a classic buy signal....

[the Disemboweler]

ive heard this same crap for 20+ years everytime theres a problem with the US economy....they said this in 87', 92', 02' & now....

March 3 2008: 3:38 AM ESTDon't expect another bull market
Stock returns may never be the same - at least for this generation of investors.
By Allan Sloan, senior editor at large
(Fortune) -- Although you won't find it listed on your calendar, we're approaching the anniversary of an epochal event. No, it has nothing to do with the NCAA basketball tournament. It's a different kind of March Madness: The end of the bull market that lasted for a generation and changed the way that Americans think about stocks.

When the greatest bull market in U.S. history started in the summer of 1982, only a relative handful of people owned stocks, which were cheap because they were considered highly risky. But by the time the Standard & Poor's 500 peaked in March 2000 amid a fully inflated stock bubble, the masses were in the market. Stocks were magical, a supposedly can't-miss way to pay for your kids' college, save for retirement, enrich employees by giving them options, and regrow hair. (Just kidding about the hair. Alas.)

Stocks might go down in any given year, the mantra went, but in the long term they'd produce double-digit returns. However, one of the lessons of the past eight years is that the long run can be ... really long. As I write this in late February, the U.S. market - which I'm defining as the Standard & Poor's 500 - is well below the high that it set on March 24, 2000. Even after you include dividends, which have run a bit below 2% a year, you've barely broken even, according to calculations for Fortune by Aronson & Johnson & Ortiz, a Philadelphia money manager.

Hello? Eight years of dead money in the broad stock market? How can that be, given that Ibbotson Associates says the S&P has returned an average of 10.3% a year, compounded, since 1926? Think of it as a six-foot man drowning in a pond with an average water level of six inches - if you step in at the wrong place, the water can be eight feet deep.

To be sure (the favorite phrase of us journalistic hedgers), this has been a flukishly bad period. Ted Aronson says that it's in the bottom 2% of the almost 900 different 96-month periods in the Ibbotson statistical universe. Nevertheless, it's the return we have.

Barring a miracle - or the creation of a New Math of the market variety - there's no way we'll ever see a bull market along the lines of what so many of us grew up with. During that enchanted period, the boring old S&P returned more than 19% a year. When you include compounding, your money more than doubled every four years. Pretty slick.

That was more than twice what stocks earned in the previous 56 years, when they returned about 9%. More than half of that was from dividends, which were almost triple their current level.

Roger Ibbotson points out that my eight-years-of-barely-breaking-even number comes from starting at an artificially high point. He's right, of course. Had I had begun with October 2002 - when the S&P bottomed some 49% below its peak - I'd have about doubled my money in less than six years. He predicts total returns of 8% to 9% over the long term, somewhat less than the 9.3% he forecast in Fortune in late 2005. But of course no one knows what stocks will do - other than fluctuate.

I'm reasonably sure, though, that stocks are likely to outperform high-quality bonds in the long term - not much of an accomplishment in a world where 30-year Treasuries yield about 4.5%. However, I don't expect to be able to earn almost 20% a year for 18 years owning an S&P index fund. The long bull market was great. But it's not coming back- at least for this generation of investors. Get used to it.

[XtremeJibber2001]

ive heard this same crap for 20+ years everytime theres a problem with the US economy....they said this in 87', 92', 02' & now....

I can guarantee you haven't heard the same about the USD over the last 20+ years ....

[Snowjob]

?



a classic buy signal............

[G-smashed]

Are you back with the same sh*t AGAIN!!!!
It was sweet while it lasted!
Like a friend of mine said...

Just shut up and ski!

[SPORE]

Are you back with the same sh*t AGAIN!!!!
It was sweet while it lasted!
Like a friend of mine said...

Just shut up and ski!

Take your own advice.

[buzzkill]

Best way to get beat up in these swings is to be a self-styled single
issue trader. Most people don't know preferred stock from livestock
and end up getting burned. Stick with the balanced mutuals and you
can ride out any market.

[Pud in palm]

it just NEVER is gonna stop.......DIS-ertations about dis , DIS-ertations about dat......fer Christs sake....someone get the ducttape...

[Snowjob]

?

[G-smashed]

Are you back with the same sh*t AGAIN!!!!
It was sweet while it lasted!
Like a friend of mine said...

Just shut up and ski!

Take your own advice.

Excuse me???
Who the fuk asked you?
You'r opinion means as much to me as his does so S.T.F.U.

[johnny the jibber]

Are you back with the same sh*t AGAIN!!!!
It was sweet while it lasted!
Like a friend of mine said...

Just shut up and ski!

Take your own advice.

Excuse me???
Who the fuk asked you?
You'r opinion means as much to me as his does so S.T.F.U.

oh no, here we go...

[SPORE]

Are you back with the same sh*t AGAIN!!!!
It was sweet while it lasted!
Like a friend of mine said...

Just shut up and ski!

Take your own advice.

Excuse me???
Who the fuk asked you?
You'r opinion means as much to me as his does so S.T.F.U.

Reading comprehension a little difficult for you?

Do you think I give two shits about what my opinion means to you?

[XtremeJibber2001]

Are you back with the same sh*t AGAIN!!!!
It was sweet while it lasted!
Like a friend of mine said...

Just shut up and ski!

Take your own advice.

Excuse me???
Who the fuk asked you?
You'r opinion means as much to me as his does so S.T.F.U.

Reading comprehension a little difficult for you?

Do you think I give two shits about what my opinion means to you?

G-Smashed is a "do as I say not as I do" kind of guy. You'll get used to it

[the Disemboweler]

Are you back with the same sh*t AGAIN!!!!
It was sweet while it lasted!
Like a friend of mine said...

Just shut up and ski!

Take your own advice.

Excuse me???
Who the fuk asked you?
You'r opinion means as much to me as his does so S.T.F.U.

Reading comprehension a little difficult for you?

Do you think I give two shits about what my opinion means to you?

G-Smashed is a "do as I say not as I do" kind of guy. You'll get used to it

xj....i hear u about the dollar but i also hear the u.s. economy which over history has proven the best in the world....baring any terrorist attacks or any unforeseen events this will be like any other blip....could be at djia 15,000 in 2 years....

[XtremeJibber2001]

More good news ... $200 billion that came from where?

Is it just me or does it seem like the value of the dollar continues to drop as we loan and give more money than we have .... which directly correlates with rising gas prices.

Is this a valid correlation? $109 a barrel!?

Stocks surge on Fed move
Wall Street cheers news that the central bank is pumping an additional $200 billion into the banking system.

March 11, 2008: 10:07 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks surged Tuesday morning after the Federal Reserve said it would loan up to $200 billion to banks and lenders in an effort to loosen up tight credit markets.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) soared more than 250 points in the early going. The blue-chip index had ended the previous session at a 17-month low.

The broader Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index climbed 2.2%. after ending the previous session at a 19-month low. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) jumped 2.3% after ending the previous session at its lowest level in 18 months.

Gains were broad based, with all 30 Dow stocks rising. Financial components JP Morgan (JPM, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) and AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) led the advance.

Stocks tumbled Monday for a third straight session on worries that the financial sector will see more writedowns related to the housing and credit crises. Those concerns remained Tuesday, but were countered by the Fed's plan to keep liquidity flowing in financial markets.

The Fed will make up to $200 billion available to cash-strapped banks and lenders. The loans will be available for a term of 28 days, rather than overnight. The program is being coordinated with central banks worldwide. (Full story)

Investors, cheered by the injection of liquidity into the system, shook off a jump in energy prices. Oil prices surged to a new record trading high of $109.70 a barrel while gas prices hit $3.227 a gallon at the pump, matching the all-time record from last May.

Economic news. The trade gap widened in January, the government reported, but the spread between the nation's imports and exports was smaller than what Wall Street economists had forecast.

The economy will see slower growth this year, as the fallout from the housing market continues to hit consumer spending and job growth, but a recession is avoidable, according to the quarterly forecast from the University of California at Los Angeles.

Company news. Google (GOOG, Fortune 500)'s $3.1 billion bid for online ad tracker DoubleClick got the OK from European Union regulators, who said that the deal won't hurt competition for online ads.

Texas Instruments (TXN, Fortune 500) warned late Monday that first-quarter sales and earnings won't meet forecasts. Shares lost 2%.

Other markets. U.S. light crude oil for April delivery rose 10 cents to $108 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The front-month contract ended the previous session at a record closing high of $107.90.

COMEX gold for April delivery soared $6.40 to $978.20 an ounce.

In currency trading, the dollar touched a fresh record low against the euro and fell versus the yen.

Treasury prices slumped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.57% from 3.45% late Monday as investors took profits. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

[rockon]

Spitzer goes down --> market goes up!