Here is the latest update

[spinmaster]

Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out the latest forecast. No snowmaking temps for at least the next 7 days. Lets hope for a change!
In the meantime, we'll have more photos of folks in the area gearing up for the season.

[andyzee]

Although it sucks, thanks for the update.

[Killington_Lover]

[skiadikt]

Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out the latest forecast. No snowmaking temps for at least the next 7 days. Lets hope for a change!
In the meantime, we'll have more photos of folks in the area gearing up for the season.

step back from the window skiadikt ...

thanks for the update. wish you had better news. at this point perish the thought but it looks like the 22nd. don't jump ............

[robrules]

Ok, so 7 days takes us to the 17th, leaving about 5 days to get ready for Tgiving. If the weather does not cooperate every day/night in that time frame in order to get the bottom section open, will you open just the top section and figure out a way to get people up and down?

[Stormchaser]

So you're telling me burning one did nothing? Last time I ever do that...

[Killington_Lover]

I should burn my pass :x

[Mister Moose]

Ok, so 7 days takes us to the 17th, leaving about 5 days to get ready for Tgiving. If the weather does not cooperate every day/night in that time frame in order to get the bottom section open, will you open just the top section and figure out a way to get people up and down?

Killington has made it clear that they will only open top to bottom; they have no appetite for trucking people.

In past years, sometimes the first area to get blown was snowshed, instant on, one trail and one lift. Beginner terrain for the holiday.

[Hal U. Dewin]

Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out the latest forecast. No snowmaking temps for at least the next 7 days. Lets hope for a change!
In the meantime, we'll have more photos of folks in the area gearing up for the season.

that's not what you said less than 72 hours ago when you posted "very promising for snowmaking to resume " and then less than 48 hours ago when you posted "The current forecast is now calling for some colder temps on Saturday and Sunday nights "....so, maybe it DOES take a rocket scientist to figure out the forecast, and whoever you're getting your forecasts from ain't no rocket scientist...

this warm-up was telegraphed for over a week before it started by people who don't rely solely on gov't issued forecasts to plan.....wishcasting will only come back and bite you in the ass...it's only November 10th and I can already hear the frustration when the wishcast doesn't go people's way...lol..gonna be a long season...and I don't mean June!!

[Killington_Lover]

^ Uber +1

[robrules]

Ok, so 7 days takes us to the 17th, leaving about 5 days to get ready for Tgiving. If the weather does not cooperate every day/night in that time frame in order to get the bottom section open, will you open just the top section and figure out a way to get people up and down?

Killington has made it clear that they will only open top to bottom; they have no appetite for trucking people.

In past years, sometimes the first area to get blown was snowshed, instant on, one trail and one lift. Beginner terrain for the holiday.

I'd like to see what the mgt. at K says. Tgiving weekend changes the whole dynamic with lots of people coming up with money to burn for lift tickets - not just season pass holders. And they have already stated in another thread that they are looking at ways to allow upper mtn. skiing besides the trucking thing. They could do it without trucking - just some walking/hiking would be necessary - and they already have set a precendence for that (walking necessary from bottom of glades chair to gr northern) the first year they first went to the no trucking policy. They could just make everyone boot it back to the summit - I would have no problem with that scenario.

[Highway Star]

How about a different strategy?

Just for the fun of it, I researched some historical data.

Temperature trends for Oct - Dec since 1960:



Not much global warming going on. Steady to slight decrease in mean temps for the region.

Mean temperatures for VSF, Springfield, Vermont (closest I could find to Rutland). Mean is in blue, last year low is green, last year high is in red.



I would assign KBL about 7 degrees F cooler due to elevation and being a touch further north. The mean low temp now for KBL is about 21 F, and the mean high 38F.

Look at how the swings on average are 10 F, and go as high as 20F higher than mean. This is classic behavior. This time of year you will only get short periods of cold, followed by warm ups.

You either commit to making snow and losing some, or you don't.

By Dec 1, the mean high for KBL is at 30F, and you start keeping most of the snow you make. Notice the 3rd week of November last year was cold, followed by a warm up to 60 degrees. Is that predictable? Nope. You take your lumps.

The typical temperature lapse rate is 4 degrees F per 1,000 feet. This is a large part of why the rockies (Breck base is 9,700) hold snow so much better than Denver (5,280 or 18F difference), and why we all dream of early season in the Glades. They will consistently be 5-7 degrees colder than the base. (inversions excepted).

On average, you can open in the glades 2 full weeks sooner than KBL.

What is 2 weeks early season revenue? Will it pay for a lift addition or modification to get from Glades unload to K-1 terminal? How much image, press coverage and reputation is gained opening 2 weeks earlier?

The only thing I can conclude looking at the graph of last year is the winter was warmer than normal, especially in January and a week in February. Predicting how long the warm ups last and when they will come is pure speculation.

7 day forecasts are junk, offered by TV stations to get you to watch. 10 day forecasts a la weather.com are boldface lies based on some computer's idea of a 'trend'.

My forecast for Thanksgiving: Partly cloudy, high of 35 degrees. See? Anybody can do it.

Given the ever present swings in cold/warm cycles, you pick a start date, and then blow snow every opportunity in between warm ups. Everything else is just spin. Rent a guru if you like for inside track on the weather, but weather 'surprises' just seem to keep on happening.

<end>

Like this:



A. K-1 Gondola, Peak Lodge.
Base Elevation: 2510 ft
Top Elevation: 4100 ft

B. Canyon Quad.
Base Elevation: 2830 ft
Top Elevation: 4015 ft

C. Summit Triple.
Base Elevation: 3395 ft
Top Elevation: 4165 ft
Vertical Drop: 770 ft
Length: 2860 ft

D. Killington Glacier Triple
Base Elevation: 3810 ft
Top Elevation: 4110 ft
Vertical Drop: 300 ft
Length: 1000 ft

WHITE: Skiing terrain available off Summit Triple - Nov. 1st to May 15th
BLUE: Skiing terrain available off Killington Glacier Triple - Oct. 1st to June 30th
YELLOW: Refrigerated ski slopes with summer snowmaking. Skiing Year Round.

Just how much would all this cost HS?

I would ballpark it in the $2 to $3 million dollar range for everything, but it could be done in stages. Lifts are the critical part. Here is how it would break down:

Lift installs/re-config: $750,000-$1,000,000
(install Glacier triple. Run North ridge triple to summit, place drive at bottom)

Trail Cutting: $50,000-$100,000
(new trail cutting on summit, traverse across canyon area - see map)

Snowmaking expansion: $500,000-$750,000
(piping to summit, a very high density of fan forced guns on Cascade Headwall, Upper Downdraft, with additional fan guns around the Summit Triple).

Summer skiing system: $500,000-$1,000,000
(Refrigeration plant, cooling system on trails marked yellow, summer snowmaking system, insulated/waterproof slope covers, drainage barriers)


Goals:

- Extremely early and late season, high elevation skiing seviced by the K-1 Gondola.
- Enable a high elevation (Glacier Triple) opening on 12 hours of snowmaking, with a 2+ foot base depths on Upper Cascade and Downdraft.
- Skiing until mid-June with only a 15-20 ft initial base depth on high elevation areas (Glacier Triple)
- Skiing until May 15th on Summit triple with only a 5-10 ft initial base depth.
- Year-round skiing off Glacier Triple by the use of refrigeration snowmaking technologies

Summer skiing system: $500,000-$1,000,000(Refrigeration plant, cooling system on trails marked yellow, summer snowmaking system, insulated/waterproof slope covers, drainage barriers)

- Year-round skiing off Glacier Triple by the use of refrigeration snowmaking technologies

Please explain further.

I've never tried to refrigerate an outdoor ski slope before, nor am I a HVAC or refrigeration engineer, so bear with me. Summer snow making starts with having a refrigeration plant to provide the cooling, somewhere cooler than freezing, say, the 0 deg F range or lower. Thankfully the ambient temps at 4000 feet are fairly cool over the summer, so it makes it easier and more energy efficient to do the freezing, as opposed to if you were in a hot area. The plant would be used to both to make snow and refrigerate the slopes, and possibly even to heat (on the hot side of the refrigeration cycle) an outdoor swimming pool next to the summit lodge. There are numerous summer snowmaking technologies out there, so I won't address that for now. Chilling the ski slopes is the tricky part. Basically, you would need some sort heat exchangers (aluminum tubes with fins) on the slopes, with subfreezing coolant running through them…..which is an engineering feat itself, making such a system functional.

The 3-4 trails shown in the picture are about 3000 feet in length in total, and lets assume an average width of the chilled area of....50 feet. So that's about 150,000 square feet of trails. Lets also assume it's covered in 3-4 feet of snow, which doing the math, works out to about 20,000 cubic yards of snow and ice that needs to be kept at below 32 F. Assuming 600 lb/cubic yard of snow (ice is 1550 lb/cubic yard), that works out to 6000 Tons of snow. To freeze 6000 tons of water into snow, it would take 1,820,719,950,000 Joules of energy....or about 505,754 Kw hours of energy. At current Vermont rates, that's $40,500.

Now, assuming you had that amount of snow already, and you kept it protected from r*in and ambient temps with proper drainage, baffles, barriers and insulated/reflective/waterproof tarps when not in use, and if you also assume the average ambient temp at 4000 feet in August is 50 degrees F (day/night average, adjusted for elevation), I bet that snow would stick around for about a month or two, without any cooling. This means your cooling requirements are not that bad at all, even after all the inefficiencies. Your entire cooling bill for July through September would probably ballpark in the $100,000-$200,000 range, or so.....not bad at all compared to the cost of running snowmaking, and the theoretical revenues.

If you have 3,000 skier visits per weekend, Friday to Sunday, across 16 weekends July to September, at $35 average per person (summer skiing seasons passes, and $50 day tickets), that's ~$1,700,000 for that period. So the operating economics do work out.

Of course, this is just a very, very rough calculation and you would want to make a much more in depth analysis, but I think it does prove that it is a feasible concept............

[Bubba]

HS...you gonna put that in every related thread?

[laseranimal]

because putting in new lifts is SO feasible for this season, god I bet if all the zoners went up there this weekend we could have all of highway stars plan completed by turkey day

[Stormchaser]

because putting in new lifts is SO feasible for this season, god I bet if all the zoners went up there this weekend we could have all of highway stars plan completed by turkey day

I'll bring my hammer.