NSR: Corona Virus - You Can Start Panicking Now

[buckethead]

^^ thank god there's no shortage of irony

[XtremeJibber2001]

How can you be prepared for a unknown virus?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/us/p ... break.html

WASHINGTON — The outbreak of the respiratory virus began in China and was quickly spread around the world by air travelers, who ran high fevers. In the United States, it was first detected in Chicago, and 47 days later, the World Health Organization declared a pandemic. By then it was too late: 110 million Americans were expected to become ill, leading to 7.7 million hospitalized and 586,000 dead.

That scenario, code-named “Crimson Contagion” and imagining an influenza pandemic, was simulated by the Trump administration’s Department of Health and Human Services in a series of exercises that ran from last January to August.

[Highway Star]

Separately, and wondering what HS, SB, and other think of this:

Aside from this thread on K Zone [thanx so much for the wealth of info], the only place I have been going is the daily Situation Report on the World Health Organization site. If nothing else:

- Updated report available once a day [10:00 or 11:00 pm EST it is available]. It is a quick download PDF.
- Most of the info / data is repeated, in same form, so easy to see changes each day.
- Great bar chart, by world area, of number new cases each day. Easy to see trends [e.g., Europe and Americas are skyrocketing now].
- Report contains a few bullets each day with "outbreaking news".
- I like it's simplicity. Need to understand that "new cases" numbers are only "confirmed" ones, for example.

At any rate, figured I'd put this out for general info [easy to find on WHO website - coupla clicks to find the Situation Reports] and/or anyone's thoughts on it.

Thanks, I'm following Reddit, the main corona sub reddits and the MA and NYC.

[Highway Star]

I was just told by an NYC hospital CMO that testing is about to be cutback, including closing the New Rochelle testing center, due to shortages of supplies like paper gowns and masks, so prioritizing supplies for hospital and care centers. They’ll be estimating case numbers based on sick patients. Crazy stuff.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

THIS:

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloa ... 202020.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Dear Colleagues, We are in a challenging time as the COVID-19 pandemic rapidly accelerates in New York City. Healthcare providers will need to make critical decisions that are far different than the normal practice of medicine and will likely require applying different standards of care during the next several weeks to months. Learning from the experience of our colleagues in other countries hardest hit by COVID-19, and watching the pandemic unfold in NYC, impacts on our healthcare system will continue to worsen. As the number of persons requesting testing for COVID-19 increases, the supply of personal protective equipment (PPE) diminishes. Many healthcare facilities are experiencing high patient volumes that willlikely increase in the coming days and weeks. There are few options available to find N95 respirators and surgical masks along with other PPE. Healthcare resources must be saved to treat the sickest
patients who require inpatient and critical care.

-----

To preserve PPE for HCW providing medically necessary care for hospitalized patients, the NYC Health Department is directing healthcare facilities to IMMEDIATELY STOP TESTING NON-HOSPITALIZED PATIENTS FOR COVID-19 unless test results will impact the clinical management of the patient. In
addition, do not test asymptomatic people, including HCWs or first responders. COVID-19 testing is only indicated for HOSPITALIZED PATIENTS.

Their BOLD CAPS, not mine. Seriously.

I highlighted the weeks to months part.

[Highway Star]

Good summary NYC for yesterday. There is a slight drop off in new cases but that may have to do with reduced outpatient testing.

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloa ... ummary.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Highway Star]

Real doomer stuff here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comm ... _february/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So. I work in the tech industry in the Seattle area -- Kirkland WA, in fact, a few miles from the first outbreak.

I have a coworker from Wuhan. This isn't terribly unusual since I work for a company based in Asia. Wuhan is a big city with 11 million people -- bigger than London.

Back at the end of January, China was reporting that about 200 people had died to date. But they were also taking EXTREME measures -- the videos coming out were showing them welding people into their apartment buildings, piling up body bags, absolutely overwhelmed hospitals, etc.

All because of 200 people dying?

So I asked my co-worker how her family was doing, and she told me that everyone was quiet and a little scared but hanging in there (in quarantine). And she mentioned that her kids had lost a beloved great Uncle, which was a bit sad.

OK. So here's how I became a Doomer. Because given a random coworker from Wuhan over in the United States, what are the odds that she would have a relative among the 200 dead?

Well it's simple: the odds are 200 out of 11 million, which is fifty-five thousand to one. But people have on average, what, 20 extended family members in the graph that reaches to Great Uncle? So let's divide it by twenty.

That's still twenty-five hundred to one odds that she would have a relative who had passed from Covid-19, given the official Chinese numbers.

Yeah. I'm a pretty lucky guy, but I'm not the kind of guy who casually shrugs off 2500-to-1 coincidence.

[Highway Star]

Not sure of the details, but something is going on:

https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 2962183168" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Highway Star]

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/21/faa ... issue.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://heavy.com/news/2020/03/new-york ... a-guardia/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/21/ ... -airports/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[SnoBrdr]

How can you be prepared for a unknown virus?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/us/p ... break.html

WASHINGTON — The outbreak of the respiratory virus began in China and was quickly spread around the world by air travelers, who ran high fevers. In the United States, it was first detected in Chicago, and 47 days later, the World Health Organization declared a pandemic. By then it was too late: 110 million Americans were expected to become ill, leading to 7.7 million hospitalized and 586,000 dead.

That scenario, code-named “Crimson Contagion” and imagining an influenza pandemic, was simulated by the Trump administration’s Department of Health and Human Services in a series of exercises that ran from last January to August.

A whole lot of nothing there.

How could they have a test, of any kind when they knew not what they were facing.

[SnoBrdr]

Talking about pushing a panic situation.

Other airports have done the same in the past week or so.

[Highway Star]

Talking about pushing a panic situation.

Other airports have done the same in the past week or so.

Hey just keeping on top of things.

[daytripper]

Already reopened.

[SnoBrdr]

The US Food and Drug Administration announced it has approved the use of the first rapid diagnostic test that could detect coronavirus in approximately 45 minutes.

The authorization was made Friday and tests will begin shipping next week, according to a statement from California-based Cepheid, the company manufacturing the tests.

[Highway Star]

HUH.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/ ... 890376001/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[XtremeJibber2001]

How can you be prepared for a unknown virus?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/us/p ... break.html

WASHINGTON — The outbreak of the respiratory virus began in China and was quickly spread around the world by air travelers, who ran high fevers. In the United States, it was first detected in Chicago, and 47 days later, the World Health Organization declared a pandemic. By then it was too late: 110 million Americans were expected to become ill, leading to 7.7 million hospitalized and 586,000 dead.

That scenario, code-named “Crimson Contagion” and imagining an influenza pandemic, was simulated by the Trump administration’s Department of Health and Human Services in a series of exercises that ran from last January to August.

A whole lot of nothing there.

How could they have a test, of any kind when they knew not what they were facing.

Despite simulating a pandemic, we were still unprepared.

- initial outbreak in China was reported on December 31
- Jan 10 the virus' genome had been sequenced
- Germany had a test developed by Jan 17
- WHO shipped 250k test kits to laboratories Feb 6
- First test was available in the USA Feb 4 (two weeks after COVID arrived in Washington State)
- CDC confirmed half of the tests were bad Feb 12
- USA had 3 labs with a verified CDC test for use by end of Feb
- FDA permitted hospitals to develop their own test Feb 29

We’re the most powerful and advanced nation in the World. How is it that Korea, Australia, Germany, Singapore, etc. were weeks ahead of us with testing?!