Opening Day?

[skiballz]

They should open the Grand pool before they open Northridge. Just wait for the cold to roll in. They're doing the right thing. Would have wasted so many resources.

[skiadikt]

At this point, I've lost all confidence. In the past, I'm sure they would've gone for it. Now, I'm not so sure. It's a completely different standard now. They are way more picky about when to make snow, and they don't seem to care about when they open or with how much terrain. Expect a bare minimum effort, until at least after the world cup, if it isn't cancelled. And if it is cancelled, expect budget cuts like last year.

gone for what???? to be open for a couple days at best. by thursday, you'd be looking at bare ground in the NR. as far as this "past" you keep talking about - the last time when they opened & closed was 2015. 9 years ago. i'm sure the financial aspect of snowmaking is a big part but just as big is the staffing. they don't wanna start the clock so to speak by bringing folks in for a couple days and then "lay them off".

and i'm pretty sure that at the end of the day - when snowmaking season is over - they will have made more snow, have more terrain (even if the rollout lags) and continue expanding later than anyone else because that's what they've always done.

as far as the WC, they lose money on it so it'll mean more money to spend elsewhere in addition to concentrating all resources on public skiing.

and here's the jordan bowl webcam. noticed the lift was turning so folks could ski that last patch .

jordan.png

"Going for it" obviously means making 8 hours of marginal snow so some kid who lives 2 hours away who is clueless about both the economics and technicalities of operating a ski area can feel better about the situation.

and i get where the kid (i assume he's a kid) is coming from. i remember back in the early 80's skiing upper cascade off the k chair on something like oct 10 (it was "snirt" and might have closed the next day) and skiing downdraft on memorial day (place was empty. practically had it myself). it did make quite an impression on a "younger" skiadikt and eventually influenced my move up here from the catskills (really a no brainer).

but those were different times. in 1997 the K1 changed everything. tried truckin' for a couple seasons. punted on that. and since the stairs, they did the open/close thing maybe 3 times. now expectations are higher. the whole thing is lot more complicated between snowmaking budgets and staffing etc. most folks seem to understand it. loco doesn't ...

[slatham]

Models starting to show some cold shots. First couple look relatively short but it’ll get the guns on. Good chance they go this weekend, more significant cold around 15th. Overall pattern still poor.

[rogman]

Right now there is a high pressure area over Bermuda (AKA, the Bermuda High) that is clockwise cycling warm air up from the south. Until it dissipates or decides to move east towards the Azores, the unseasonably warm weather will persist and there will be no snow making. Unfortunately, It doesn't look like it's budging for the foreseeable future.

Killington has said in the past that they need 100 hours of good snow making weather for the World Cup. The "snow control" decision is about a week out from the event, but it's based both on what's already laid down and what can be accomplished in the remaining time. That's a little over two weeks from now, and a lot can change. It's a huge expense to put together the venue, and the build out needs to start soon. There are already a lot of sunk costs, and those expenses will rapidly escalate. Are there additional checkpoints before then where they can scrub? Is there a substantial savings to bailing early, or are the costs already committed and locked in? My guess is its like a wedding: vendors get most of their money up front so Killington'll keep pushing. Right now Mother Nature is being most contrary, and given the forecasts, the concern has to be real. Just got to hope they forecasts are wrong.

[asher2789]

At this point, I've lost all confidence. In the past, I'm sure they would've gone for it. Now, I'm not so sure. It's a completely different standard now. They are way more picky about when to make snow, and they don't seem to care about when they open or with how much terrain. Expect a bare minimum effort, until at least after the world cup, if it isn't cancelled. And if it is cancelled, expect budget cuts like last year.

last year was unique because the mountain was for sale. with new ownership thats not expecting a return on investment for at least a decade and are locked in from selling until then, i dont think your 'sky is falling' narrative is true.

the weather has just been awful. im in killington nearly everyday. they havent had enough of the right weather for long enough. it is warm.

[Bubba]

At this point, I've lost all confidence. In the past, I'm sure they would've gone for it. Now, I'm not so sure. It's a completely different standard now. They are way more picky about when to make snow, and they don't seem to care about when they open or with how much terrain. Expect a bare minimum effort, until at least after the world cup, if it isn't cancelled. And if it is cancelled, expect budget cuts like last year.

last year was unique because the mountain was for sale. with new ownership thats not expecting a return on investment for at least a decade and are locked in from selling until then, i dont think your 'sky is falling' narrative is true.

the weather has just been awful. im in killington nearly everyday. they havent had enough of the right weather for long enough. it is warm.

No sense in pointing out the obvious to him. He’s gone well beyond rational thought.

[snoloco]

I will concede that this is their first opportunity to open and stay open, and that any attempt earlier would not have been continuous operation. I wanted to see them compete with Sunday River for bragging rights, and I was, and still am pissed that they didn't. I'm skeptical about snowmaking efforts given the last 3 years. I hope they can turn things around.

[Bubba]

I will concede that this is their first opportunity to open and stay open, and that any attempt earlier would not have been continuous operation. I wanted to see them compete with Sunday River for bragging rights, and I was, and still am pissed that they didn't. I'm skeptical about snowmaking efforts given the last 3 years. I hope they can turn things around.

Why do their bragging rights mean so much to you?

[Fluffhead]

And still unable to comprehend the weather was different in Maine.

[Stormchaser]

I will concede that this is their first opportunity to open and stay open, and that any attempt earlier would not have been continuous operation. I wanted to see them compete with Sunday River for bragging rights, and I was, and still am pissed that they didn't. I'm skeptical about snowmaking efforts given the last 3 years. I hope they can turn things around.

Killington used to blow snow at any opportunity even if it melted away. It was their marketing gig. Call it a money loser, call it money well spent, call it what you want, but it was what supported Killington's brand. Now their marketing gig is the World Cup. That's their current money loser. They evidently can't do both, and in their eyes the better brand is ski racing. It gets them on TV before a larger audience and still showcases their snowmaking abilities. I don't see it changing anytime soon, but not being able to hold the race due to lack of snow would be a pretty big dagger.

[easyrider16]

I think there's a paradigm change with new ownership. I heard Mike talking on a podcast and he was saying with the installation of a new Superstar lift, they likely won't be able to host the world cup next year. When asked if they'd resume holding world cups after that, he said the equivalent of, "we'll see." And then when you hear him talking about snow making, he basically just says their goal is to get open at the earliest possible time when they can actually stay open for continuing operations.

I think these new owners aren't as interested in gimmicky loss-leader marketing. They would rather invest in infrastructure to provide the best guest experience possible. They don't need to drive constantly expanding sales because they have no shareholders to answer to, no dividends to pay, and no loans to pay off. From that perspective, there's no need to blow a bunch of snow that's just going to melt away to create skier porn for guys like Snoloco to get off. Being fake-news first to open isn't nearly as compelling as providing the longest season in the east.

As for the world cup, I think the primary issue going forward is not whether it's "good marketing" but rather whether it is something people continue to enjoy as a resort experience. I think the varnish is coming off the event a little bit so it wouldn't surprise me if they took off more than a 1 year hiatus. In fact I hope they do because the money spent on that event is better spent elsewhere to improve the resort.

[newpylong1]

I agree 100% however I don't think that the varnish is coming off the actual event per se, but how putting it on effects the product for the public.

In my mind they have 3 options:

-Status quo: Host the event at the detriment of the product elsewhere
-Stop hosting the event
-Keep the event but make the investment required to get a solid product for the public in parallel

This year and next with the new equipment and reduction of air consumption should provide a new baseline of what they are capable of with the current system.

[skiadikt]

first of all, suspect starting tonite we see them all in on snowmaking and who knows maybe if we get enough cooperation from mama nature, our skis touch snow this week.

and yes the "gimmick" open is a thing of the past. they have conceded that battle. mike has stated numerous times that when they open, they wanna stay open. and i could be wrong but believe they've usually been the first to offer continuous operation for what that's worth.

on the other hand the WC is an enormous buzz. a global event. 30,000 people show up to spectate. they have the greatest skiers in the world, on tv 2 days in a row in addition to lots of media coverage. blows away whatever scant "bump" they get from opening for 2 days in october for a bunch of freaks. kudos on SR for getting their 15 min of fame for opening for 4 hrs for passholders only. and technically ski ward beat them.

the longest season is probably more important than the first thing. no one comes close there. also being open june 1 gets a lot more "pop" than oct 26. when casuals think about where they wanna go in february, june could be an influencing factor there.

to newpy's point about investing to provide to get a solid product elsewhere prior to WC - not sure that's necessarily a priority. it'll probably happen at some point just because the system is old and to keep up w others who've made the investment. whatever folks wanna say about the system, pretty sure by t-giving day, they've made more snow than anyone else. just not for the public. so as far as they're concerned, they're "fine". and other than last season, the public is skiing that snow 5 days after event.

[rogman]

The investment in 1000 snow guns offers immediate payback. The number I heard was three years, and their thinking was do it ASAP. Other investments don’t offer such quick and obvious benefits. Lifts and Lodges are tangible products that attract a buzz, so presumably create an uptick in business and improve efficiency so it’s reasonable to anticipate that SS is just the beginning. What I’d love to hear about are plans for snow making infrastructure improvements. Piping, pumps, compressors, the Woodward aqueduct, capacity, all of it. It won’t sell tickets but it’s vital.

I find it interesting that they scrapped the idea of moving SS. Suggests they aren’t all in on the FIS and the World Cup. A healthy balance where both parties benefit is good. Still, their investment in four permanent fan guns at the bottom of Superstar only makes sense if they plan to continue to host the World Cup. They represent the best bet for making snow in marginal, early season, conditions. Not necessary for the late season build out.

[Bubba]

I think the village has a lot to do with the value of early season "marketing snow". The people spending a million dollars plus on village real estate are not the people who will be dying to put skis to snow in October and/or early November, nor are the early season diehards the main customer base for the village. (You can look at it either way.) Going forward, get used to opening when they can stay open but continuing to close as late as possible. And, if the village is a key driver, then having the WC is a plus and should stay as a major event, if for no other reason than marketing real estate.