thanksgiving condition?

[ringer9cs]

Dear friends,

For the weather forecasts we have seen so far, what condition should we expect for the 2006 thanksgiving weekend? Better than 2005 t-day? Worse? Grass skiing?

Historically, has K ever been closed on t-day?

[Bubba]

It's a crapshoot...seriously. T-Day can have loads of open terrain, including Great Eastern down to the Skye Ship base like they did several years ago, or it could be pouring r*in and essentially closed, like it's also been. It could also be anywhere in between. You can count on it being fairly crowded, however, because there's generally only limited terrain here and everywhere else that early in the season and Friday and especially Saturday of T-Day weekend can be mob scenes.

Stay tuned for updates.

[Gangsta Rider]

There is no way Great eastern to the base of gondola is gonna be open this year for TG

[Bubba]

There is no way Great eastern to the base of gondola is gonna be open this year for TG

Didn't mean to imply it would be, merely stating that it has happened before.

[ringer9cs]

Thanks. Just wondering if it's worth the driving all the way from Philadelphia. Most likely I'll give it a shot. Can't wait to ski!

[Bubba]

Thanks. Just wondering if it's worth the driving all the way from Philadelphia. Most likely I'll give it a shot. Can't wait to ski!

I wouldn't make any firm plans. Finding a place to stay on T-Day weekend at the last minute shouldn't be terribly difficult given that we haven't even gotten open yet.

[Highway Star]

Dear friends,

For the weather forecasts we have seen so far, what condition should we expect for the 2006 thanksgiving weekend? Better than 2005 t-day? Worse? Grass skiing?

Historically, has K ever been closed on t-day?

My money's on DIRT, and being closed, at this point, but absolutely anything could happen.

[b-5]

by the time T-day rolls around just about every other mtn will be open(God willing and the weather plays nice-nice)
Why not head north and ski places like sugarbush and stowe?
Killington can become a zoo on T-day...

[Geoff]

Dear friends,

For the weather forecasts we have seen so far, what condition should we expect for the 2006 thanksgiving weekend? Better than 2005 t-day? Worse? Grass skiing?

Historically, has K ever been closed on t-day?

Thanksgiving, 1999, Killington was only running the Glades triple and Rime had dirt in every trough. I remember standing at the top of Rime after uploading on the Canyon Quad laughing. There were only a few people skiing and the place really should have been closed. I took 3 runs and bailed. It was horrible.

That's the worst I remember in my 25 Killington years.

[b-5]

Dear friends,

For the weather forecasts we have seen so far, what condition should we expect for the 2006 thanksgiving weekend? Better than 2005 t-day? Worse? Grass skiing?

Historically, has K ever been closed on t-day?

Thanksgiving, 1999, Killington was only running the Glades triple and Rime had dirt in every trough. I remember standing at the top of Rime after uploading on the Canyon Quad laughing. There were only a few people skiing and the place really should have been closed. I took 3 runs and bailed. It was horrible.

That's the worst I remember in my 25 Killington years.

same conditions durring race week(two weeks later)...at the base there was a sign that stated "Some Walking required"
We changed it to read "Some Skiing Required"

Yeah we're a funny lot.

[thebigo]

Thanksgiving day last season was one of my best days of the year, but iirc the weekend went downhill fast after thursday.

If it was me coming up from philly to stay at killington I would delay the trip to later in the year. If thats not an option I would book a southwest flight out to SLC or Denver.

[Mister Moose]

Just for the fun of it, I researched some historical data.

Temperature trends for Oct - Dec since 1960:



Not much global warming going on. Steady to slight decrease in mean temps for the region.

Mean temperatures for VSF, Springfield, Vermont (closest I could find to Rutland). Mean is in blue, last year low is green, last year high is in red.



I would assign KBL about 7 degrees F cooler due to elevation and being a touch further north. The mean low temp now for KBL is about 21 F, and the mean high 38F.

Look at how the swings on average are 10 F, and go as high as 20F higher than mean. This is classic behavior. This time of year you will only get short periods of cold, followed by warm ups.

You either commit to making snow and losing some, or you don't.

By Dec 1, the mean high for KBL is at 30F, and you start keeping most of the snow you make. Notice the 3rd week of November last year was cold, followed by a warm up to 60 degrees. Is that predictable? Nope. You take your lumps.

The typical temperature lapse rate is 4 degrees F per 1,000 feet. This is a large part of why the rockies (Breck base is 9,700) hold snow so much better than Denver (5,280 or 18F difference), and why we all dream of early season in the Glades. They will consistently be 5-7 degrees colder than the base. (inversions excepted). On average, you can open in the glades 2 full weeks sooner than KBL.

What is 2 weeks early season revenue? Will it pay for a lift addition or modification to get from Glades unload to K-1 terminal? How much image, press coverage and reputation is gained opening 2 weeks earlier?

The only thing I can conclude looking at the graph of last year is the winter was warmer than normal, especially in January and a week in February. Predicting how long the warm ups last and when they will come is pure speculation.

7 day forecasts are junk, offered by TV stations to get you to watch. 10 day forecasts a la weather.com are boldface lies based on some computer's idea of a 'trend'.

My forecast for Thanksgiving: Partly cloudy, high of 35 degrees. See? Anybody can do it.

Given the ever present swings in cold/warm cycles, you pick a start date, and then blow snow every opportunity in between warm ups. Everything else is just spin. Rent a guru if you like for inside track on the weather, but weather 'surprises' just seem to keep on happening.

<end>

[XtremeJibber2001]

Best post of the year MM!!

Yea, global warming

[Snowjob]

Uh - Channel 7 is hiring right now. Looks like you'd be a great candidate!

[Highway Star]

Just for the fun of it, I researched some historical data.

Temperature trends for Oct - Dec since 1960:



Not much global warming going on. Steady to slight decrease in mean temps for the region.

Mean temperatures for VSF, Springfield, Vermont (closest I could find to Rutland). Mean is in blue, last year low is green, last year high is in red.



I would assign KBL about 7 degrees F cooler due to elevation and being a touch further north. The mean low temp now for KBL is about 21 F, and the mean high 38F.

Look at how the swings on average are 10 F, and go as high as 20F higher than mean. This is classic behavior. This time of year you will only get short periods of cold, followed by warm ups.

You either commit to making snow and losing some, or you don't.

By Dec 1, the mean high for KBL is at 30F, and you start keeping most of the snow you make. Notice the 3rd week of November last year was cold, followed by a warm up to 60 degrees. Is that predictable? Nope. You take your lumps.

The typical temperature lapse rate is 4 degrees F per 1,000 feet. This is a large part of why the rockies (Breck base is 9,700) hold snow so much better than Denver (5,280 or 18F difference), and why we all dream of early season in the Glades. They will consistently be 5-7 degrees colder than the base. (inversions excepted).

On average, you can open in the glades 2 full weeks sooner than KBL.

What is 2 weeks early season revenue? Will it pay for a lift addition or modification to get from Glades unload to K-1 terminal? How much image, press coverage and reputation is gained opening 2 weeks earlier?

The only thing I can conclude looking at the graph of last year is the winter was warmer than normal, especially in January and a week in February. Predicting how long the warm ups last and when they will come is pure speculation.

7 day forecasts are junk, offered by TV stations to get you to watch. 10 day forecasts a la weather.com are boldface lies based on some computer's idea of a 'trend'.

My forecast for Thanksgiving: Partly cloudy, high of 35 degrees. See? Anybody can do it.

Given the ever present swings in cold/warm cycles, you pick a start date, and then blow snow every opportunity in between warm ups. Everything else is just spin. Rent a guru if you like for inside track on the weather, but weather 'surprises' just seem to keep on happening.

<end>

Wow.

Wow. Wow.

I can only answer that, with this.....................



A. K-1 Gondola, Peak Lodge.
Base Elevation: 2510 ft
Top Elevation: 4100 ft

B. Canyon Quad.
Base Elevation: 2830 ft
Top Elevation: 4015 ft

C. Summit Triple.
Base Elevation: 3395 ft
Top Elevation: 4165 ft
Vertical Drop: 770 ft
Length: 2860 ft

D. Killington Glacier Triple
Base Elevation: 3810 ft
Top Elevation: 4110 ft
Vertical Drop: 300 ft
Length: 1000 ft

WHITE: Skiing terrain available off Summit Triple - Nov. 1st to May 15th
BLUE: Skiing terrain available off Killington Glacier Triple - Oct. 1st to June 30th
YELLOW: Refrigerated ski slopes with summer snowmaking. Skiing Year Round.