a friend. Biden created distance, and distance made it easier for the Saudi ruler to decree that cut.

Keystone is future supply, but the markets DO have a future look to them, so this does factor in, most likely not to a major degree. It shows the trend of the US for the next few years, thus pricing in a premium.

NYMEX crude price futures are in mild backwardation over the next several years. Brent crude futures show a near term increase followed by a longer term decline. NYMEX natural gas shows similar if not more extreme backwardation. The RBOB contract is the only one showing relative stability over the next year and this is more a function of refinery capacity than crude supply.

The market is clearly looking at this as a short term supply issue except for gasoline.

Dickc wrote: ↑Nov 24th, '21, 17:42

Bubba wrote: ↑Nov 24th, '21, 16:28

Dickc wrote: ↑Nov 24th, '21, 13:15

Bubba wrote: ↑Nov 24th, '21, 09:32

Dickc wrote: ↑Nov 24th, '21, 08:59 Trump remained cushy with the Saudi Arabian leader even after the disgusting event of Kashogi’s (sp?) murder. Trump got LOTS of well deserved flack for it too. Biden during the debates, came out strongly against the Saudi leadership. If YOU ran Saudi Arabia, what would YOU do with oil prices? If Trump had remained president, I believe the oil prices would have remained lower, plus KeystoneXL would be being built. It’s the Democrat war on carbon, and by association, the US economy.

Take KeystoneXL out of your comments and you might have something there. On the other hand, you’ve ignored international demand growth for oil and natural gas, domestic refinery shutdowns, and the fact that the US now exports some of its production.

Not ignoring international demand, but the change in American attitude was the straw that made the Saudi’s withdraw some production to force up market prices. You know, that pesky supply and demand thing. I’m sure Trump was being nice as he wanted to make it hard for the Saudis to do something to hurt a friend. Biden created distance, and distance made it easier for the Saudi ruler to decree that cut.

Keystone is future supply, but the markets DO have a future look to them, so this does factor in, most likely not to a major degree. It shows the trend of the US for the next few years, thus pricing in a premium.

NYMEX crude price futures are in mild backwardation over the next several years. Brent crude futures show a near term increase followed by a longer term decline. NYMEX natural gas shows similar if not more extreme backwardation. The RBOB contract is the only one showing relative stability over the next year and this is more a function of refinery capacity than crude supply.

The market is clearly looking at this as a short term supply issue except for gasoline.

NYMEX crude price futures have been in mild backwardation for most of the last decade. This is because buying a contract THAT FAR in the future has risk. That risk is that Saudi Arabia can open the taps and FLOOD the market at any time it wants. Lets say that Russia does something that really pisses off the Saudi's, they can retaliate by selling anotehr two to three million barrels a month and that would take the legs out from under Russia's main source of income. The fact that the futures contracts are so high is the promise that the Democrats are going to keep f*** up the US oil market in pursuit of their green dreams.

We can go back and forth all you want. I am most likely not going to change your mind, and you are not going to change mine.

Bubba wrote: ↑Nov 24th, '21, 16:14

Mister Moose wrote: ↑Nov 24th, '21, 14:50

Bubba wrote: ↑Nov 24th, '21, 14:28 I think you need to research Keystone just a bit. Rather than add a lot of oil to the international mix of supply, it merely shortened the transportation distance and reduced the cost of transportation for the heavy oil coming out of Alberta. That oil was already hitting the market, just by a different route. (Mostly rail.) In other words, the benefit of KeystoneXL would be to increase the oil producers' netbacks.

Which is cheaper, rail or pipeline? Pipeline, thus the higher netback to producers
How does cost of production affect supply? It obviously depends on the market price of the product Squishy answer. Wouldn't a lower cost of production increase the supply in market swings to low prices? The lower cost producer can profitably continue whereas a higher cost producer will reach a loss point sooner in a declining market, where they lose money on every barrel produced. (refining costs are a factor) In other words, more low cost producers would add stability to production levels?
How fast can the industry react to price changes when developing new sources of supply? Highly dependent on the type of production, whether onshore, offshore, fracked, deep well, light crude, heavy crude, tar sands, etc. What's the range, how fast can new sources be brought on line for each type?

Mister Moose wrote: ↑Nov 24th, '21, 20:18

Bubba wrote: ↑Nov 24th, '21, 16:14

Mister Moose wrote: ↑Nov 24th, '21, 14:50

Bubba wrote: ↑Nov 24th, '21, 14:28 I think you need to research Keystone just a bit. Rather than add a lot of oil to the international mix of supply, it merely shortened the transportation distance and reduced the cost of transportation for the heavy oil coming out of Alberta. That oil was already hitting the market, just by a different route. (Mostly rail.) In other words, the benefit of KeystoneXL would be to increase the oil producers' netbacks.

Which is cheaper, rail or pipeline? Pipeline, thus the higher netback to producers
How does cost of production affect supply? It obviously depends on the market price of the product Squishy answer. Wouldn't a lower cost of production increase the supply in market swings to low prices? The lower cost producer can profitably continue whereas a higher cost producer will reach a loss point sooner in a declining market, where they lose money on every barrel produced. (refining costs are a factor) In other words, more low cost producers would add stability to production levels?
How fast can the industry react to price changes when developing new sources of supply? Highly dependent on the type of production, whether onshore, offshore, fracked, deep well, light crude, heavy crude, tar sands, etc. What's the range, how fast can new sources be brought on line for each type?

Bigjohnski wrote: ↑Dec 10th, '21, 12:40 Former “Empire” actor Jussie Smollett was convicted on five counts Thursday evening on charges he orchestrated a fake hate crime against himself nearly three years ago, while jurors acquitted him of one other count.

A jury of six men and six women deliberated more than nine hours over two days before finding Smollett guilty of five of six counts of disorderly conduct, accusing the actor of staging a fake racist and homophobic attack against himself in January 2019, and then lying to police about it, in a bid for publicity. Jurors found him not guilty of the sixth count of disorderly conduct.


LOCK HIM UP!!!