Christmas / New Years Week Looking Promising

[Low Rider]

Was chatting with a friend earlier today. We were trying to remember: has there been a Xmas break in the past decade that hasn’t basically been a total bust? I definitely can’t remember a great one - but has there even been an OK one? Like maybe where it just didn’t r*in and there were some solid man made conditions all over?

In my 42 years as a Killington regular, it used to be that about 1 or 2 in 5 Christmas/New Years weeks were good. About 2 or 3 were OK and at least 1 or 2 were a total bust. Now it's about 1 in 10 that are good. About 5 in 10 are total busts and the rest are marginal at best. I wouldn't call this year a total bust because of the amount of terrain that should still be open after this deluge but it definitely won't be good. It's going to be icy as hell despite valiant efforts by mountain ops, there is only so much you can polish a turd.

I think the jury will be out if it is "bad" or "total bust". I imagine the 2" of forecasted r*in will close a heck a lot of currently open terrain.

I agree, i have not been a Killington regular for quite that long but looking back in history i also remember it being closer to a 50/50 shot of it being good in New England over Christmas.

I'm trying to remember if there has been one good Christmas break in the past 10 years.

[Stormchaser]

I remember when Thanksgiving used to be the iffy weather/terrain holiday...and that's not that long ago - 20 years maybe. Now they're lucky to be open for Thanksgiving.

[boston_e]

Looking Back at Photos etc and trying to piece it together:

2021 - Bad - r*in - we planned to stay up the entire school break and left early
2020 - Did not come up - COVID year (and we respected travel advisories)
2019 - No memory or photo records
2018 - From what I can tell OK. Just man made conditions (no big snowstorm, but no massive r*in/thaw either)
2017 - No Memory or photo records
2016 - I think OK Man-Made conditions
2015 - Terrible. Worst year ever. I think this was the year they didn't even have Snowshed open?
2014 - I see quite a bit of dirt and grass in the background of some photos.

Nothing further to dig back on.

Edit: I also think that 2015 was the year that Pico did not open at all until January.

[GMCrra]

I've owned in sunrise since 2011, we definitely were up and running in 2012 and 2013 with good snowfall during Xmas week. Since 2015 it's been lousy more often than not and feel like we are overdue for a decent holiday break.

[KingsFourMan]

I've owned in sunrise since 2011, we definitely were up and running in 2012 and 2013 with good snowfall during Xmas week. Since 2015 it's been lousy more often than not and feel like we are overdue for a decent holiday break.

This year was looking like that rare year for a minute. Good, prolonged snowmaking temps from the 7th on, a solid snowmaking effort on the part of K with what seems to be a much-improved snowmaking system, an awesome 2 ft dump, and when this upcoming storm was first talked about a week or so ago, they were talking all snow, it was just a matter of how much. Then Lucy yanked the ball away on us like she always does.

Are those Base Camp duplexes at Bear Mountain for $2.3M actually selling??? I can't fathom paying $2.3M for what now amounts to about an 8-10 week season at Bear.

[newpylong1]

8-10 weeks?

Assuming Bear opens by Christmas, and closes by the second week of April - that's a 13-15 week season give or take some fluctuations with ski in ski out access. Can it be better? Probably, and likely will when those get built. But that is on par with other eastern periphery ski in ski out property.

[easyrider16]

I've owned in sunrise since 2011, we definitely were up and running in 2012 and 2013 with good snowfall during Xmas week. Since 2015 it's been lousy more often than not and feel like we are overdue for a decent holiday break.

December 2012 was a good year during the week between Christmas and New Years. I remember an epic day at Pico in the summit glades, among others. In 2013 I took the week between Christmas and New Years off completely and remember getting a lot of good riding in. Since then I agree it's been lousy more often than not.

[Stormchaser]

Board goes back to 2004 for anyone with time on their hands...

[boston_e]

Looking Back at Photos etc and trying to piece it together:

2021 - Bad - r*in - we planned to stay up the entire school break and left early
2020 - Did not come up - COVID year (and we respected travel advisories)
2019 - No memory or photo records
2018 - From what I can tell OK. Just man made conditions (no big snowstorm, but no massive r*in/thaw either)
2017 - No Memory or photo records
2016 - I think OK Man-Made conditions
2015 - Terrible. Worst year ever. I think this was the year they didn't even have Snowshed open?
2014 - I see quite a bit of dirt and grass in the background of some photos.

Nothing further to dig back on.

Edit: I also think that 2015 was the year that Pico did not open at all until January.

Stormchaser had a good idea - and did not take long to find. It also spurred my memory on these years. From reading some of the reports (and confirming with "Time Machine" on Dark Sky.

2019 - Reports of r*in on the 27th, then of lifts down due to icing and power outages on the 28th (i assume due to freezing r*in)
2017 - This was the year of insanely cold. Temps well below zero (before wind chill) for much of the week. Lows of -15, highs of -5 at the base etc.
2013 - Looks like there was a r*in/ice event on the 22nd. Then the week between xmas and new years fell into the "conditions exceeded our low expectations" category.

All in all its a pretty bad run of holiday weeks. for at least the past 8-0years.

[asher2789]

https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks ... casts/1291

according to mountain forecast theres gonna be a 40* drop in about 6 hours time. f*** YIKES. i hope area businesses close early on friday and open late on saturday because the driving conditions for their employees (and customers) are going to be extremely dangerous.

with 85 mph winds predicted on friday i dont know how the mtn will even be open...

in my 26 years of riding (with the past decade or so being 50+ day seasons and often 100+), one of the scariest runs i ever took was last season. it r*ined 2 inches and then hard froze in ~12hrs. i was passing skyeship anyway and thought what the hell, ill just take one run, it can't be that bad. i couldnt buy a turn to save my life going down great eastern, on a relatively fresh board with a factory tune. i was convinced i was going to crash into a tree and get seriously injured... on a f*** green. i made it down ok but never again will i do something so stupid.

i really feel for ski patrol heading into this holiday week...

[brownman]

The word Promising in the topic title jinxed it .. whats forecast is simply gonna ‘tear the roof off the sucker’
At least there will be a solid strata layer underneath once this all blows thru.
90 mph eh ? .. better get them cows in the barn.

There have been ugly Holiday ski weeks back as far as we can remember.
There have also been sensational weeks. 1971 comes to mind ..
.. sending it off of Superstar ridge adjacent to hemlock row forever etched in memory

Every day is just one day

[KingsFourMan]

The word Promising in the topic title jinxed it ..

I accept full responsibility for the jinx, I thought the word "promising" instead of "good" would prevent the jinx. I should have known better.

[G-smashed]

I think around 2000 or so we had a great holiday week. I remember 1st tracks down Catwalk on New Year's morning that year. Other years going back to 1980 mostly sucked. This year I'm glad I can't ski anymore.

[Low Rider]

I think around 2000 or so we had a great holiday week. I remember 1st tracks down Catwalk on New Year's morning that year. Other years going back to 1980 mostly sucked. This year I'm glad I can't ski anymore.

I was going to say the same thing - it was not the millennium but maybe 2001 or 2002. My group skied all day New Year’s Eve in the trees. I think that was the powder day. We were so toast that night that none of us made it to the PB for the New Year’s Eve party. Everyone was asleep on the couch by 10:00.

Best New Years ever!

[Bubba]

Christmas week 2002, the winter after I moved to Vermont. We had approximately 30” of snow on Christmas Eve up until early morning of Christmas Day. Many lifts were delayed so they could get them shoveled out. Little if anything was groomed. Christmas Day and most of the rest of the week was outrageous to say the least.