Trump Presidency

[asher2789]

I never said he would be removed for incompetence or at all for that matter. I just said it was more likely that his own party removes him than that the military supports him in imposing a dictatorship. I think the former is unlikely and the latter has a snowball's chance in hell.

And my take on this issue has nothing to do with faith in the system. It has to do with my belief that Trump is so utterly incompetent that he couldn't subvert democracy if he tried.

i agree that if hes ever removed it would be by his own party. hes already on his way to imposing a dictatorship, whether the military goes along with it is another story. i dont have faith. this shouldnt even be a matter of faith, this shouldnt be happening at all!

also you dont take into account that any day now he can decide to deputize his 1/6 brown shirts that he freed when he was reelected. theres a whole lot of paramilitary support for him. thats the real threat, not the people who signed up for the military because of family tradition, desire to serve or no other economic option.

in iraq, the main abusers were not the military, but the private military contractors. if one were to make a venn diagram between the blackwater boys and the paramilitaries, theyd likely be a circle.

[Skid Mark]

god are fascists bad at humor. dont quit your day job to do stand up comedy unless you want tomatoes thrown at ya.

[easyrider16]

whether the military goes along with it is another story.

It can't be done without the military. Full stop.

also you dont take into account that any day now he can decide to deputize his 1/6 brown shirts that he freed when he was reelected. theres a whole lot of paramilitary support for him.

Any U.S. paramilitary would easily be crushed by the U.S. military. The key question is what the U.S. military would do if Trump tried to seize power. If he did it in a way that made it look legitimate, and Congress supported him, I think the military would likely fall in line. If Trump did it in a way that defied the courts and congress, he'd be arrested and removed in less than 24 hours.

I do not think Trump is competent to do it in a way that would make it look legitimate. He'd need a constitutional amendment, a way to rig the election where he isn't immediately caught and exposed, and the support of Congress and SCOTUS. He's not capable of doing all these things.

[XtremeJibber2001]

whether the military goes along with it is another story.

It can't be done without the military. Full stop.

also you dont take into account that any day now he can decide to deputize his 1/6 brown shirts that he freed when he was reelected. theres a whole lot of paramilitary support for him.

Any U.S. paramilitary would easily be crushed by the U.S. military. The key question is what the U.S. military would do if Trump tried to seize power. If he did it in a way that made it look legitimate, and Congress supported him, I think the military would likely fall in line. If Trump did it in a way that defied the courts and congress, he'd be arrested and removed in less than 24 hours.

I do not think Trump is competent to do it in a way that would make it look legitimate. He'd need a constitutional amendment, a way to rig the election where he isn't immediately caught and exposed, and the support of Congress and SCOTUS. He's not capable of doing all these things.

Unless the Dems have a majority in the house and senate, one should assume Congress will support him no matter what he does. I don't think the courts are a reliable defense.

It's really a question of will he or won't he. I think we know the answer. The answer we don't know is if he will be successful or unsuccessful.

If Trump is successful in carrying out even just one attack against a foe, whether using police, military and/or paramilitary or some other way it will be too late. GOP congressional members will have no choice but to support Trump in order to protect their lives and that of their families. He will be successful and we have empirical evidence to support this conclusion.

The worst part? We will let him.

[easyrider16]

Unless the Dems have a majority in the house and senate, one should assume Congress will support him no matter what he does. I don't think the courts are a reliable defense.

It's more complicated than this - his term ends in 2028. Constitutionally he can't run again. In order to legitimize that, he'll need not just Congress, but a Constitutional amendment, which requires 3/4's of state's approval - an impossible bar. If he just tries to stay or rig the election in a very obvious way, the incoming candidate will be declared the winner by SCOTUS and/or Congress. The military will not follow Trump's orders, they'll follow the orders of the candidate declared winner by SCOTUS and/or Congress. That candidate would order Trump to be arrested and removed, and there's no amount of paramilitary force Trump can command that would be able to resist the U.S. military.

If Trump is successful in carrying out even just one attack against a foe, whether using police, military and/or paramilitary or some other way it will be too late. GOP congressional members will have no choice but to support Trump in order to protect their lives and that of their families. He will be successful and we have empirical evidence to support this conclusion.

I think his own party would remove him if he tried to assassinate anyone. All those GOP senators don't really like him, remember. This kind of thing would be a bridge too far. If Trump used force to try to control Congress, the states would revolt. Imagine California, Massachusetts, New York, and others mobilizing their national guard to protect their congressional delegations. You'd have a civil war, and the military would need to be involved - they would not take Trump's side.

Trump can do a lot of damage and violate a lot of people's rights before his time is up. That's the unfortunate truth. But he's just not capable of overthrowing democracy. I'm not saying it's impossible, just that Trump is too incompetent to pull it off. BTW, I think Trump is well aware that he couldn't pull this off, and he therefore will not try. He might pave the way for the person who eventually does, however.

[XtremeJibber2001]

Unless the Dems have a majority in the house and senate, one should assume Congress will support him no matter what he does. I don't think the courts are a reliable defense.

It's more complicated than this - his term ends in 2028. Constitutionally he can't run again. In order to legitimize that, he'll need not just Congress, but a Constitutional amendment, which requires 3/4's of state's approval - an impossible bar. If he just tries to stay or rig the election in a very obvious way, the incoming candidate will be declared the winner by SCOTUS and/or Congress. The military will not follow Trump's orders, they'll follow the orders of the candidate declared winner by SCOTUS and/or Congress. That candidate would order Trump to be arrested and removed, and there's no amount of paramilitary force Trump can command that would be able to resist the U.S. military.

Let me start by saying it's unlikely any of this actually happens, but we've never been here before.

Would the US military, at a new Democrat POTUS direction on January 20, order Trump arrested if he wouldn't leave? Hegseth would make this awfully messy as he'll be the 'acting official' for Sec Def on inauguration day. You don't think Hegseth would give conflicting orders to the military, some of which may not have the means to receive POTUS orders directly? How would military men and women know what orders to obey? Hegseth would direct any soldiers disobeying commanders orders to be cuffed and sent to the brig straight away.

Do you think these band of brothers would take action against one another? Dividing units in half - one following POTUS orders and the other following their commanders / Sec Def? Do you really think they'd carry this out ... attacking their brothers in arms who they likely spent boot camp together and years with their brothers families and kids? I think some would take a stand, but once it's clear they're in the minority ... well then we have a crisis.

Hegseth is in the position he's in for a reason and I've yet to hear one that makes sense. Trump has everything to gain and little to lose by giving this a go.

If Trump is successful in carrying out even just one attack against a foe, whether using police, military and/or paramilitary or some other way it will be too late. GOP congressional members will have no choice but to support Trump in order to protect their lives and that of their families. He will be successful and we have empirical evidence to support this conclusion.

I think his own party would remove him if he tried to assassinate anyone. All those GOP senators don't really like him, remember. This kind of thing would be a bridge too far. If Trump used force to try to control Congress, the states would revolt. Imagine California, Massachusetts, New York, and others mobilizing their national guard to protect their congressional delegations. You'd have a civil war, and the military would need to be involved - they would not take Trump's side.

Trump can do a lot of damage and violate a lot of people's rights before his time is up. That's the unfortunate truth. But he's just not capable of overthrowing democracy. I'm not saying it's impossible, just that Trump is too incompetent to pull it off. BTW, I think Trump is well aware that he couldn't pull this off, and he therefore will not try. He might pave the way for the person who eventually does, however.

See above. None of it matters if he creates a crisis and folks are on his side - we were a lot closer than folks wish to admit on January 6.

A lot of what you and I are saying relies on the hearts of men - very unpredictable.

Unfortunately, after January 6, I can't confidently say our military would not be on Trump's side.

[easyrider16]

Let me start by saying it's unlikely any of this actually happens, but we've never been here before.

Would the US military, at a new Democrat POTUS direction on January 20, order Trump arrested if he wouldn't leave? Hegseth would make this awfully messy as he'll be the 'acting official' for Sec Def on inauguration day. You don't think Hegseth would give conflicting orders to the military, some of which may not have the means to receive POTUS orders directly? How would military men and women know what orders to obey? Hegseth would direct any soldiers disobeying commanders orders to be cuffed and sent to the brig straight away.

I think Hegseth would get laughed out of the Pentagon. He is not respected.

Do you think these band of brothers would take action against one another? Dividing units in half - one following POTUS orders and the other following their commanders / Sec Def? Do you really think they'd carry this out ... attacking their brothers in arms who they likely spent boot camp together and years with their brothers families and kids? I think some would take a stand, but once it's clear they're in the minority ... well then we have a crisis.

It depends and obviously this is a hypothetical, but I think officers would simply refuse to obey orders they saw as illegal. I think it would happen all up and down the line. This isn't just an issue of replacing a general or two - the U.S. military is decentralized and puts emphasis on independent decision making by low-level commanders. Most of these folks are also highly capable people that could have great careers outside the armed forces, but choose to stay in because they believe in something. I just don't see that many of them voluntarily following a despot.

Hegseth is in the position he's in for a reason and I've yet to hear one that makes sense. Trump has everything to gain and little to lose by giving this a go.

Sure but this is where the competence problem comes in. If you want to control the U.S. military, you've got to do more than just replace the SecDef. You need to replace officers all up and down the line, probably down to the battalion level. Or you could do what some totalitarian regimes do and create a political officer corps so each commander down to battalion level gets an enforcer who makes sure orders are followed. This would take a lot of time and effort. This administration? I doubt they have the patience or the capacity to do this.

Anything can happen. But if you look at the history of despots that have seized power, they are usually highly capable people that earned the respect of the people who do the grunt work for them. Trump doesn't have this. He never has.

[XtremeJibber2001]

Trump's ABC News interview where he insisted MS-13, as shown below, is actually the tattoo on Kilmar Ábrego García's hand.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTv7WiYmBec

Untitled.jpg (27.25 KiB) Viewed 102 times

[asher2789]

whether the military goes along with it is another story.

It can't be done without the military. Full stop.

also you dont take into account that any day now he can decide to deputize his 1/6 brown shirts that he freed when he was reelected. theres a whole lot of paramilitary support for him.

Any U.S. paramilitary would easily be crushed by the U.S. military. The key question is what the U.S. military would do if Trump tried to seize power. If he did it in a way that made it look legitimate, and Congress supported him, I think the military would likely fall in line. If Trump did it in a way that defied the courts and congress, he'd be arrested and removed in less than 24 hours.

I do not think Trump is competent to do it in a way that would make it look legitimate. He'd need a constitutional amendment, a way to rig the election where he isn't immediately caught and exposed, and the support of Congress and SCOTUS. He's not capable of doing all these things.

i dont think you take into account a schism in the military and you dont take into account hes already defying courts and nothing happens. its not super likely but its also nothing i ever expected out of any previous president like i do from trump.

[asher2789]

Unless the Dems have a majority in the house and senate, one should assume Congress will support him no matter what he does. I don't think the courts are a reliable defense.

It's more complicated than this - his term ends in 2028. Constitutionally he can't run again. In order to legitimize that, he'll need not just Congress, but a Constitutional amendment, which requires 3/4's of state's approval - an impossible bar. If he just tries to stay or rig the election in a very obvious way, the incoming candidate will be declared the winner by SCOTUS and/or Congress. The military will not follow Trump's orders, they'll follow the orders of the candidate declared winner by SCOTUS and/or Congress. That candidate would order Trump to be arrested and removed, and there's no amount of paramilitary force Trump can command that would be able to resist the U.S. military.

If Trump is successful in carrying out even just one attack against a foe, whether using police, military and/or paramilitary or some other way it will be too late. GOP congressional members will have no choice but to support Trump in order to protect their lives and that of their families. He will be successful and we have empirical evidence to support this conclusion.

I think his own party would remove him if he tried to assassinate anyone. All those GOP senators don't really like him, remember. This kind of thing would be a bridge too far. If Trump used force to try to control Congress, the states would revolt. Imagine California, Massachusetts, New York, and others mobilizing their national guard to protect their congressional delegations. You'd have a civil war, and the military would need to be involved - they would not take Trump's side.

Trump can do a lot of damage and violate a lot of people's rights before his time is up. That's the unfortunate truth. But he's just not capable of overthrowing democracy. I'm not saying it's impossible, just that Trump is too incompetent to pull it off. BTW, I think Trump is well aware that he couldn't pull this off, and he therefore will not try. He might pave the way for the person who eventually does, however.

youre hung up on legality. this man doesnt give a f*** about legality. of course we all know he "cant" run for a third term, just like he "cant" deport citizens or ignore the unanimous SCOTUS ruling but hes doing all of that.

i dont have faith that the spineless cowards in congress are gonna do a damn thing except protect their own families. a civil war is absolutely on the table, which is what ive been saying all along.

an uncomfortable amount of people believe completely insane christian nationalist things, and think they are fighting on behalf of god. that is unbelievably dangerous and i just dont think you see the threat for what it is. and culturally, these people are in much larger numbers training with guns, communications and gaining endurance and stamina that the "left", liberals, progressives, etc, have not been doing in anywhere near as large of a number. sure theres liberal/left/progressive gun owners but theyre not doing urban combat drills with their paramilitary buddies. who just got released from prison... the best place to network with people even worse than them.

[asher2789]

Unless the Dems have a majority in the house and senate, one should assume Congress will support him no matter what he does. I don't think the courts are a reliable defense.

It's more complicated than this - his term ends in 2028. Constitutionally he can't run again. In order to legitimize that, he'll need not just Congress, but a Constitutional amendment, which requires 3/4's of state's approval - an impossible bar. If he just tries to stay or rig the election in a very obvious way, the incoming candidate will be declared the winner by SCOTUS and/or Congress. The military will not follow Trump's orders, they'll follow the orders of the candidate declared winner by SCOTUS and/or Congress. That candidate would order Trump to be arrested and removed, and there's no amount of paramilitary force Trump can command that would be able to resist the U.S. military.

Let me start by saying it's unlikely any of this actually happens, but we've never been here before.

Would the US military, at a new Democrat POTUS direction on January 20, order Trump arrested if he wouldn't leave? Hegseth would make this awfully messy as he'll be the 'acting official' for Sec Def on inauguration day. You don't think Hegseth would give conflicting orders to the military, some of which may not have the means to receive POTUS orders directly? How would military men and women know what orders to obey? Hegseth would direct any soldiers disobeying commanders orders to be cuffed and sent to the brig straight away.

Do you think these band of brothers would take action against one another? Dividing units in half - one following POTUS orders and the other following their commanders / Sec Def? Do you really think they'd carry this out ... attacking their brothers in arms who they likely spent boot camp together and years with their brothers families and kids? I think some would take a stand, but once it's clear they're in the minority ... well then we have a crisis.

Hegseth is in the position he's in for a reason and I've yet to hear one that makes sense. Trump has everything to gain and little to lose by giving this a go.

If Trump is successful in carrying out even just one attack against a foe, whether using police, military and/or paramilitary or some other way it will be too late. GOP congressional members will have no choice but to support Trump in order to protect their lives and that of their families. He will be successful and we have empirical evidence to support this conclusion.

I think his own party would remove him if he tried to assassinate anyone. All those GOP senators don't really like him, remember. This kind of thing would be a bridge too far. If Trump used force to try to control Congress, the states would revolt. Imagine California, Massachusetts, New York, and others mobilizing their national guard to protect their congressional delegations. You'd have a civil war, and the military would need to be involved - they would not take Trump's side.

Trump can do a lot of damage and violate a lot of people's rights before his time is up. That's the unfortunate truth. But he's just not capable of overthrowing democracy. I'm not saying it's impossible, just that Trump is too incompetent to pull it off. BTW, I think Trump is well aware that he couldn't pull this off, and he therefore will not try. He might pave the way for the person who eventually does, however.

See above. None of it matters if he creates a crisis and folks are on his side - we were a lot closer than folks wish to admit on January 6.

A lot of what you and I are saying relies on the hearts of men - very unpredictable.

Unfortunately, after January 6, I can't confidently say our military would not be on Trump's side.

hes in his position because hes a white christian nationalist and TV blowhard. he more than likely has behind the scenes ties to white christian nationalist paramilitary organizations, just like former general michael flynn.

[XtremeJibber2001]

U.S.-citizen family 'traumatized' after ICE raided their Oklahoma home in search of someone else

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna203700

The mother and her daughters wrongly targeted had recently moved from Maryland, settling in the rented home in Oklahoma City just a couple of weeks ago — hoping for a slower, more affordable lifestyle, KFOR reported. The father was set to join the family in their new home this weekend.

Though none of the family members were the subjects of the warrant, federal agents raided their home and confiscated their belongings. They took their phones, laptops and all their cash savings as "evidence," KFOR reported.

"I said you took my phone. We have no money. I just moved here,” the mother said. “I have to feed my children. I’m going to need gas money. I need to be able to get around. Like, how do you just leave me like this? Like an abandoned dog.”

[easyrider16]

youre hung up on legality. this man doesnt give a f*** about legality. of course we all know he "cant" run for a third term, just like he "cant" deport citizens or ignore the unanimous SCOTUS ruling but hes doing all of that.

Not quite right. I'm hung up on the support he needs from the military. What I'm positing is that the military will not support him, and without their support, he cannot stay in power. But in order for the military to feel comfortable ignoring his orders and acting to remove him, they need color of law - which will be on their side.

If Trump were a better leader we'd be in much more trouble. But he's an incompetent fool and anybody who works for him for any length of time comes to appreciate that. So when push comes to shove, they won't support him. I mean look at what happened on Jan 6 - his own secret service refused to take him to the protest.

[easyrider16]

Just look at this level of stupidity on full display and tell me you think these people are competent to find their own ass with both hands, let alone overthrow democracy:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-AA1DYhaA
https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-p ... revention/

[XtremeJibber2001]

Waltz is out.

Trump's national security adviser Mike Waltz and his deputy to leave posts in White House
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-mike ... alex-wong/