Trump Presidency

[deadheadskier]

I just look at the the margins in Biden's swing state victories as very slim. Trump supporters were very cocky after 2016 even though the margin of victory was like 90k votes that gave him the EC with his MI, WI and PA wins.

This time around, WI+GA+AZ was only a 44k advantage for Biden. Otherwise it would have been an EC tie I believe. GA and AZ are both changing laws that might reverse those results next time around.

I just can't say there's a strong likelihood that Trump loses in 2024 because the assumed competition is not very strong.

[easyrider16]

You're right, and this is why the EC is such horse sh!t. The popular vote was not really close, with Trump losing by over 7 million votes. Yet because we count by land instead of people, Trump was within 44k votes of winning and over 6 million people's votes are basically ignored. What a nutty system.

[Guy in Shorts]

You're right, and this is why the EC is such horse sh!t. The popular vote was not really close, with Trump losing by over 7 million votes. Yet because we count by land instead of people, Trump was within 44k votes of winning and over 6 million people's votes are basically ignored. What a nutty system.

Nutty system is called the Connecticut Compromise giving small states equal representation. Has worked pretty well for Vermont over the last couple of centuries.

[easyrider16]

Yeah, a compromise inked nearly 250 years ago based on an outdated and outmoded concepts. What exactly has it done for VT lately?

In the last 100 years, sitting presidents have visited Vermont exactly 4 times. I tried looking up comparable numbers for Massachusetts, but what I found is that there are so many visits that it's hard to track. I mean the town of Salem, MA has more Presidential visits than the entire state of VT for the last 100 years. I realize presidential visits alone don't tell the whole story, but they surely suggest that relatively speaking, Presidents care a lot less about Vermont than they do other, more populous areas, the EC notwithstanding.

https://localbound.wordpress.com/2012/0 ... e-history/
https://patch.com/massachusetts/salem/u ... s-in-salem

I do wonder what Republicans would think about the EC if it handed any democrats a win despite achieving only a minority of overall votes. That aside, given the EC has only thwarted the popular vote twice in the last 25 or so presidential elections, what's the point? You'd have had the same end result 92% of the time had you counted the popular vote versus the EC vote. And don't tell me it's because you want Presidential campaigns to pay attention to small states. Just based on my numbers above, that's bunk. But even if you don't buy that, the reality is that candidates pay way more attention to a handful of swing states with significant population (e.g. WI, PA, OH, FL) than they do small states like VT and WY. Frankly, the EC seems to be having the opposite of its intended effect - it's focusing candidates on a small handful of states to the exclusion of the other 50.

[XtremeJibber2001]

But even if you don't buy that, the reality is that candidates pay way more attention to a handful of swing states with significant population (e.g. WI, PA, OH, FL) than they do small states like VT and WY.

I'm a little bias living in PA so I appreciate the extra attention. Also nice to have a vote that can sway an entire election (like this year) ... one might say finding a POTUS based on popular vote would make all votes more meaningful. Voting R in NY is pretty meaningless.

[easyrider16]

I live in MA, so my presidential vote hasn't meant anything since I was eligible. And many of those votes were for a guy with an (R) behind his name.

[XtremeJibber2001]

I just look at the the margins in Biden's swing state victories as very slim. Trump supporters were very cocky after 2016 even though the margin of victory was like 90k votes that gave him the EC with his MI, WI and PA wins.

This time around, WI+GA+AZ was only a 44k advantage for Biden. Otherwise it would have been an EC tie I believe. GA and AZ are both changing laws that might reverse those results next time around.

I just can't say there's a strong likelihood that Trump loses in 2024 because the assumed competition is not very strong.

The reason I said No above is because I don't think the GOP trot him out as a candidate. We're already seeing McConnell support Murkowski over Trump's pick of Tshibaka. $02 expect the GOP to do to Trump what the DNC did to Bernie ... he's been a loser for the GOP. This could change if there's a red wave in 2022 ....

[deadheadskier]

I'd argue that the GOP already tried in 2016 to thwart Trump WAY more than the DNC has the past two cycles with Bernie. Almost all of the other GOP candidates were united against him except for maybe Christie.

Trump crushed them all. If he runs again in 2024, I expect the same results. His cult following is still large enough for him to win the nomination.

Name one person who would seriously challenge him?

I'd love to see the GOP run people like Ben Sasse. That moderate and principled GOP majority is mostly gone IMO.

[easyrider16]

I wonder how many independents will vote in the Republican primary for 2024. Last year neither side had an incumbent, so I imagine independents split fairly equally among the primaries. In 2024 I would imagine the independents would gravitate to the Republican primary since the Democrats would have an incumbent guaranteed to win. Would that make a difference? Some of the polling suggests that while Trump is popular among Republicans, a large segment does not necessarily want him to remain the head of the party. If you add independents to the mix, maybe he has trouble securing the nomination in 2024?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/12/a-large ... urvey.html

[boston_e]

I wonder how many independents will vote in the Republican primary for 2024. Last year neither side had an incumbent, so I imagine independents split fairly equally among the primaries. In 2024 I would imagine the independents would gravitate to the Republican primary since the Democrats would have an incumbent guaranteed to win. Would that make a difference? Some of the polling suggests that while Trump is popular among Republicans, a large segment does not necessarily want him to remain the head of the party. If you add independents to the mix, maybe he has trouble securing the nomination in 2024?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/12/a-large ... urvey.html

Here in Massachusetts we are fairly unique though where someone registered as unenrolled (independent) can choose either a D or R ballot on the day of a primary election. I don't think most states are like that.

[easyrider16]

I believe in any state that has primaries you can re-register as either party so long as you do it before an arbitrary deadline. So for instance in Florida, you can update your voter registration to either party so long as you do it 29 days before the primary election. Open primary states make it even easier to vote in either primary, but it's still possible to do it in closed primary states. It does take work though so I'm not sure how many independents really bother.

[XtremeJibber2001]

Name one person who would seriously challenge him?

Maybe DeSantis?

[deadheadskier]

That's a big maybe. He's certainly gotten a lot of national attention in the past year for his handling of Covid in a manner less restrictive than many other states, but he only won the 2018 Florida election by 33k votes.

I still think it's Trump's race to lose.

[XtremeJibber2001]

That's a big maybe. He's certainly gotten a lot of national attention in the past year for his handling of Covid in a manner less restrictive than many other states, but he only won the 2018 Florida election by 33k votes.

I still think it's Trump's race to lose.

Depending on the direction of the party I could also see Liz Cheney. Today she’d probably be cast as a RINO tho.

[Bubba]

That's a big maybe. He's certainly gotten a lot of national attention in the past year for his handling of Covid in a manner less restrictive than many other states, but he only won the 2018 Florida election by 33k votes.

I still think it's Trump's race to lose.

Depending on the direction of the party I could also see Liz Cheney. Today she’d probably be cast as a RINO tho.

In today’s Republican Party, if you’re not with Trump you’re against him. With the cultist believing base, that makes you toast in the primaries.