Cap-Ex

[rogman]

Spent most of the day struggling with CAPEX plans... I think it will be good. Stay tuned...

So what do we have for the contestants, Johnny?

[rogman]

I voted that I expect to see a new HSQ for Snowdon, mostly because I like busting Moose's balls.

[tt431]

If I was in charged a new peak lodge would my next logical upgrade. I don't know what the status of the snowmaking system currently is but unless you are adding snowmaking to new trails, I consider those snow making improvements just maintenance.

PS. You forgot mulch.

[Nevada West]

[skiadikt]

snow triple with mid-station for early season.

[Highway Star]

Spent most of the day struggling with CAPEX plans... I think it will be good. Stay tuned...

So what do we have for the contestants, Johnny?

I think he really, really wants to do the Interconnect. Plus some new mulch for the peak lodge.

[rogman]

Spent most of the day struggling with CAPEX plans... I think it will be good. Stay tuned...

So what do we have for the contestants, Johnny?

I think he really, really wants to do the Interconnect. Plus some new mulch for the peak lodge.

I like the old mulch. It never needs de-icing. It just sits there quietly mulching.
Respectfully submitted,
rogman, Secretary,
Save the Peak Lodge Mulch Society

[powdayvt]

I remember reading an article in the Rutland Business Journal back in the Fall about how Nyberg was "optimistic" about the Peak Lodge and Interconnect happening with 5 years... Just sayin'

[mediamogul]

Maybe they will go Mt. Ellen style and leave Pico au natural for next season...

No but seriously one vote for a HSQ for Snowdon i.e. them ruining the character of the entire mountain. Then probably increased snow making over there too to handle increased skier density followed by grooming of Northstar, Vagabond and Great Bear.

Sad business.

[Ski_the_Moguls]

I voted for a Snowden High Speed Quad because I think it is most likely. However, I would prefer to see the interconnect finally happen. I am tired of hearing Sugarloaf talking about being the biggest in the East now. Come on Killington, get that title back!

[rogman]

I voted for a Snowden High Speed Quad because I think it is most likely. However, I would prefer to see the interconnect finally happen. I am tired of hearing Sugarloaf talking about being the biggest in the East now. Come on Killington, get that title back!

Their claim is one of the reasons I don't like Boyne. Too often they are more marketing hype than reality. What they've added so far in Bracket Basin appears large, but in reality the useful skiable area is pretty small (and the tree stumps they left are lethal, but that's another story). Sugarloaf is a fun mountain (I skied there four or five days this year), but it doesn't ski large to me. Take a Sugarloaf trail map and fold it in half horizontally. Now tear off the bottom half and throw it away. What you are left with is the terrain with any pitch. Now I'm not saying there isn't good skiing on the lower half, just nothing that will cause even an intermediate to break a sweat. There are a few interesting trails on that half, but it's really just run outs.

As for the Cap-Ex it comes down to how much JC wants to put into Killington this year; remember, he's already announced a new lift for Copper. I think you can figure these sorts of numbers:
HSQ for Snowdon: 4 million
Peak Lodge: 16 million
Something else: less than 4 million (otherwise it would be the HSQ)
Snow making, etc.: 2 million (Superstar redo?)
You'll get nothing: less than 1 million (they can't just let the place fall down)

Keep in mind that the first four will also require additional money for other long term items and upgrades that can't be deferred another year, so add a million or so (the "You'll get nothing") for those choices. Peak Lodge is probably too soon, they were still picking an architect last November. "Something Else", we'd have heard. So I expect either HSQ or Snow Making (It may be nothing, but they'll never frame it that way). Wring your hands all you want about the demise of Snowdon, the quad will happen, it's just a matter of when. I look forward to it.

The part that has me puzzled about this season is despite the increase in skier visits, POWDR has cut costs to the bone in the latter half of the season. For example, no snowmaking during President's Week, and they are now opening the Bear Quad at 9AM on weekends. Anyone else notice the lack of ticket checkers? Little things, but from a long term, business building perspective, none of these moves makes much sense, well, unless the joint is up for sale, in which case the whole point is to absolutely max out the short term numbers. However, I have no reason to believe that's the case. It could also be something as simple as Nyberg gets a bigger bonus if EBITDA exceeds some threshold, and he's on the cusp. Trying to understand the POWDR decision making process is a bit of a fool's errand.

[Geoff]

The part that has me puzzled about this season is despite the increase in skier visits, POWDR has cut costs to the bone in the latter half of the season. For example, no snowmaking during President's Week, and they are now opening the Bear Quad at 9AM on weekends. Anyone else notice the lack of ticket checkers? Little things, but from a long term, business building perspective, none of these moves makes much sense, well, unless the joint is up for sale, in which case the whole point is to absolutely max out the short term numbers. However, I have no reason to believe that's the case. It could also be something as simple as Nyberg gets a bigger bonus if EBITDA exceeds some threshold, and he's on the cusp. Trying to understand the POWDR decision making process is a bit of a fool's errand.

I wonder what the interest payments for Copper look like. Unlike ASC where the company was public and we could see the financials, POWDR is private. We have no clue if they are on the financial ropes. This could very well be ASC v2.0.

[ataglance]

I voted for a Snowden High Speed Quad because I think it is most likely. However, I would prefer to see the interconnect finally happen. I am tired of hearing Sugarloaf talking about being the biggest in the East now. Come on Killington, get that title back!

Their claim is one of the reasons I don't like Boyne. Too often they are more marketing hype than reality. What they've added so far in Bracket Basin appears large, but in reality the useful skiable area is pretty small (and the tree stumps they left are lethal, but that's another story). Sugarloaf is a fun mountain (I skied there four or five days this year), but it doesn't ski large to me. Take a Sugarloaf trail map and fold it in half horizontally. Now tear off the bottom half and throw it away. What you are left with is the terrain with any pitch. Now I'm not saying there isn't good skiing on the lower half, just nothing that will cause even an intermediate to break a sweat. There are a few interesting trails on that half, but it's really just run outs.

As for the Cap-Ex it comes down to how much JC wants to put into Killington this year; remember, he's already announced a new lift for Copper. I think you can figure these sorts of numbers:
HSQ for Snowdon: 4 million
Peak Lodge: 16 million
Something else: less than 4 million (otherwise it would be the HSQ)
Snow making, etc.: 2 million (Superstar redo?)
You'll get nothing: less than 1 million (they can't just let the place fall down)

Keep in mind that the first four will also require additional money for other long term items and upgrades that can't be deferred another year, so add a million or so (the "You'll get nothing") for those choices. Peak Lodge is probably too soon, they were still picking an architect last November. "Something Else", we'd have heard. So I expect either HSQ or Snow Making (It may be nothing, but they'll never frame it that way). Wring your hands all you want about the demise of Snowdon, the quad will happen, it's just a matter of when. I look forward to it.

The part that has me puzzled about this season is despite the increase in skier visits, POWDR has cut costs to the bone in the latter half of the season. For example, no snowmaking during President's Week, and they are now opening the Bear Quad at 9AM on weekends. Anyone else notice the lack of ticket checkers? Little things, but from a long term, business building perspective, none of these moves makes much sense, well, unless the joint is up for sale, in which case the whole point is to absolutely max out the short term numbers. However, I have no reason to believe that's the case. It could also be something as simple as Nyberg gets a bigger bonus if EBITDA exceeds some threshold, and he's on the cusp. Trying to understand the POWDR decision making process is a bit of a fool's errand.

For the last couple of years Nyberg has been doing everything he can come up with to save his job. I don't think bonus has any bearing on these decisions. The Nyberg power base exists only on the mountain and not in Utah. His giant ego is at stake and if he can't suck out some capital improvements by reduction in expenses it will be mulch and crow on the menu. I would think he has a contract and that's why he is at the helm.
If they fail to make money and not just increase visits his contract will be his only salvation; anyone think it will be renewed?

[JerseyGuy]

I voted for a Snowden High Speed Quad because I think it is most likely. However, I would prefer to see the interconnect finally happen. I am tired of hearing Sugarloaf talking about being the biggest in the East now. Come on Killington, get that title back!

Their claim is one of the reasons I don't like Boyne. Too often they are more marketing hype than reality. What they've added so far in Bracket Basin appears large, but in reality the useful skiable area is pretty small (and the tree stumps they left are lethal, but that's another story). Sugarloaf is a fun mountain (I skied there four or five days this year), but it doesn't ski large to me. Take a Sugarloaf trail map and fold it in half horizontally. Now tear off the bottom half and throw it away. What you are left with is the terrain with any pitch. Now I'm not saying there isn't good skiing on the lower half, just nothing that will cause even an intermediate to break a sweat. There are a few interesting trails on that half, but it's really just run outs.

As for the Cap-Ex it comes down to how much JC wants to put into Killington this year; remember, he's already announced a new lift for Copper. I think you can figure these sorts of numbers:
HSQ for Snowdon: 4 million
Peak Lodge: 16 million
Something else: less than 4 million (otherwise it would be the HSQ)
Snow making, etc.: 2 million (Superstar redo?)
You'll get nothing: less than 1 million (they can't just let the place fall down)

Keep in mind that the first four will also require additional money for other long term items and upgrades that can't be deferred another year, so add a million or so (the "You'll get nothing") for those choices. Peak Lodge is probably too soon, they were still picking an architect last November. "Something Else", we'd have heard. So I expect either HSQ or Snow Making (It may be nothing, but they'll never frame it that way). Wring your hands all you want about the demise of Snowdon, the quad will happen, it's just a matter of when. I look forward to it.

The part that has me puzzled about this season is despite the increase in skier visits, POWDR has cut costs to the bone in the latter half of the season. For example, no snowmaking during President's Week, and they are now opening the Bear Quad at 9AM on weekends. Anyone else notice the lack of ticket checkers? Little things, but from a long term, business building perspective, none of these moves makes much sense, well, unless the joint is up for sale, in which case the whole point is to absolutely max out the short term numbers. However, I have no reason to believe that's the case. It could also be something as simple as Nyberg gets a bigger bonus if EBITDA exceeds some threshold, and he's on the cusp. Trying to understand the POWDR decision making process is a bit of a fool's errand.

For the last couple of years Nyberg has been doing everything he can come up with to save his job. I don't think bonus has any bearing on these decisions. The Nyberg power base exists only on the mountain and not in Utah. His giant ego is at stake and if he can't suck out some capital improvements by reduction in expenses it will be mulch and crow on the menu. I would think he has a contract and that's why he is at the helm.
If they fail to make money and not just increase visits his contract will be his only salvation; anyone think it will be renewed?

Welcome back to the East Coast.

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see if you're right.

[KBL Ed]

Peak Lodge: 16 million

WTF! How did you come up with that number? Are they hinting at a full tear-down and rebuild? I thought they couldn't build anything new, due to the environmental restrictions in place.

This could very well be ASC v2.0.

Except in this case, 2.0 is not an improvement.