Weekend Outlook

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rogman
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Re: Weekend Outlook

Post by rogman »

Yeah, we call snow-forecast clickbait.com, because 6 days out it calls for 2 feet of snow, and as the week progresses, it typically declines, so by the time the storm arrives it is calling for 2". That said, the Euro is a good model (some would say the best), just not for long range precipitation. However, we aren't (currently) interested in that, but rather temperature. My impression is they're reasonably okay on that, but there's no science behind that, just an opinion.

Lot of people are discussing temperature and humidity as if those were the only things that matter. Surprised no one's posted the chart. :roll: Still, many times we've seen K3000 make snow when the chart says you can't. When you absolutely positively gotta have it, that is still Killington's go to gun. Way back when I was a wet behind the ears engineer I worked with cryostats. We used bottles of liquid nitrogen to cool an infrared detector down near absolute zero. It gives you a healthy appreciation for what the expansion of compressed air can do. Right now Killington has a ton of air, idle compressors, and no snow. You tell me what you think they'll do. Snow making this weekend isn't impossible, just expensive. The louder the gun, the more money its burning. What will work against Killington is the temperature of the water in the snow making ponds: probably pretty warm. Still, much of the energy removal is in the state change from liquid to frozen at 32F.
Last edited by rogman on Oct 31st, '19, 08:07, edited 1 time in total.
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hillbangin
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Re: Weekend Outlook

Post by hillbangin »

snoloco wrote:How did you find out what model they use?
The forecast always matches the euro forecast. Not the noah.

Maybe just coincidence.

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Highway Star
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Re: Weekend Outlook

Post by Highway Star »

We're about due for Killington to be closed on Thanksgiving weekend.
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Seacoaster
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Re: Weekend Outlook

Post by Seacoaster »

Long range into next week is finally looking good. we will be on snow late next week.
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Mister Moose
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Re: Weekend Outlook

Post by Mister Moose »

rogman wrote: Still, many times we've seen K3000 make snow when the chart says you can't. When you absolutely positively gotta have it, that is still Killington's go to gun. Way back when I was a wet behind the ears engineer I worked with cryostats. We used bottles of liquid nitrogen to cool an infrared detector down near absolute zero. It gives you a healthy appreciation for what the expansion of compressed air can do. You see the same thing when running your gas grill: the bottle gets colder. Right now Killington has a ton of air, idle compressors, and no snow. You tell me what you think they'll do. Snow making this weekend isn't impossible, just expensive. The louder the gun, the more money its burning. What will work against Killington is the temperature of the water in the snow making ponds: probably pretty warm. Still, much of the energy removal is in the state change from liquid to frozen at 32F.
Expansion of a gas (PV yada yada) is different than the cooling of a propane bottle (latent heat absorbtion from liquid boiling)

But yeah, Killington seems to always beat the charts when they want to. Newpylong posted recently that the K3000 will take way more than 60cfm if you ask it to.
Last edited by Mister Moose on Oct 30th, '19, 14:34, edited 1 time in total.
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RustyK
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Re: Weekend Outlook

Post by RustyK »

Pickle Barrel reporting snow making on Friday night.

How do they know that?
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snoloco
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Re: Weekend Outlook

Post by snoloco »

Based on the current snow-forecast update, they should be able to make snow all or most of the way from Friday all the way into Monday. I may be overly optimistic on this, but I think they will try to pull off a Sunday afternoon passholder opening. I'd give Sunday 25% probability, Monday 50%, and Tuesday 75%.
winter
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Re: Weekend Outlook

Post by winter »

The good news is that we have a brand new North Ridge camera actually on the North Ridge quad to watch the efforts:

https://www.killington.com/the-mountain ... -ridge-cam
snoloco
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Re: Weekend Outlook

Post by snoloco »

Yes, looks to be mounted right on the drive terminal. I love the new, crystal clear image.
rogman
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Re: Weekend Outlook

Post by rogman »

Nice! No big surprise: K3000s ready to go in the foreground. Of course this camera is going to tip their hat to Sunday River as to when snow making starts. Moot point, since I don't think they have the temps this weekend. I'm still expecting guns to come on sometime in the overnight on Friday. Perhaps shutdown some during the day on Saturday. Production will determine when they actually get open. Good temps and better humidity on Sunday overnight into Monday, so I'd expect Monday at the latest. What's key is there's no big warmup midweek, so there's no point in delaying.

Moose: Facepalm. You're right. I was sloppy in casting about for a good example. I've removed that sentence, rest of my point still stands.
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skiadikt
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Re: Weekend Outlook

Post by skiadikt »

only outside chance for moose in the opening day whine contest ...

yup pretty much a flash freeze tonight as temps plummet from near 60 to upper 20's in about 8 hrs. high winds don't diminish until later in the day so it'll be interesting to see when they throw the switch. borderline whether they can run all day saturday. as said, best window starts overnight sunday. still sticking with monday passholders open.
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da Pimp
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Re: Weekend Outlook

Post by da Pimp »

Love to see a Monday passholders day. Don't see the numbers to make that a reality. NWS at the North Ridge elevation Sunday, Sunday night shows low temps will be mid to upper 20's for only about 8 hours, humidity between 60% and 80%, and windy. Blowing wet snow on wet warm earth if the winds allow it to stay on the trail. Tue and Wed temps never drop to freezing up there.

Maybe they decide to blow as best they can for a short period both North Ridge and Superstar on Sunday night, wait until true snowmaking weather arrives midweek, and resume blasting in earnest. Open on Thur or Fri. By the weekend it will be cold enough to make snow at the bottom of Superstar. Plan on seeing those 100 guns blazing for 24 hours a day when able.

I'm bringing my gear this weekend just in case. By just in case I mean the forecast turns into colder than expected and they open Monday on a 6-8" slush base that will not hold up on Tue/Wed. If they want that opening day date to be Monday and also need to beat out Sunday River, I'll be ready.
snoloco
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Re: Weekend Outlook

Post by snoloco »

The current Snow-Forecast update shows at least 72 hours of snowmaking temps from Friday to Monday. I think they'll try for a Sunday afternoon passholder opening.
hillbangin
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Re: Weekend Outlook

Post by hillbangin »

Brutal - another 200 miles and it could have been a 2 footer!


Tonight r*in. The r*in could be heavy at times. Low around 32. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind around 65 mph, with gusts as high as 80 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
ANGUS
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Re: Weekend Outlook

Post by ANGUS »

hillbangin wrote:Brutal - another 200 miles and it could have been a 2 footer!


Tonight r*in. The r*in could be heavy at times. Low around 32. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind around 65 mph, with gusts as high as 80 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
As my house keeper says. " No me gusta".
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