2008-09 Skier Visits Down But Just Above 10 Year Average

[Bubba]

U.S. Ski Industry Tallies 5.5% Fewer Visits in 2008-09

Marco Island, FL - Preliminary estimates released Friday by the National Ski Areas Association (NSAA), whose members are meeting this week in Marco Island, Fla., indicate that ski areas across the U.S. tallied 57.1 million visits for the 2008-09 season, a 5.5 percent decrease from the record 60.5 million skier visits logged in 2007-08. 2008-09 was nonetheless the country's fifth best ski and snowboard season on record.

Figures from 2008-09 represent a 0.8 percent increase over the 10-year average of 56.7 million skier visits annually since 1999. At 13.8 million visits in 2008-09, the Northeast region was up 5.5 percent from its 10-year average. Meanwhile the Southeast region, at 5.62 million visits, was up 3.8 percent from its 10-year average; the Midwest region, with 7.41 million visits, was down 1.1 percent from its 10-year average; the Rocky Mountain region, with 19.79 million visits, was up 1.3 percent from its 10-year average; and finally the Pacific West region, with 10.54 million visits, was down 5.8 percent from its 10-year average, representing the region with the greatest erosion.

Relatively favorable snow and weather conditions in most parts of the country during much of the season provided a strong counterbalance to the challenging economic conditions. Based on resort comments, the impact of the economy varied somewhat depending on resort location and resort type. Many day-ski areas in close proximity to major metropolitan markets benefited as many guests chose to ski and ride at locations closer to home. Meanwhile destination resorts often reported fewer overnight visits and shorter stays.

Leaders of many resorts commented that snow and weather conditions had a more powerful impact on their visitation than the economy. Overall average snowfall was down just 10 percent. The Southeast realized a 31.2 percent increase in average snowfall; the Midwest was up 1.1 percent; the Northeast was down 10 percent; the Pacific West was down 10.2 percent; and the Rocky Mountain region was down 14.2 percent.

The NSAA will release a final report detailing the 2008-09 ski and snowboard season in July.

[rogman]

There's enough verbiage in that skier visits release to confuse a CPA...
Nationally:
5.5% decrease from last year
0.8% above 10 year average.

Northeast:
5.5% above 10 year average

The very fact that they are doing comparisons against a 10 year average is telling. This ain't no growth industry. Which means that market share is everything. The only way you can grow is if someone else gets smaller. And in that environment, Killington gave away market share to improve yield. Short term gain, long term pain. I'm not sure how they'll recover. They have church built for Easter Sunday, and suddenly everyone has converted to Judaism.

[trtaylor]

“Real estate,” Jensen said. “That’s where the cheese moved and we have no idea where it went. Our existing inventory will have to be sold at whatever price the market will pay for it. I personally believe discounts will be 30 percent.”

Kircher said, “The concept of real estate defining a resort is gone, probably for our lifetime.”

Ski Industry Leaders Discuss The Lessons of 2008-09

[laseranimal]

don't worry it's all good

[skiadikt]

There's enough verbiage in that skier visits release to confuse a CPA...
Nationally:
5.5% decrease from last year
0.8% above 10 year average.

Northeast:
5.5% above 10 year average

The very fact that they are doing comparisons against a 10 year average is telling. This ain't no growth industry. Which means that market share is everything. The only way you can grow is if someone else gets smaller. And in that environment, Killington gave away market share to improve yield. Short term gain, long term pain. I'm not sure how they'll recover. They have church built for Easter Sunday, and suddenly everyone has converted to Judaism.

this yield thing is overated. sure when they eliminated the A41 pass they increased yield but judging by some of the late season cheapo deals looks like they were more concerned with fannies in the seats than yield.

[Geoff]

this yield thing is overated. sure when they eliminated the A41 pass they increased yield but judging by some of the late season cheapo deals looks like they were more concerned with fannies in the seats than yield.

If you can get everybody to pay $100/day to ski at a ski resort, it's not overated.

The problem at Killington is pretty simple. It's a seedy run-down ski area. The access road is a blight. The base lodges are a disaster. The customer service is terrible. You can't increase the yield if you don't have the value proposition since people will just go elsewhere. The 'cheapo deals' this year clearly acknowlege that reality. If they actually fixed some of that to improve the value proposition, their yield would probably improve.

[JerseyGuy]

this yield thing is overated. sure when they eliminated the A41 pass they increased yield but judging by some of the late season cheapo deals looks like they were more concerned with fannies in the seats than yield.

If you can get everybody to pay $100/day to ski at a ski resort, it's not overated.

The problem at Killington is pretty simple. It's a seedy run-down ski area. The access road is a blight. The base lodges are a disaster. The customer service is terrible. You can't increase the yield if you don't have the value proposition since people will just go elsewhere. The 'cheapo deals' this year clearly acknowlege that reality. If they actually fixed some of that to improve the value proposition, their yield would probably improve.

See, this is why the Giant New Killington New Jersey Base Village Multiplex Sprawl-o-Matic will solve all of their problems!

[Bubba]

this yield thing is overated. sure when they eliminated the A41 pass they increased yield but judging by some of the late season cheapo deals looks like they were more concerned with fannies in the seats than yield.

If you can get everybody to pay $100/day to ski at a ski resort, it's not overated.

The problem at Killington is pretty simple. It's a seedy run-down ski area. The access road is a blight. The base lodges are a disaster. The customer service is terrible. You can't increase the yield if you don't have the value proposition since people will just go elsewhere. The 'cheapo deals' this year clearly acknowlege that reality. If they actually fixed some of that to improve the value proposition, their yield would probably improve.

See, this is why the Giant New Killington New Jersey Base Village Multiplex Sprawl-o-Matic will solve all of their problems!

You know, I'm not sure even Chris Nyberg believes that.

[JerseyGuy]

Northeast:
5.5% above 10 year average

Jeez... using this "make it look pretty" statistic, can you imagine how far off Killington was from their "10 year average"?

10%? 20%? 30%?

That's OK, though. I'm sure their yield per skier has increased by the same amount, right?

[rogman]

I thought Win's question was telling

In response to a question from Win Smith of Sugarbush Resort in Vermont, the CEOs discussed pricing and discounts.

Boyd said, “The death knell of the golf industry was a discounting war. These are times when people tend to panic, and that’s the worst time to be making decisions about pricing. If you get into a discounting situation, you’re going to create a discounting war, and all these people who are coming are going to come anyway and all you’re doing is driving down your yield.”

Kaplan said, “Look at cannibalization vs. new business. Our experience with discounts was the experience we feared: maximum cannibalization.”

Once one resort goes discount, the others have to follow suit. Killington definitely was offering a lot more deals this year as did other areas. How much of that was simply due to the economic situation, and how much was due to competitive pressure, I don't know, but it was definitely out there.

If I were John Cumming, I'd be soooo jealous of my neighbor Deer Valley. They have their "Giant New Jersey Base Village Multiplex Sprawl-o-Matic", and I'll bet their pass sales guarantee them a rich profit before they even spin the lifts. However, Vermont isn't Utah, and Killington needs its walk-up day sales, and will for the foreseeable future.

[Geoff]

If I were John Cumming, I'd be soooo jealous of my neighbor Deer Valley. They have their "Giant New Jersey Base Village Multiplex Sprawl-o-Matic", and I'll bet their pass sales guarantee them a rich profit before they even spin the lifts. However, Vermont isn't Utah, and Killington needs its walk-up day sales, and will for the foreseeable future.

Mom used to have season passes at Deer Valley for a bunch o' years. From observation, they don't sell a heck of a lot of season passes. The way the economics of their season pass work, most of those trophy home owners ski on day tickets since they're only getting 15 ski days per year. A couple one week trips and maybe a long weekend here & there. If you're in Salt Lake City, chances are you're going to opt for AltaBird (best snow & terrain), Brighton (cheapest), or The Canyons (inexpensive pass and easy access). I only ever skied one day at Park City Mtn Resort so I don't have a sense for what they do for season passes. I doubt they sell many. I thought the place sucked so I'll bet their business model is ski week people on day tickets and lift + lodging deals.

[biged]

this yield thing is overated. sure when they eliminated the A41 pass they increased yield but judging by some of the late season cheapo deals looks like they were more concerned with fannies in the seats than yield.

If you can get everybody to pay $100/day to ski at a ski resort, it's not overated.

The problem at Killington is pretty simple. It's a seedy run-down ski area. The access road is a blight. The base lodges are a disaster. The customer service is terrible. You can't increase the yield if you don't have the value proposition since people will just go elsewhere. The 'cheapo deals' this year clearly acknowlege that reality. If they actually fixed some of that to improve the value proposition, their yield would probably improve.

Geoff thats not the problem with Killington. I don't care about base lodges. I don't care about customer service, unless you include ridiculous rope/closed trail policies. I ski Killington because it has the best terrain closest to my semi metropolitian area. What made killington great? What do you remember about Killington? The mogul challenge, skiing in June, skiing in October not remembering how I got back to the ski house from the Wobble (note Wobble from 15-20 years ago).

[rogman]

this yield thing is overated. sure when they eliminated the A41 pass they increased yield but judging by some of the late season cheapo deals looks like they were more concerned with fannies in the seats than yield.

If you can get everybody to pay $100/day to ski at a ski resort, it's not overated.

The problem at Killington is pretty simple. It's a seedy run-down ski area. The access road is a blight. The base lodges are a disaster. The customer service is terrible. You can't increase the yield if you don't have the value proposition since people will just go elsewhere. The 'cheapo deals' this year clearly acknowlege that reality. If they actually fixed some of that to improve the value proposition, their yield would probably improve.

Geoff thats not the problem with Killington. I don't care about base lodges. I don't care about customer service, unless you include ridiculous rope/closed trail policies. I ski Killington because it has the best terrain closest to my semi metropolitian area. What made killington great? What do you remember about Killington? The mogul challenge, skiing in June, skiing in October not remembering how I got back to the ski house from the Wobble (note Wobble from 15-20 years ago).

You're not their target market. They all ski at Okemo and Stratton, and they're all going to leave there and come to Killington as soon as POWDR finishes gussying up the pig. You'd be amazed what a little lipstick can do. The terrain is a problem, however. It'll have to be bulldozed and flattened.

[Geoff]

this yield thing is overated. sure when they eliminated the A41 pass they increased yield but judging by some of the late season cheapo deals looks like they were more concerned with fannies in the seats than yield.

If you can get everybody to pay $100/day to ski at a ski resort, it's not overated.

The problem at Killington is pretty simple. It's a seedy run-down ski area. The access road is a blight. The base lodges are a disaster. The customer service is terrible. You can't increase the yield if you don't have the value proposition since people will just go elsewhere. The 'cheapo deals' this year clearly acknowlege that reality. If they actually fixed some of that to improve the value proposition, their yield would probably improve.

Geoff thats not the problem with Killington. I don't care about base lodges. I don't care about customer service, unless you include ridiculous rope/closed trail policies. I ski Killington because it has the best terrain closest to my semi metropolitian area. What made killington great? What do you remember about Killington? The mogul challenge, skiing in June, skiing in October not remembering how I got back to the ski house from the Wobble (note Wobble from 15-20 years ago).

You're not their target market. They all ski at Okemo and Stratton, and they're all going to leave there and come to Killington as soon as POWDR finishes gussying up the pig. You'd be amazed what a little lipstick can do. The terrain is a problem, however. It'll have to be bulldozed and flattened.

That's why they don't blow snow on Devil's Fiddle. Out of shape accountants from Fairfield County don't ski that terrain. Low skill twin tippers and the dangly-suspenders & bandana park rats don't ski that terrain.

As Rogman points out, those Stratton and Okemo people are never going to come here since Killington will never be family-friendly and the terrain is too intimidating. The ex-Killington people now at Sunday River ain't never gonna come back. The advanced skiers Win Smith got to move 40 miles farther north are gone forever. Killington always appealed to partying advanced skiers who wanted the 7 month season and didn't want to drive the extra distance to get to the better surface and terrain farther north in Vermont. Bumps, trees, ungroomed natural snow terrain, groomed steeps. If you shrink the season, don't make snow on all the terrain for your core customer base, and kill the party (the death of BMMC, stupidly huge booze prices in the base lodge, the massive police presence on the Access Road), your core base vaporizes.

[lilywhite]

Well, I got PO'd enough to primarily ski Slowkemo last year. Was ok as it was all new terrain to me, but not really my fancy.
Did my skiing at K this year, but pathetically less than I would have liked to.
K simply has not come to the plate. Still undecided for next season because of it.

this yield thing is overated. sure when they eliminated the A41 pass they increased yield but judging by some of the late season cheapo deals looks like they were more concerned with fannies in the seats than yield.

If you can get everybody to pay $100/day to ski at a ski resort, it's not overated.

The problem at Killington is pretty simple. It's a seedy run-down ski area. The access road is a blight. The base lodges are a disaster. The customer service is terrible. You can't increase the yield if you don't have the value proposition since people will just go elsewhere. The 'cheapo deals' this year clearly acknowlege that reality. If they actually fixed some of that to improve the value proposition, their yield would probably improve.

Geoff thats not the problem with Killington. I don't care about base lodges. I don't care about customer service, unless you include ridiculous rope/closed trail policies. I ski Killington because it has the best terrain closest to my semi metropolitian area. What made killington great? What do you remember about Killington? The mogul challenge, skiing in June, skiing in October not remembering how I got back to the ski house from the Wobble (note Wobble from 15-20 years ago).

You're not their target market. They all ski at Okemo and Stratton, and they're all going to leave there and come to Killington as soon as POWDR finishes gussying up the pig. You'd be amazed what a little lipstick can do. The terrain is a problem, however. It'll have to be bulldozed and flattened.

That's why they don't blow snow on Devil's Fiddle. Out of shape accountants from Fairfield County don't ski that terrain. Low skill twin tippers and the dangly-suspenders & bandana park rats don't ski that terrain.

As Rogman points out, those Stratton and Okemo people are never going to come here since Killington will never be family-friendly and the terrain is too intimidating. The ex-Killington people now at Sunday River ain't never gonna come back. The advanced skiers Win Smith got to move 40 miles farther north are gone forever. Killington always appealed to partying advanced skiers who wanted the 7 month season and didn't want to drive the extra distance to get to the better surface and terrain farther north in Vermont. Bumps, trees, ungroomed natural snow terrain, groomed steeps. If you shrink the season, don't make snow on all the terrain for your core customer base, and kill the party (the death of BMMC, stupidly huge booze prices in the base lodge, the massive police presence on the Access Road), your core base vaporizes.