Economy is much better?
- tyrolean_skier
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Economy is much better?
I don't think so at least in the financial industry. One of the top traders in my firm was let go this morning. He was a guy that I worked closely with. I know that he was in the process of buying a new home in NJ for his growing family. I suspect that he will now have to cancel that contract. I've heard that he was not the only one. Wonder how long my job is safe?
"Much better"? Probably not
It's been a sluggish recovery, and according to a recent Society for Human Resource Management survey on job creation, the rate of new job creation has declined slightly. We're almost back to neutral when the number of new jobs equals the number lost = neutral growth.
Two of the strongest areas have been home sales and consumer spending, but interest rates are rising and will impact those areas.
Some other concerns:
- The dollar is at an all-time low against the Euro ($1.33 to 1 Euro)
- The government debt is starting to weigh down investment, plus 91% of debt purchased over the last 4 years has been bought outside of the US.
- Business spending has been increasing only marginally; the last boom was really driven by business spending
- Real income has not been keeping pace with expenses; for many, any wage increases have been absorbed by costs such as health care
Some positives:
- At least the economy continues to grow
- Inflation has been low
- The market has been coming back (and its up big today)
- Unemployment is low, especially compared to most European countries
Now, if it only would snow....
It's been a sluggish recovery, and according to a recent Society for Human Resource Management survey on job creation, the rate of new job creation has declined slightly. We're almost back to neutral when the number of new jobs equals the number lost = neutral growth.
Two of the strongest areas have been home sales and consumer spending, but interest rates are rising and will impact those areas.
Some other concerns:
- The dollar is at an all-time low against the Euro ($1.33 to 1 Euro)
- The government debt is starting to weigh down investment, plus 91% of debt purchased over the last 4 years has been bought outside of the US.
- Business spending has been increasing only marginally; the last boom was really driven by business spending
- Real income has not been keeping pace with expenses; for many, any wage increases have been absorbed by costs such as health care
Some positives:
- At least the economy continues to grow
- Inflation has been low
- The market has been coming back (and its up big today)
- Unemployment is low, especially compared to most European countries
Now, if it only would snow....
Which boom? The big bubble that burst in June of 2000 that was created by stock market speculation? You call that business spending? LOL!Scotty K wrote:"Much better"?
- Business spending has been increasing only marginally; the last boom was really driven by business spending
One great sign of the economy and business investment has been the vacancy rate in cities like New York and DC. It is nearly impossible to find large blocks of quality space. Financial firms have taken subl;ease space off the market and are reoccupying shadow space. Very good sign that companies are investing in themselves again.
Re: Economy is much better?
I hate when they start laying off... I always wonder if my badge is going to work at the gate...tyrolean_skier wrote:I don't think so at least in the financial industry. One of the top traders in my firm was let go this morning. He was a guy that I worked closely with. I know that he was in the process of buying a new home in NJ for his growing family. I suspect that he will now have to cancel that contract. I've heard that he was not the only one. Wonder how long my job is safe?
Last edited by Pedro on Dec 6th, '04, 11:31, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Economy is much better?
Funniest thing I ever heard at UBS. Our former department head comes back from lunch. Tries to log in. Can't get in. Calls IT and they tell him he has been terminated.Pedro wrote:I hate when they start laying off... I always wonder if weather my badge is going to work at the gate...tyrolean_skier wrote:I don't think so at least in the financial industry. One of the top traders in my firm was let go this morning. He was a guy that I worked closely with. I know that he was in the process of buying a new home in NJ for his growing family. I suspect that he will now have to cancel that contract. I've heard that he was not the only one. Wonder how long my job is safe?
- tyrolean_skier
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- Joined: Nov 4th, '04, 23:28
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Re: Economy is much better?
The guy that got the axe here was also surprised that they terminated him. He was in charge of a few traders. The reason for his layoff I was told was that his salary and compensation were high and they needed to cut expenses so they cut him. A co-worker spoke with him today and he is still in shock. Apparently he got a 5 months package so he is relaxing right now because he knows that at this time of the year the hiring process slows down considerably due to the holidays.CAPBOY wrote:Funniest thing I ever heard at UBS. Our former department head comes back from lunch. Tries to log in. Can't get in. Calls IT and they tell him he has been terminated.Pedro wrote:I hate when they start laying off... I always wonder if weather my badge is going to work at the gate...tyrolean_skier wrote:I don't think so at least in the financial industry. One of the top traders in my firm was let go this morning. He was a guy that I worked closely with. I know that he was in the process of buying a new home in NJ for his growing family. I suspect that he will now have to cancel that contract. I've heard that he was not the only one. Wonder how long my job is safe?
Geoff wrote:At $349, maybe a whole lot of unemployed people were skiing this weekend.Atomic1 wrote:if the crowds at K this weekend were any indication of the economy then I would say things are looking GOOD
If all those Escalade's and Suburbans in the parking lots are owned by the unemployed than I better quit my job.
Seriously all the bars/resturants were packed as were the ski shops<where I had footbeds made AND bought my daughter a new pair of boots.>
OH,and the womens and mens outfits in the liftlines all looked like $$$$ to me!
At least we know what the majority of people did with the $ they saved on their pases
Exactly! Cheap tickets boost the revenues to the retail and hospitalities.Atomic1 wrote:Geoff wrote:At $349, maybe a whole lot of unemployed people were skiing this weekend.Atomic1 wrote:if the crowds at K this weekend were any indication of the economy then I would say things are looking GOOD
If all those Escalade's and Suburbans in the parking lots are owned by the unemployed than I better quit my job.
Seriously all the bars/resturants were packed as were the ski shops<where I had footbeds made AND bought my daughter a new pair of boots.>
OH,and the womens and mens outfits in the liftlines all looked like $$$$ to me!
At least we know what the majority of people did with the $ they saved on their pases
I too was able to upgrade to a yugo this year.....Thank you 349 Pass!CAPBOY wrote:Exactly! Cheap tickets boost the revenues to the retail and hospitalities.Atomic1 wrote:Geoff wrote:At $349, maybe a whole lot of unemployed people were skiing this weekend.Atomic1 wrote:if the crowds at K this weekend were any indication of the economy then I would say things are looking GOOD
If all those Escalade's and Suburbans in the parking lots are owned by the unemployed than I better quit my job.
Seriously all the bars/resturants were packed as were the ski shops<where I had footbeds made AND bought my daughter a new pair of boots.>
OH,and the womens and mens outfits in the liftlines all looked like $$$$ to me!
At least we know what the majority of people did with the $ they saved on their pases
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Just like cutting taxes across the board results in increased revenue to the government because of increased economic activity. Thank you JFK and Ronald Regan, you guys got it right.CAPBOY wrote:Exactly! Cheap tickets boost the revenues to the retail and hospitalities.
Cogito, ergo sum
Sometimes it is that simple.
Sometimes it is that simple.