Six Peaks Killington

[Bubba]

How do we determine economic growth created by TIF?

https://vermontbiz.com/news/2022/june/0 ... ive-policy

[Nikoli]

How do we determine economic growth created by TIF?

https://vermontbiz.com/news/2022/june/0 ... ive-policy

Darts at the wall!

[Big Bob]

How do we determine economic growth created by TIF?

https://vermontbiz.com/news/2022/june/0 ... ive-policy

Local version of the federal EB 5 program. Build it and they will come.

[GlenPLake]

Six peaks development getting National attention.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/russellfla ... 4bc663c792

[180]

That's a pretty good article even if they have some of the facts wrong, like the number of ski areas Vail owns. Hats off to Mike and the town for working together to get this done.

[hillbangin]

I wonder if someone had run the numbers on the impact to the tax rate if the developer does not complete the project. Will the tax rate go up 5%, 10%, 20%??

It will get done - eventually - 2057 or so....

Rates are going up - and the timing of breaking ground is not going to be good.

[newpylong1]

Interest rates are still low. If the demand is there, it will go forward.

[Big Bob]

I wonder if someone had run the numbers on the impact to the tax rate if the developer does not complete the project. Will the tax rate go up 5%, 10%, 20%??

It will get done - eventually - 2057 or so....

Rates are going up - and the timing of breaking ground is not going to be good.

At the rate of speed that projects get built in VT you may be spot on with the 2057. Look how long the K base lodge is taking, other projects else where are done and they had the same issues with the pandemic, supply chain issues, etc. Our school district in NH had a new middle school built and the move in was on schedule.

[Mister Moose]

Base Camp Bear act 250 permit is awaiting information, and there have been 3 individuals plus Sunrise HOA that have filed for party status in the proceedings. Would The Village try to compete with Base Camp? Both have Killington as a principal. The water TIF district isn't done, and the drums are beating for recession (size unknown) and several more healthy hikes in interest rates. The Village is not imminent in the next 3-5 years, but we may get quite a bit closer.

[GMCrra]

Base Camp and village are a bit different product, at least at outset. Is 24 duplexes, over 3000 sq ft really that competitive with 1500 units planned over 20 years in village ? Or 200 condo units and 7 single family sites in phase 1 of village.

I do wonder if there will be enough demand in 2023 - 2025 for people wanting to pay 7%+ interest rates and hefty property taxes. Maybe there is enough residual demand, but should have been shovel ready few years ago to capitalize on the cycle and covid WFH.

A lot of recent real estate froth was driven by speculative crypto gains, employee stock RSUs (now way down), and low rates. Add in overconfidence in the airbnb/STR income. The liquidity is being sucked out of all those.

In the 80s it was inflation and tax deductions on 2nd homes that drove demand from boomers. This time it was millennials getting their hands on some capital finally, low rates, WFH and STR.

[snoloco]

Different between 2008 and now is there's actually a shortage of inventory, rather than an oversupply.

[GMCrra]

This is true that inventory hasnt gone higher (yet), though northeast population trends arent exactly booming. If the job market or cashflow gets choppy the first thing to go are the 2nd discretionary homes. Lets see what happens heading in to 2023 as rates peak.

I think we are looking at a 20% correction a la 1990s versus a 50% crash like 2008. There will be a new price discovery period for resort real estate, that is above 2011 - 2017 but below current levels.

I would like to see village but might get delayed a few years.

[Big Bob]

https://vermontbiz.com/news/2022/june/3 ... dwAOh361L8

So, over 20 years the town nets an additional $4 mil. I am sure with the additional services required for the village this will not be enough to cover these additional costs. The state of VT education fun does make out better.

[GMCrra]

That number seems to omit any incremental rooms and meals tax to town.

[GlenPLake]

Seems this thing is really gonna happen this time.

I wonder if the resort will make any official announcement?

“The Town’s proposal for $62 million in public infrastructure improvements will facilitate private development of the long awaited Six Peaks, which will include a hotel, over 35,000 square feet of retail space, and approximately 323 new units of housing consisting of condos, townhomes, and single-family homes, the council said. Envisioned since the 1980’s, development of a resort village has been thwarted by the lack of municipal infrastructure, it noted. Great Gulf Group, the development company founded by Toronto businessmen Elly and Norman Reisman, appeared at a meeting on May 26 with state officials to say that it had reached an agreement to acquire related land in Killington. A green light for groundbreaking required the public-sector funding approved today.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/russellfla ... zBVTcnQR_k