Weekend Outlook

[Big Bob]

Do you think Killington would allow snowmakers to work in 80 MPH gusts for a futile attempt to blow slush into the woods? My money would be on later in the week, Friday opening?

[Mister Moose]

Do you think Killington would allow snowmakers to work in 80 MPH gusts for a futile attempt to blow slush into the woods? My money would be on later in the week, Friday opening?

When winds are usually lower than forecast, when the work zone is well protected in the trees, when the wind is out of the west and you're blowing downwind, and when you're blowing wet heavy glop that has less hang time, then, maybe yes.

[slatham]

Those high winds are associated with the frontal passage and will decrease post passage as the temps drop. BY Friday night they drop to 30-50 (yeah, high winds but actually very typical for a snowmaker at 4,200' in VT) and a low of 24. The guns will be on.

[newpylong1]

We usually don't bother with sustained winds at 30 MPH or more. However, K has done it before and they likely will again. Those trees on the east side of Rime will take the usual beating early on.

[newpylong1]

Yeah, we call snow-forecast clickbait.com, because 6 days out it calls for 2 feet of snow, and as the week progresses, it typically declines, so by the time the storm arrives it is calling for 2". That said, the Euro is a good model (some would say the best), just not for long range precipitation. However, we aren't (currently) interested in that, but rather temperature. My impression is they're reasonably okay on that, but there's no science behind that, just an opinion.

Lot of people are discussing temperature and humidity as if those were the only things that matter. Surprised no one's posted the chart. Still, many times we've seen K3000 make snow when the chart says you can't. When you absolutely positively gotta have it, that is still Killington's go to gun. Way back when I was a wet behind the ears engineer I worked with cryostats. We used bottles of liquid nitrogen to cool an infrared detector down near absolute zero. It gives you a healthy appreciation for what the expansion of compressed air can do. Right now Killington has a ton of air, idle compressors, and no snow. You tell me what you think they'll do. Snow making this weekend isn't impossible, just expensive. The louder the gun, the more money its burning. What will work against Killington is the temperature of the water in the snow making ponds: probably pretty warm. Still, much of the energy removal is in the state change from liquid to frozen at 32F.

Water temperature is not really an issue as K has cooling towers out of Snowshed.

Snowmax is what helps them make snow when the chart shows red. It's expensive but will buy you a couple degrees. The 600 CFM doesn't hurt though.

[throbster]

I hope Jeff Temple is taking notes.

[Big Bob]

I hope Jeff Temple is taking notes.

He is probably on the floor rolling with laughter after reading all this from the experts on K Zone!

[hillbangin]

I hope Jeff Temple is taking notes.

He is probably on the floor rolling with laughter after reading all this from the experts on K Zone!

Maybe Newpy is Temple?

Anyone seen both of them in the same room?

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[Big Bob]

Jeff lives in Rutland, Newpy lives in NH

[rogman]

I hope Jeff Temple is taking notes.

He is probably on the floor rolling with laughter after reading all this from the experts on K Zone!

I don't see a lot of "advice" being offered here, more just speculation on the weather, when Killington will turn on the guns, and reasoning to back it up. Like most of the people I know at K, Jeff's a good guy, I'm sure he appreciates the interest in his work (which is considerably more extensive than just snow making). Keep in mind that while Killington has better and more detailed forecasts for the mountain than we see, it is still an inexact science. Nobody's forecast a week out is particularly accurate, and when a trend up or down a few degrees makes a go/no go difference it's hard to call.

[rogman]

How did you find out what model they use?

The forecast always matches the euro forecast. Not the noah.

Maybe just coincidence.

Turns out they use the GFS model.
https://www.snow-forecast.com/pages/faq#model

[thebigo]

If K doesnt get open this weekend, you can always head south for some turns. Sugar mountain expects to open on Sunday, only about a 15 hour drive.

http://www.skisugar.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[slatham]

Guns on! Check CAM. Yeah!

[Mister Moose]

Rime.jpg (233.49 KiB) Viewed 971 times

[jimmywilson69]

can someone run back through the thread and figure out who was right and who was wrong?